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March 19th, 2012
From New Haven to China’s economic growth is slowing. The one to rely on exit to drive and confronts the global demand of economy it is not surprising. But China will soon face the economic slowdown is controllable and timely,so that the “hard landing” fear is overblown.No doubt,the economic data have low. Purchasing managers index has been close to the “50″ close greatly,and this number has been reflected production expansion and contraction of the demarcation point. And a series of other important index from consumer expectations,monetary supply,the stock market to the iron and steel production,industrial product sales and the number of new projects with a similar downward trend,Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyBut this is not 2008. At the time the world’s business collapsed,the world’s total trade was more likely than 2009 10.7% decline is since 1930 time the most serious crunch. The results of China’s exports from 2008 July 26% annual growth rate in a sudden turn for the worse,to 2009 February 27% decline. Here under the influence of GDP growth rate of only one digit numbers to China and smaller standards even stops growing. At the same time in the export economy dominant Guangdong Province has more than 20000000 migrant workers unemployment. By the end of 2008,China has almost on the verge of total on the brink of recession.But China with large fiscal stimulus measures in early 2009 to get rid of this trouble. But also for the bank funding under the upsurge of investment cost. The local government debt surged,and fixed assets investment occupies GDP ratio approaches 50% there was no parallel in history. People afraid of another banking crisis,worried about the huge asset bubble was about to burst and unable to curb inflation. A grave crisis of Europe and make one disaster after another,so that everything seems to be replayed in 2008.The Chinese peculiar problem has its basis in fact,but it itself does not mean a hard landing occurred. Although the local government at present the total debt of about nearly $1.7,most of which is in 2008 ~ 2009 years owe,and Bank branch and the correlation between these debts will definitely make the amount of bad loans increase. But on loan quality deterioration of fear is a bit exaggerative.The author is with justification for within the next 20 years there were 310000000 rural residents into the city,most of the excess supply of housing will be digested. In the late 1990′s Shanghai Pudong as an example,China today is the “ghost town” in the near future will become the city center. At the same time,in possession of a large deposit banks have enough liquidity to absorb potential losses; the entire banking system loan ratio is only about 65% according to the Perella Weinberg Partners investment bank Xerion study group results,passing before the crisis this ratio will rise to nearly 120% levels.China’s real estate market will not collapse. Yeah,real estate construction heat and excessive speculation situation happened. But for a year and a half ago the government in the process of separating punch pressure blow buy more sets of residential behavior buyers must be second and the third set of housing are respectively 50% and 100% advance payment limit. But although this contain many speculation,prices still remain high in China prompted a growing middle class is still difficult to bear the price.Although the existence of the problem,but the real estate market in China the main imbalance is expected over the next 20 years. Every year the supply and demand imbalance may appear,but are expected to average 15000000 new rural migrant population will put demand pushed up to the level of supply.In addition to inflation have always been China faces serious risk especially in newspaper headlines dominated by the consumer price index (CPI) this summer break 6% mark message when. While the government in four aspects to make a strong response.First of all,the recent overall prices rose factors accounted for nearly half of the food inflation,the government has issued to cut fuel costs and eliminate pork,edible oil and vegetable supply bottlenecks in the administrative measures to deal with. Secondly,in order to curb excessive lending bank,the deposit reserve ratio has in the past 11 months increase 9 times. Third,RMB appreciation has accelerated the pace of. Finally,and perhaps most important pointPeople ‘s Bank of ChinaSince 2010 October has been 5 times raised the benchmark interest rate policy. The current one-year lending rate to 6.5%,than in August reported inflation rate 0.3% higher.If food inflation is reduced further,and publicly reported inflation rate gradually to 3% core (non-food) inflation close to,result is constant prices (inflation) “negative monetary tightening” which is prone to inflation of the Chinese economy in.Above all this implies the existence of a gleam of hope. A growing imbalance in the Chinese economy can maintain 10% growth rate. Unless the crash,or the 2008 outbreak of severe external demand shock is not reproducible,there is reason to believe that China will implement a GDP growth of about 8% soft landing. A move towards a more sustainable development road deceleration phenomenon for China this term is excessive consumption of resources,labor market bottleneck,excess liquidity,huge foreign exchange reserves and inflation pressure troubled economies is a blessing.For China,the recent global situation has a deeper meaning. The export oriented economies had received 3 years since second serious warning. Two largest export destination first is the United States,is now in Europe are in serious problem,cannot continue to be a reliable and sustainable sources of external demand. So people have begun to question China’s strong export-led growth model how to survive.China has no choice,can only be implemented as soon as the”Twelfth Five-Year Plan”The plan of promoting consumption measures. In fact the strategy transformation throughout the modern China,30 years before the economic reforms started once again,now also must achieve this point. For China,a soft landing will provide a window of opportunity,to advance the arduous and urgent with each passing day rebalancing process.Stephen S Luo Aqi lecturer,Yale University,Morgan Stanley Asia Limited non-executive chairman,is also “the next Asian” the author of one book
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March 19th, 2012
Hearing the news and Reuters columnist John – welfare commented that,Huijin holdings to prop up the banking stocks heavily limited role,may be in short-term increase the sense of security and calm investors and depositors.The following is the full text:Huijin holdings of bank shares to boost investment plan at best a band-aid role. It conveys a government will support the big four banks strong signal (four big bank stocks is gradually from the financial crisis when the previous year book value of 1.5 times the minimum level down),but it does not allow them to escape the trouble.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the story Bank of China(601988,Shares) and their counterparts risk faced two. One is the real estate market bubble or rupture,and the bank in the field to face huge risk exposure. Developers are excessive debt management,and is likely to run out of cash,especially during Zhou Guoqing real estate sales year-on-year drop after. Many developers in the short termTrustCompany loan and trust company,rely on the continued stability of the new investors to keep going. If developers bankruptcy,the chain reaction will eventually return to the bank.Another risk is located over active “shadow banking” department. Strict limits on lending to smaller lenders to informal channels,can get cheap loans from the hands of usurious. Credit Suisse estimates,the peer-to-peer market accounts for about 8% of all currency loan. In order to industrial famous Wenzhou,the market is particularly active,Premier Wen Jiabao visited Wenzhou to visit and that calls for restraint “national loan”.Chinese banks face the risk is difficult to quantify. Claims that only 1% of loans bad debts. However,taking into account the loan increases so fast,this number is generally meaningless. If too many default pose a threat to the social stability,structured financial products no matter what eventually may reflect on the banks’ balance sheets,although technically the bank shall not be obliged to support these products.Buying bank shares can not really solve the problem. It may be in a short-term increase in customer’s sense of security and calm investors. But if the worst happens,the state funds can be used to solve as pressing danger,for example through the bank’s balance sheet holes; compared to boost the bank stock prices,it is more urgent.John Foley is area of Breakingviews big China correspondent,stationed in Hongkong. He wrote a thesis involving corporate mergers and acquisitions,capital markets,consumer goods,and luxury goods in areas such as mining. Before joining Breakingviews in 2004,John had a London advertising agency copywriter. John had been in Oxford Aike SciTech university studying English literature.The Reuters Breakingviews columnist,this article only personal views.
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March 19th, 2012
“Global finance” chief editor from Xiang SongzuoFrom September 11th to 25,I went to Luxemburg,Munich,Paris and other European multiple city continuous running,make a hurried journey without stop to participate in various meetings. Luxemburg central bank to participate in the “global financial center: opportunities and challenges” international conference,a German central Cooperative Bank (D Z Bank) and monetary institution Official Forum (OMFIF,I is the agency advisory committee vice chairman) jointly organized the “Europe’s place in the world: new perspectives and new opportunities for International conference,” a famous German think-tank The Stern Stewart Institute (I think tank is the member of the board of directors) to host the “world economy in transition: how to manage the political,economic and market challenges” annual summit,there are a number of smaller,technicality conference. The participants included many political veteran and active characters (such as Canada,Austria,former Prime Minister of Holland and many ministerial officials),a number of central bank president and director,Ministry of FinanceSOM,IMF and EU officials and many well-known large enterprises responsible person (such as Volkswagen,Deutsche Bank,the Allianz Group,De Beers,Bosch group etc.).Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyIn today’s world,global conferences and forums have innumerable,be not at all surprising,make all kinds of remarks,meetings to discuss,essence is to answer the basic questions of our world: what happened? The world really need? In the face of such diverse transformation of the world,countries should how to set the direction,can be towards a better future?Subprime mortgage crisis,the financial tsunami,The debt crisisAnd the European debt crisis,is actually a crisis,that is the excessive consumption,excessive investment and high leverage will inevitably lead to financial crisis. There is no such thing as a free lunch,no people,which family,which enterprise and country,can always rely on debt to gamble at high stakes,lead a gay one’s fling,splurge. Truth was so simple,no economists to analysis,no philosopher to discerning,not politicians to talk with eloquence,people with common sense know,individuals,families,enterprises and the state of the over-extended,will go bankrupt; insolvent have to tighten their belts,not only to suffer,but hard work to repay the debt.However,throughout the world especially in many countries in Europe and America,from politicians to ordinary people,it is not willing to face such a simple truth and knowledge. Politicians are still blandishments,in order to win the election and keep the salary,continue to give voters to unrealistic promises; financiers also rack one’s brains,believe in “financial magic” can create everything; people are naturally reluctant to face the reality: who is willing to take the initiative to reduce wages,welfare cuts,prolong the working time? No wonder the Germans angrily complain: we don’t understand those Greeks and Spaniards,productivity only Germans 1/3,any decent industry also does not have,but enjoying and Germans almost wages and welfare,who would permanently to your allowance? Where in the world have this reason?The United States relies on “dollar superpower” create super privilege,so many countries around the world for her high consumption,high investment,high deficits,high debt financing,as her rampage world military hegemony to pay. However,”to the rivers and lakes on mixed,sooner or later will be back”. The United States of America’s financial deficit and debt scale has reached a turning point,that is difficult to continue not speak in superlatives.Crisis forced all the world’s debt-ridden countries,”must have a straight life (a lower standard of living),face dripping blood (deficits)”. They want to experience a long (perhaps 10 years or more) process of economic structure adjustment,the adjustment of economic structure and political philosophy,spiritual beliefs adjustment adjustment and lifestyle adjustments. Adjustment is painful,it is unavoidable.The world for those high debt financing to emerging market countries,also need to experience the pain of the adjustment. Many emerging market countries faced various problems,than those who suffered debt crisis countries will be many times worse. Especially severe,emerging markets in the global strategic resources (oil,metal ore,water resources,precious metals,food,etc.) without control,on the global monetary system has no important discourse right,on the global high-technology and top brand domain basically has no right to speak. Three “no” decided in the future of the global economy in the process of transition,the emerging market countries and unlike some wishful thinking that,inevitable meeting serves as a bellwether; three “no” decided in the next wave of global economy “fight for territory in ancient Central China” of the fierce competition in the emerging market countries,not as some optimism the prophet claimed,inevitable or early is the winner.We in Munich during the meeting,sponsor company to the latest Audi Audi as conference reception car,participants on the car manufacturing sophisticated,configuration of luxury,all with the praise! On one side is the southern European countries debt crisis,one side is made in Germany,the United States of America refine on world without end,one side is soaring deficits,debt,the side is Apple’s market value approaching $400000000000,ranking thirtieth in the world “economy”. We need to build a what kind of world? The original is so stick out a mile — is the return to the fundamentals of the time.
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March 19th, 2012
Page first: the emergence of usury reasonPage second: clean usurious loan riskPage third: solve the problem of usury Cass financial experts Yin Zhongli (data plan) Yin Zhongli(CASS finance expert)At present,in the face of civil usury capital catenary to rupture the growing phenomenon,many people put relaxed monetary policy. So,why is there the usury? Loosening of monetary policy is able to save and to eliminate civilian usury? We from the last century 90′s experience,the answer may be found.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe reason appears.From about the beginning of 1993,China had a turn of usury agitation. Then Shenzhen city some bank deposit interest rate above 25%,loan interest rate more than 30%,and today’s civilian usury is almost the same. At that time,city credit cooperatives can get high interest rates,TrustCompanies,securities companies are actively involved,and many of the commercial bank also joined the ranks. Many commercial bank branches to manage outside the account,Shekou in Shenzhen have a bank branch in the Zhang outside to operate a total of about 2000000000 yuan,the number was over Shenzhen was a big bank branch traffic. The country has also appeared in Wuhan,Haikou capital exchange center,members of units are the national commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions,the lively degree is not worse than now.Then why usury? Funds from the demand side,is mainly caused by the loose monetary policy in 1992. At that time the whole nation a frenzy of investment,investment,monetary,credit growth rate of more than 35%. One year after the onset of significant inflation,to 1993 June to undertake macroscopical adjusting control,the main measure is to tighten credit,and rectify the financial order. Money and credit in the relaxed after the sudden tightening of the inevitable,capital insecurity,many city appeared “uncompleted residential flats”,the most typical is Hainan and Guangxi in Beihai City,the “uncompleted flats” until ten years after clearing. In the early of monetary tightening,businesses and individuals often unprepared,still in its expected bubble rising status,then at all costs to raise funds to become their common choice.Therefore,we can see clearly,money and credit in relaxing after the tightening process,inevitable usurious phenomenon. 2011 the prime cause of usury,was the beginning of the end of 2008′s loose monetary policy,there is no essential difference between 1993 and 1994. FromThe people’s Bank of ChinaPublished social financing total watch,2009 and 2010 social financing total in 14 trillion yuan,social financing total amount accounts for around 50% of total investment,that is to say there are about half of the investment financing needs to solve. In accordance with this ratio calculation,the total investment amount should be in 2011 32 yuan,need 16 yuan financing,but in 2011 the total financing must reach the scale,the overall funding necessary tension. In the overall financing environment under stressful conditions,large state-owned enterprises,the state key projects and local government are the focus of the project is the bank priority attention object,the small and medium-sized enterprise financing only to private lending market by usury to solve the financing gap.Funds from the supply side,mainly is the state-owned commercial banks and state-owned enterprises. They are the capital owner,these institutions are keen to fry capital is the most important motivation for small collective or individual profiteering. The unspoken rules of the market is higher than the state interest on the part of take a one-time cash back,if a company will be 10000000 yuan of funds the existence of credit agency,deadline is 1 years,agreement deposit rate assumption 30%,managers can get the cash amount is 1900000 yuan,the cash is actually equivalent to the rebate. Because of the state-owned enterprises and the internal management of the banks,confusion in loose,huge rebates under the temptation,many chief executives of state-owned enterprises and commercial bank executives involved in the adventure game.After the reform of commercial banks and state-owned holding enterprises,internal management has been greatly improved,however,commercial banks and state-owned holding enterprises in this round of usury in upsurge still play an important role in commercial banks: retrofit of all kinds of financial products and trust companies issuing trust products,become a disguised usury products,the use of credit advantage of state holding enterprises generally when a money broker.
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March 19th, 2012
Yi ZhouSmall and medium enterprises in Wenzhou to “run away” and “jump off building” phenomenon is highlighted,government procurement to support small and medium-sized enterprise topic has been given more attention.To be sure,from policy design target,in the budget clear product of medium and small businesses share,for small and medium enterprises credit guarantee system construction of participating in government procurement,lower threshold,increase the bid evaluation preferential,is the perfect government procurement system,policy system,perfect the tax support means,alleviate the predicament of medium and small businesses. Important measure.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyHowever,each kind of policy has its characteristics. In the expectation of government procurement more at the same time,had to face the government procurement market presence of natural “glass door”.One,the demand from the market structure,the scope of government procurement is relatively narrow,mainly in the IT,automotive technology maturity high product. These products,the vast majority of small and medium enterprises especially small enterprises blind area,which resulted in the government procurement market demand and supply of small and medium-sized enterprises “two pieces of skins” phenomenon.Secondly,the government procurement with strong public attribute,so to provide goods and services supplier qualification and conditions put forward more requirements,such as having the ability to independently bear civil liability,a good business reputation and a sound financial accounting system for performance of the contract,the necessary equipment and professional technical ability. The organizational structure is not perfect,the lack of business credit accumulation and other small businesses,this is a very difficult to cross the threshold.Thirdly,the government procurement is the core spirit of fair competition. This requires that all businesses,regardless of size,strength,follow the same principles and standards,equality participates in market competition. And if on small and medium-sized enterprises to more “exception”,it is likely to be the cause of other enterprise discrimination.Fourthly,the government procurement in essence is a kind of special commodity trading behavior,its give aid to focus on enterprise capital link,and many small and medium enterprises funding needs to occur in production input link,and the government procurement cycle is longer,contract payment shall comply with strict time program,so the government procurement contract funds tend to be “distant water cannot quench thirst”. Moreover,the scale of government procurement is limited,”little congee porridge,but the” limited contract,does not have sufficient funds to really change the small and medium-sized enterprise survival and development status.Due to these characteristics,the government procurement to support the small and medium-sized enterprise objective selection and policy design problem is very important.With the financial policies of the flexible means to get instant results,the characteristics of different,government purchase is a kind of relatively fixed,apparent effect lag and effect in a long period of policy tools,the main policy effect manifests for the indirect effect and long term effect. Therefore,cannot rely on government procurement solution to small and medium enterprises a livelihood problem.However,through government procurement policy to solve the long-term development problem,namely the establishment of incentive mechanism to stimulate and guide,and guide SMEs to go on with the national strategy and direction of industrial development was consistent with that of a benign development road,is our continuous pursuit of the goal.
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March 19th, 2012
Economic Herald commentator Lan HengminA small spark can spread into fire? To answer this question,might be the best way to find from the source — Wall Street volatile what is the cause?The apparent reason,American economic downturn makes the United States in the middle and lower the lives of many people into predicament,sense of failure,frustration,helplessness fuelled by anger,prompting the 99% people walk up Wall Street,to 1% “handful” and support the “handful” of politicians seeking justice. Life is hard is the outbreak of the economic basis of demonstrations.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyFinancial crisis in Europe and the United States have a common characteristic: industry relative to the hollow of the. Competition caused world economy industrial transfer,used to support the western industrial civilization to coal,oil,iron and steel,machinery,chemical,automotive,textile and other traditional industries,large-scale from developed countries to developing countries. When the people in the developing world are hardworking industrial time,westerners prefer to play a casual play,creativity,play “love 4″,the biggest interest is certainly play money — through the virtual economy to create “money money” myth. While Europe and the United States as long as people can maintain a comfortable life,does not care about their money was a farmer to buy a mutual fund,or mug earned. Europe and the United States economic problems,the most fundamental or by the entity economy too fast atrophy and the excessive expansion of virtual economy caused by.Does the government have not aware of? Of course not. The problem is,the government is “limited government”,generally do not intervene in view and microcosmic economy runs. Such as China,led by the government to the industrial structure,regional economic structure are initiative to adjust,to the west is unimaginable. The uncontrolled free competition caused the free fall.The demonstrators accused the government of Wall Street too much greed,sit back and watch the wealth distribution extreme imbalance can attempt nothing and accomplish nothing. However,the government is not they had with the most democratic approach to vote elected? The democratically elected government of life depends on public support,but after taking the government but does not necessarily represent the interests of the public. This makes us think of what Marx called “alienation”. Alienation,is “crooked”,common ground is told,is creating something,it was this thing that control. The public chose to government,the government for public.Ballot politics and political power has two now: one is not well balanced short-term interest and long-term interests,two is not well balanced the interests of various groups of conflict. To please the public,political parties should as far as possible to the public’s current interest,ignore the long-term interests of the United States of America — we’ve seen 4 times a year in the general election,but never saw the United States has”The 12th Five-Year Plan”. To please the public as much as possible,the government will be afraid of any possible violations of one group benefits of the reform,and more use of “sugar” approach to conceal contradictions,no sugar went next door to borrow. The United States 14 trillion public debt is that to.The ruling party like the two wife turns home cooking: to please the family,the wife always on duty as much as possible to use light refrigerator the best ingredients,even at the cost of debt. As for her leaving the refrigerator only turnip Chinese cabbage,even account deficit,it is a daughter-in-law. Not only that,she left the mess also as attack a daughter-in-law cooking “performance” poor weapons. In conclusion,ballot politics inherent defects,encourages the public to eat next year’s food and social wealth oligarch concentration,Wall Street the cause of turbulence is inherently political rather than economic issues. The same root withInternetThe rapid spread of the unrest,over Wall Street,Jin sweep the whole Europe and the United states.Then,the death of a solution?
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March 19th, 2012
Text / EPeople in the questioning of UBS’s internal risk control system,have hypothesized that UBS damaged products trading truth.Financial derivatives market is not as the subprime crisis dormant,investment just from inside and into the fire.In September 15th,Union Bank of Switzerland pre-release brief statement,said the investment bank traders illegal operations caused about $2000000000 in damage. 18,UBS again issued a statement,will last 3 months of the illegal trading losses amount to $2300000000. Evil aura,September 14th,Goldman Sachs Group’s asset management company (Goldman Sachs Asset Management) announces,will end at 10 before closing the global Alfa (Global Alpha) hedge fund. Encounter winding brand fund,was a a pearl in the palm at.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyBecause of the financial derivatives market large-scale reduction,the event was not triggered the global financial market turmoil,but the phenomenon is once again declared free of financial derivative products,investment banks to create good days gone for ever.The British “Financial Times” columnist pointed out,this is crazy expansion Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) to blame. The current ETF has been with our understanding of the ETF distinct investment varieties,is a series of derivative portfolio investment plan,known as the “synthesis of ETF”.Synthesis of ETF and subprime product in essence is similar,the design of products including derivatives,a superb collection of beautiful things of product,market of 45% ETF is called swap baseline ETF,usually with derivative financial agreement,by the investment bank design,in order to avoid the risk of a counterparty,need to buy other products to hedge risks,or for the pursuit of profit,holding the liquidity is very low assets,led to the transmission chain is very complex,the so-called hedge means most of the time people cheat oneself,risk is weak link shake and crumble.After financial crisis,investment banks to ETF replaced the notorious repute subprime derivative,but does not dissipate.Early in April this year,the International Financial Stability Board (Financial Stability Board,FSB) was named “written by recent Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) recent trends to potential financial stability” article,the ETF warned,that ETF is no longer trusted both cheap and transparent trading tools. UBS Jukui,soon proved their prophetic vision.As long as the risk mechanism does not change,financial derivatives and hedging risk difficult to eliminate,the trader will emerge in an endless stream,so that ordinary people more aversive financial derivatives.ETF investment has been pursued,because hot money effect. The industry is expected to 2012,2010,from Delta Wall Street 1 of the income of the average growth of 9%. The UBS the devil traders a Bo for a short five years rapidly go up in the world,from trainee to stardom traders,yearly salary of seven digits. In three years ago,FranceIndustrial Bank(601166,Shares) “devil trader” Kerr Weyer (Jerome Kerviel) the same effectiveness SG Delta 1 trading.The event will lead to Europe and the United States and other countries especially further European exercising strict control of financial derivatives transactions,until the high risk,high leverage transactions become unprofitable,in fact,these traders coming only to Singapore,Chinese Hongkong to make a living.Goldman closed globe Alfa (Global Alpha) is a hedge fund,internal risk control problem,”potential can also”. According to the report,the global Alfa fund was established in 1995,to quantify the transaction,according to a computer model for the tiny profit opportunities,and long term capital management company’s investment philosophy is similar,in 2005,the fund rose high up to 38%.Some people attributed to SwitzerlandCentral bank. It is in September 6th the Swiss central bank decision,the Swiss Franc exchange rate and the exchange rate of Euro hook,let more person money against the Swiss franc. Due to financial leverage to 30 times to 50 times,market fluctuations will lead to the butterfly effect.Irrespective of the fact is it right? So,central banks intervene directly in exchange rate,direct government intervention in bulkFuturesPrice,means that the market price can not be expected,quantitative trading methods will be increasingly into the storage box.Strict supervision,administrative pricing system,coupled with investment banking greed,common ruin the financial derivatives market.(TanProminent financial commentators)
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March 19th, 2012
Text / Zhu DamingChina’s foreign exchange reserves great cause world coveted,but China maintain such huge foreign exchange reserves is have no alternative against one’s will. Davos ForumOpening,Wen Jiabao stressed at the meeting,the European sovereign debt crisis,we repeatedly said that China is willing to lend a helping hand,continue to increase investment in europe. The author also hope that,the European Union will boldly from the strategic point of view to China-EU relations,such as the recognition of China’s full market economy status.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe premier said China is very substantial foreign exchange reserves,natural causes the world to China,but to maintain such huge foreign exchange reserves is have no alternative against one’s will: the Chinese foreign trade suffered protectionism blocking,at least to some extent lost the purpose of mutual exchange of needed products trade. Many countries restrict exports,leading to China’s foreign exchange reserves are constantly being virtual,not to the implementation of specific goods and technology.China in 2008 after the outbreak of the financial crisis,reflected new world economic leading position. However,China also paid heavy price,China’s foreign exchange reserves accumulated more more high,too much foreign exchange and domestic natural resources rises in price cause money super-fat,China to control inflation and market increasingly high pressures. Now the new crisis stage a comeback,we have already pointed out,China already but fire blue,printing too much,don’t expect China once again attempt to save the world.Therefore,whether the United States or the European debt debt,buy now is in buy “white”.First,Europe and the United States have been unable to guarantee its own currency stability,allowing Chinese to buy their bonds equal to China will bind,go down together. We think,want to help China in Europe,European countries must change to limit exports,selling China needed goods and technology,rather than people not things,not sold to China. This is also the world trade intention,but is the mutual exchange of needed products law,be those powers are arbitrary change lost their original appearance,China suffered terrible loss.In second,China prices and rising prices have reached the point where the pressure,incapable of further increase,China needed for growth,is “the quality of growth”,but not “drainage oil type” growth,more than the printing advance digital game-based growth.In the opinion of the author,the shadow banking system is equal to the second printing presses,rescue Chinese private enterprises from the usurer and lower prices and property prices,buy bonds is more important than Europe and the United states. Chinese private enterprises have become the basis of China’s economic take-off,and hundreds of millions of Chinese people and the most practical jobs,China has a large number of small and medium enterprises closed down,then,China’s unemployment rate actually reach what kind of level,could not imagine.In third,the international bank doctrine prevalent today,China must be “hold”. Our “hold” live,be equal to the growth of the world economy has made a significant contribution. The United States to make printing principle,global fed on credit continues to decline,will eventually pay. In Europe,the same.The printing,manufacturing debt crisis and asset bubbles,making the financial crisis is the arch-criminal,scourge resident invisible killer.ObamaStimulus policy why is impeded,the reason is very simple,even the Americans who have seen printing doctrine absurd logic and harm. So,don’t expect China to Europe and the United States to buy those banknote printing machine print even white as well as bond. China’s monetary policy should consider the state of the real economy,especially should be corrected for lending structure. DavosThe forum is an international economic conference,should support some real action for the global economy,not some trick. Printing “which is a trick,is a global one can tolerate does. Real growth is more important than money growth,substantial increase more than money more important,this is a new round of debt crisis to the global each person’s information.((Zhu DamingBlog,Micro-blogChina Senior Financial Review.))
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March 19th, 2012
Text / Yi XianrongAfter more than a year’s macro-control of real estate,although the first-tier cities housing sales decline,prices fell,but the prices rising trend has not changed.A recent official three statements,which showed the government is right of current macro control of real estate firm,adumbrative also China short-term real estate market trend. Premier Wen Jiabao is written recently civil point out,the domestic the orientaton of macroscopical adjusting control won’t change,and to ensure that the real estate macro-control results; two is the earlier in the second city popular sales order began to line three or four city promotion; three is the nationalAdministration of TaxationIs planning to amend the real estate tax system.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe current real estate market in China is still in the investment as the leading market,if the price does not change,to curb real estate speculation is impossible. Under the situation of not high prices,foam extrusion,but in earlier years a second-tier city real estate bubble blowing big flow of the three or four line of the city,the real estate market to further expand the huge financial risk. The author estimates,this is the recent government purchase of that city to the three or four line extension of the reason,is also the government has been emphasized in the real estate macro-control will not relax in the key of.However,the changes in the prices of several phenomena worthy of close attention. One is the first-tier cities prices may have loose,such as Beijing Tongzhou some project in the house to cut,but this change was not universal. The current real estate market expectations did not change,especially in the current still is dominant with investment market,if the effect of money does not change,then investors will still expect prices to rise and fall. In this case,although the housing sales dropped significantly,but the majority of investors will put in the hands of the housing covers more closely. Two from theBureau of StatisticsThe published data,since this year the 70 big city prices basically in a stalemate situation,i.e.,the current many city prices do not rise or fall. But the difference between the actual situation may be larger,especially the three or four line of the city house price rises situation did not change. Three is a lot of city housing sales decline,this means that the real estate business fund chain there will be tension,and the fight against real estate developers for the future market confidence,this city from many recent emergence of a large number of land auction result remarkable,local government land leasing overall reduction. In this case,although the market is expected to appear likely to,but the local government may not be willing to,because it concerns the land finance faces big problems.Premier Wen recently the author actually is quite clear,in the face of the current domestic and international market uncertainty increases,the central government will not again in 2008 that the current real estate macro-control reversal. The central level recently,pushing the top two real estate policy basically with the prime minister the same spirit.One is the property purchase restrictions to three or four lines extending to city,government hoped that the policy to curb housing speculation. However,with the administrative control to limit the housing speculation,role remains to be observed.Two recent stateTaxTotal bureau expresses to intensify the revision of real estate tax regulations. If you can cancel the domestic housing tax excessive preferential policies,or housing tax policy a bit a bit harsh,real estate speculation will be a fundamental solution,hoping to introduce fair degree high number of new tax system.In conclusion,from the central level a firm position of view,the highest and decision-making layer is very clear the current domestic real estate bubble tremendous risk. But to give up the real estate market tool (the real estate market is economic growth is important tool) is to have greater resolution. Determined to squeeze real estate bubble in real estate and removal effect of money,have strongly change the current housing mortgage credit conditions,such as further improving housing mortgage loan interest rate,reduce the leverage ratio and change the financing conditions,really let the housing speculation author did not dare to enter the housing market and let the entrants to exit. This requires from including real estate transfer,holding,transfer each link proceed with.(Yi XianrongChinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher of Institute of Finance)
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March 19th, 2012
According toDepartment of CommerceReleased in October 7th,monitoring information display,came 7 days on October 1st,the Ministry of Commerce focus on monitoring of the national retail and catering enterprises with sales of 696200000000 yuan,than 2010 “eleven” golden week 17.5% growth.Specific to the industry,gold jewelry lasts “outbreak” became the biggest point of golden week consumption.According to incomplete statistics,YinchuanXinhua Department Store(600785,Shares),XinjiangFriendship group(600778,SharesJiangsu Central Asia Department Store),gold and silver jewelry sales year-on-year growth of 102.8%,69.4% and 67.3%. From Shanghai town business appoint data show that,in the golden week,gold and silver jewelry’s overall growth has reached a staggering 52.6% times than any other industry,the growth rate of.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyGold jewelry consumption become the domesticConsumption growthThe outbreak,this lets a person have some unexpected.An acquaintance in the golden week discount period,to prepare for the coming wedding,bought expensive jewelry and diamond ring.”Anyway,the future should rise in price,buy now.” For his purchase motive,the friend explains. But ask around people,it is not difficult to find,buy jewelry in gold,except in the heart of a sense of superiority,the main reason is to “investment”.At that moment,I seem to be returned to that familiar scenes. These scenes include: 2005,the stock speculation fever 2008 tide,and this year’s folk lending boom.Gold jewelry,as a commodity,essentially in addition to decorate,no real role. While respecting its investment properties,in addition to the tedious process and larger cash exchange wreck,more wealth can only stay on the paper and psychological.Master of investmentBuffettNever bullish on gold,he used a metaphor expressed their attitude. “In accordance with the current gold,gold can change all of the United States of America farmland,plus 10ExxonMobil,plus $1 in cash. Would you like to choose which one? Who can produce more value?”But now the domestic jewelry gold consumption growing trend,let a person faint worry,Chinese consumption data growth behind,how many traps.A valuable data is,even though this year’s National Day golden week to maintain a high growth rate,but this week is from 2008 to speed the minimum of a eleven golden week (2010 year-on-year growth of 18.7%). Traditional consumption mode such as food,clothing,household appliances are more or less slowdown or worse than expected.I wish,on gold and jewelry spending spree just flower briefly as the broad-leaved epiphyllum.
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March 19th, 2012
Macroscopical economy of Wang Jian of secretary-general of societyField of visionChinese macroscopical economy institute Wang JianOn speeding up the pace of opening up to recent RMB talk more,but the author thinks,at present and not RMB open well time. This is because,the international economy is entering a new period of fluctuation,and might take a long time.The author in the previous article has repeatedly demonstrated,the American inferior debt crisis did not last,because the last crisis form a huge toxic assets and not be digested,but after three years of recession,has accumulated more toxic assets. For example,the foreclosure at the end of 2008 was only 2000000,but by the end of 2010 has soared to 5400000 set. Because the house price in the subprime crisis has dropped 35%,there are approximately 85% housing loans households prices has been lower than the mortgage,so according to the American related mortgage agency estimates,there may be more than 20000000 loans households will throw the bank refused to continue the housing loan,the United States sub-loan crisis the most serious moment is still behind. The author thinks,the United States has entered a new crisis of three point basis:Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyFirst,the money supply in the United States this year,especially the 7,8 and two months suddenly increase. Since the new millennium,the United States of America’s broad money M2 year all increase in the amount of 350000000000 dollars on the 2008,in order to save the market suddenly increased to $750000000000,but from the beginning of this year to 9 at the beginning of this period of time,the Fed will put $744000000000 in currency,which nearly $500000000000 is 7,8 and two months running. In 2008 the rescue,the Fed monthly amount invested up to no more than 100000000000 dollars. According to the current running speed,this year the United States M2 increases the forehead will exceed $1. If no new outbreaks in the crisis,the Fed would put so much money? The fed the purpose of doing so is to those who face new liquidity crisis financial institutions emergency blood transfusion,lest they fall into massive debt default. They fixed their eyes on the QE3,but QE3 is for financing,and fed to the United States of America financial institutions financing large-scale action already keep secret for.In second,the United States financial institutions while external blockade news,but the financial circle each other inside or understand,so when a number of financial institutions again after the crisis,these stocks will be sold,which is triggered by year 8 since early American stock market volatility and the real reason. For example,from August 1st to October 1st,Bank of America’s stock fell 50%,Citigroup shares fell 43%,the whole financial plate fell 25%,significantly higher than the same period in the Dow’s 10% decline.U.S. stocksSince 8 since early fall,is actually caused by financial stocks led the fall,financial sector tumbled reflects the United States financial domain new crisis.In third,the United States government in 2008 the rescue,has issued a $825000000000 fiscal stimulus,but that is to be used within three years. RecentlyObamaThe government announced plans to implement a new fiscal stimulus,the amount amounts to 447000000000 dollar,this money is basically to be used within one year,more than the last visible stimulus. In addition,the United States government also announced that,for the United States to repatriate profits overseas enterprises implement big tax cuts,this policy also in 2008 subprime crisis before taking action. If the United States did not face a new crisis,why should we adopt in the crisis when the use of fiscal policy?From long-term look,the United States government regardless of fiscal and monetary policy,are difficult to quickly get out of the trap of toxic assets,financial asset bubble caused by the balance sheet of the imbalance,and ultimately rely on entity economy has profit to fill. The specific point of view,the United States of America real debt in general is the United States since the new millennium formed a trade deficit,about $7,while the American entity economy produces an annual profit,including overseas part is under $500000000000,so at least to fill 10 years to fill,this is why the Japanese asset bubble burst in to spend 15 years to get out the reason. In the United States thoroughly solve the balance sheet imbalance contradictions in the long process,the United States economic and financial market the repeated shocks and long-term depression is inevitable trend. The United States government will continue to take new measures,including increasing day supply of dollars,so that the value of the dollar is very unstable,the international financial market and the exchange relations is very unstable.The international economic environment is not stable,accelerate the pace of RMB internationalization is facing many risks,mainly lies in: first,the internationalization of RMB and the opening up of the capital market of developed countries closely linked,to rescue the market continued to expand the volume of currency,the huge amount of virtual money will through various channels to enter the capital market of China,thereby controlling the Chinese physical assets. Japan has recently introduced the “active exchange rate of yen” strategy,one goal is to give up on the yen exchange rate intervention,and actively use of yen appreciation of the benefits to increase quality overseas asset holdings,and take China as the key object; secondly,if the external economic environment is extremely unstable when allow international free capital import,international economic malignant fluctuations will more directly influence China economy,and mainly through the massive international capital inflow and outflow,cause China’s economy to boom changes,so that China’s macro-control more variables and difficulty; third,to the China international economic position,after the opening of RMB will appear strong appreciation,while the external economy is long-term low confused situation is bound to China’s export growth form long suppressed,so at this time to open renminbi,Chinese economy is one disaster after another.In the future international economic relations in great changes,China’s real strategic interest is the use of the world economy may be entering a long depression of opportunity,attract more international resources,accelerate the industrialization pace. So there is no need to use the RMB internationalization way,to address the growing foreign exchange reserves brought about by domestic financial difficulties,but we should try to spend at least in foreign exchange reserves,the new reserves for the purchase of overseas resources and technology,this is the right choice in the currency issue.If China in the next twenty years to finish industrialization basically,its material total output accounted for the proportion of the world will have the United States after World War II status,which will become the strong support for internationalization of rmb. This worldwide financial crisis,the final destination,will still be the currency to objective regression,therefore,has the largest physical output scale of national currencies,will become the world’s new master.CFP picture synthesis / Wang Li
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March 19th, 2012
Each time history repeats. The United States domestic economic recovery,the RMB exchange rate has once again become the United States of America shifting domestic crisis and contradictory tools. The economic prosperity of the time,the United States of America “in other people’s money to send their own rich”; the economic recession,the United States of America “in other people’s money to distract themselves from the risk”.Dollar global economic circulation is dependent on two approaches: one is the direction of trade surplus trade deficit to trade the payment brings the current account capital flow; two is the trade surplus will accumulate foreign assets to invest in the trade deficit of China’s financial assets financial account of capital flow. The two form a complete economic cycle. Relying on the two cycle,the United States of America continuously to a global “dollar hegemony tax”,just “the hegemony of US dollar to RMB Taxation Tax” is a part of.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyFirst,the dollar as a reserve currency collection seigniorage. In the US dollar hegemony in context,seigniorage is the core concept. The United States by the issue of paper money to buy foreign goods and services can be cheap,use of foreign central banks reserve assets,even if the foreign currency capital return form of domestic inflation and asset bubbles in the United States,also can output monetary capital transfer of economic bubble,which is the current global financial crisis situation.In addition,the dollar as a reserve currency for the debt for external financing,make debt economy can get international circulation. Enter since twenty-first Century,the United States overseas holding bonds scale and proportion has increased year by year,bond issuance amount accounts for 32% of the world. 2003-2009 during the years,the United States debt rate is respectively 62.3%,70.4%,75%,83.6%,95.4%,95.2% and 95.9%,2009 with compared 2003 increased 33.6 percentage points,at present,the United States overseas debt soared to $14.5.Not only that,the United States still use the “dollar valuation effects”,through debt monetization or disguised devaluation increase national wealth. On one hand,as the currency issuing country,the United States can be through the issuance of currency in order to perform foreign obligations or dilution of external debt burden,namely through the reserve currency depreciation in breach of its obligation to pay debt. Only 2002-2006 years,the United States foreign debt amount totaled $3.58.Since the financial crisis in the United States,two quantitative easing is the essence of debt monetization,fed with a huge Treasury purchase plan to support global mobility strategies,the acceleration of global wealth transfer and redistribution. The global foreign exchange reserves in 2009 is 13% of global GDP,of which more than 60% dollars,or 5 trillion dollars. On 2009,foreign hold the United States of America’s total assets,not including the financial derivative products,has reached the United States 1.25 times the nominal GDP. The depreciation of the dollar would make the reserve money considerably impairment,purchasing power to shrink seriously.Secondly,the dollar as the currency to a global inflation tax. The current global 1/3 countries inflation and overheating,2/3 developed economy hasten is cold or still in recession in the shadow. Emerging economies with quantitative tightening confrontation developed the quantitative easing monetary policy,causing the imbalance. Unbalanced monetary policy,not only makes the most emerging economies international purchasing power and the domestic purchasing power deviation,face “foreign revaluation,the depreciation” corner,also contributing to Global trade imbalances,and further increase the imbalances in the global economy,especially the growing imported inflation pressure on emerging economies the entity economy and the manufacturing cost is more significant impact,is tantamount to the inflation tax levy.Once again,the US dollar as the currency investing capital gains tax. With the United States to industrialization increasingly thorough and current account deficit expands increasingly,the United States of America’s economic growth momentum growing from the production and trade shifted to financial economic growth,the United States through the large number of foreign long-term investment to obtain huge economic interests. The United States foreign assets and liabilities of the larger gains,but the risk values vary widely,suggesting that the United States foreign investment mainly concentrated in high yields of risky assets,and foreign debts are mainly focused on the safety of low income. The United States relies on the dollar this International Center of monetary and financial division of the strategic advantage of access to the globalization in wealth distribution maximum income,capital gains to become the United States to obtain a global surplus value is the maximum channel.In fourth,the dollar as the settlement currency trading tax levy. Dollar dominated international monetary system consists of three pillars,namely the exchange rate mechanism,international fluidity supply mechanism and often imbalance adjustment mechanism. The United States of America in the control of exchange rate decision and international liquidity supply right at the same time,targeting the international trade imbalances. Therefore,the United States to recast “often balance adjustment way”,to borrow the hegemony of US dollar will “dollar standard system” evolved into the “American Standard”,dollar cycle will further determines the global economic cycle. The global economy has serious derailment,the United States under the guise of a rebalancing of the global economy,the Sino-US exchange rate problems escalated. As early as last year the G20 summit in Seoul the United States of America throws “quantification of global economic balance operation plan”,to China,Germany and other surplus countries were censored,and hope that through the currency against the dollar to achieve collect trade tax purposes.Finally,”dollar hegemony tax” also includes the crisis transfer tax. The current global virtual economy and real economy and festivals become more and more serious,now a manufacturing center has gradually from developed countries to emerging market countries,but the monetary and financial center is still in the developed countries. Developing the underdevelopment of the financial market,the financial system is relatively weak,in the foreign trading long-term dependence on reserve currency valuation,settlement,loans and investment,currency mismatch caused by the exchange rate and asset risk is inevitable. At present,in order to attract capital of $reflux,fed by selling short buy long “reverse operation”,create artificial “dollar shortage” illusion,short-term dollar demand surge caused the dollar appreciation. In the strong dollar established cases,higher yielding currencies as well as the non-beautiful currency sharply lower,Brazil,South Korea and other emerging economies,currency or huge,capital from emerging market withdrawal led to a serious loss of capital wealth. Therefore,countless facts prove that,it is the United States in the global economic imbalances in the use of “dollar hegemony tax” to get the greatest benefit allocation.
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March 19th, 2012
Hongkong is to promote the internationalization of RMB this chess game of choice. This is because Hongkong has international financial network,has the advantage of be richly endowed by nature. However,Hongkong may not be long time to benefit from the internationalization of RMB,but Hongkong can use the RMB internationalization,try for the future lay more solid foundation.Can be expected,5-10 in the future years,Hongkong will be the internationalization of RMB plays an important role in the process,namely “offshore RMB center”. However,along with the future exchange rate reform,when Renminbi achieve approximately the convertibility and capital account opening time,the onshore and offshore respectively will become meaningless,two markets will be the realization of the basic communication and com.,the onshore and offshore prices and interest differences also exist no longer. Then the RMB internationalization process largely completed,Hongkong will retire after winning merit. At that time,the world’s largest RMB center should not Hongkong,but Shanghai or other inland city.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storySince only the 5-10 years,Hongkong can only use the RMB internationalization initiatives for the future,try to lay more solid foundation. In a series of measures,there are three aspects of market concern,namely,the renminbi RMB FDI QFII (RQFII) andHong Kong stocksETF.From the evolutionary perspective,the renminbi FDI forerunner is a Hong Kong enterprises,while the RQFII pioneer is the mainland financial institutions in Hong kong. However,from a long-term point of view,how to attract other countries and regions of the multinational corporations to Hongkong using the FDI platform,is the Hongkong established long-term status of the important strategy. Otherwise,the FDI will become in port inland enterprise a financing Arbitrage (offshore financing cost is low,then the renminbi on the mainland). Therefore need to pay attention to is not the renminbi FDI scale,but the international and representative. Similarly,the author thinks that RQFII should take the world’s most important financial mechanism as the object,active promotion,should not be too narrow. When the different financial institutions in Hongkong to participate in the business of RMB,RMB can accelerate the internationalization.Hong Kong ETF (trading fund portfolios) is a domestic efflux mechanisms,known as “small train”. Mainland brokerages in the mainland Hong Kong stock exchange can hang out ETF,let the public in the mainland investment portfolios.Because the mainland firms need to buy the same value in Hong Kong,the mainland citizens to buy shares through the curve increases inland into stocks funds. The line has not decided down,so it is difficult to estimate the actual effect,but that will make international enterprise had another reason to Hongkong listing,because it will be a curve obtained from mainland capital opportunity. From another perspective,Hongkong is more to eat to the mainland to build “international board” of the “first eat soup”. Therefore,the author pays close attention to more is,will be the highlight of the new Hong Kong stocks,using ETF the opportunity to attract more international enterprises listed in Hongkong,can even set up a “international business” Hong Kong ETF (and related index),to keep track of all listed in Hongkong’s international business,and in the mainland stock exchange. As a result,is conducive to further strengthen Hongkong as an international business in the mainland “curve” financing “bridgehead” status.
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March 19th, 2012
Recently our country released of iron ore index. Optimistic comments that,this is my country as the world’s biggest steel producer to iron ore pricing is important one pace; pessimistic personage points out,iron ore trade main suppliers will not ignore our index,because they were holding iron ore resources,can ignore our index,continue to waving their arbitrary pricing stick. The author feels that these formulations have some truth,but related discussions have deviated from the Finance on what is the pricing mode of thought trajectory.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyIn the annual price negotiation system,iron ore mine owners tend to be the most competitive steel and reach a long-term agreement price; for the mine owners,the most competitive steel is a safe long-term customers,and is able to accept higher prices to customers. Iron ore price of a long association with the industry survival of the fittest factor,to accept the price of steel thinks this is a can make other potential competitors in the industry outside the shielding is a price,to ensure his level of profitability of the price. So,we see a long association price is generally the first to accept the highest labor productivity of steel.A long association mechanism failed to foresee the Chinese steel mills in China booming,the exuberant demand drive below,Chinese steel output grows substantially,resulting in iron ore trade pattern has changed. In the original framework,if the Chinese market is a resource price open market,may not appear a large number of low efficiency of steel,the actual situation is our steel plant in the local government support,around the bank’s help,rely on a strong domestic market rapid development. Now the iron ore market chaos is actually the old mechanisms disintegrate,new mechanism has not been established before the transition period.In fact,the iron ore trade and now real estate,is a continuous time finance under the framework of the pricing mechanism. The land and housing transactions are not always happen,but jumping. Iron ore pricing is once a year,and unlike stocks and gold in exchange trading in a row to get a quote. How to jump in,discontinuous trading on its pricing mechanism,it is a very difficult matter. Countries have no ready solutions.So,now we broke the iron ore original discontinuous framework,to use price index method in the continuous time financial framework to obtain pricing power,must solve good let iron ore index differentiable,derivative,the premise condition such as hedge. If we exchange,iron ore index trading can hedge,and the hedge is not dependent on the three mines to provide real selling,we move to obtain pricing is a key step.Many people think that we as the biggest customer,should obtain the iron ore pricing power,the author wants to remind them of the pricing power of supply and demand,but there is no relationship between how much. From the financial perspective to understand the transaction,pricing power is the essence and core of not big customers and owners struggle between,but through the market transaction system to resolve the particular object risk convenience. So,it’s not a big deal,but a complete defuse the risks of trading system. If we can for investors,manufacturers,owners and other traders to provide such convenience,pricing is our,this process should include a series of system design and financial innovation. To this,the author suggest the following:To be fully aware of the original price of a long association has its rationality,which is composed of the most efficient steel to entire industry pricing,which in the invisible the inefficient producers out. We need to take the reasonable factors of absorption to the trading system. We not only need to compile a history data based on trade statistical index,but also to establish an index trading system. This system should include but not limited to,iron ore indexFutures,and even contains iron ore and other varieties of real ETF. Among them,iron ore ETF transaction may consider the introduction of a new mechanism,it is the choice of the current market the highest efficiency of the producers of the iron ore smelting rate,conversion of a standard,allow the use of standardized steel replaced iron ore to fund managers in real application. The advantage of this is,encourage everybody to improve labor productivity,improve production technology,improve energy efficiency,reduce ore loss rate,thus by the market to give excellent enterprise a privilege — can be used to purchase real product share of ETF,and then can throw of profit or the redemption of iron ore.In addition,we also can give the real ETF provides a downstream of the option,the coking coal into ETF physical application scope,but the conversion rate to the industry the highest energy efficiency of enterprises as the benchmark,so open up more channels,to further expand the ETF transaction participants.Preparation of a iron ore index does not ensure that we immediately obtain pricing power,if not enough short of capacity,but not conducive to the subject matter to form reasonable price. In order to make this short mechanism gets to play,can consider to introduce real ETF transaction. If allowed to finished products and other raw materials for ETF subscription and redemption,we obtained a unique mechanism for short,can use other objects through ETF short iron ore,so it makes up for the defects in the market. Steel and coal participated in the iron ore ETF transactions,can make us get rid of the three mines dependence,independently of iron ore index in exchange of hedge. And the downstream of the incentive mechanism,is the market cannot provide.The author also suggests,in the future for the ETF to develop a series of card products,convenient in iron and steel industry participants through the creation of warrants to lock in risk,for the parties to provide comprehensive risk mitigation tools,rather than just founded the record trade data index.
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March 19th, 2012
In the global monetary system under the background of the turbulent,decision-making layer tends to accelerate the internationalization of rmb. The world is in order to enhance its international purchasing power,lower due to Europe and the United States dominated by traditional world monetary system continued depreciation risk. But if you want to solve its international purchasing power problem,needs to solve above all “the domestic purchasing power of rmb”.RMB internationalization road takes two steps,although the internationalization of currency must be free floating,convertible currency,but to let the yuan at a draught become freely convertible currency is difficult,the completion of this step requires at least ten years. Now to take the first step,i.e.,encourage more businesses and countries using the currency for cross-border trade settlement,to allow the renminbi to go into “currency of settlement”. In the continuous RMB appreciation and appreciation is expected to remain strong background,RMB settlement of cross-border trade of the actual demand is very big,and soon formed offshore RMB “reservoir”,become more and more countries (regions) of investors “reserve” selection.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyCurrency is the factor of production,and ultimately to and other factors of production can be combined to form productivity,but the foreign currency stock in a large part of the impossible “and other factors of production of” combining function. That is to say,they can’t realize the value. No previous design return channel,is because the yuan is stranded outside of the scale is very small,and now more and more foreign currency,to allow the renminbi to compliance measures must improve reflux.Perfect exit RMB bidirectional flow channel is very important for the system design,it can not only solve the RMB to the world after a back problem,can solve the circulation of RMB and foreign exchange reserve the authenticity problem,which is the premise of policy research. In this case,the internationalization of RMB must consider the assets of RMB internationalization. In the overseas market has grown up under the background of RMB backflow,eliminate is not realistic,the offshore RMB fund long-term blockade in domestic assets market is not realistic.Should say,outside of nearly 1 trillion yuan deposits can only be obtained in less than one percent of the annual income of a year,only by small QFII return the territory of 20000000000 Yuan is not very reasonable. Unreasonable does not equal,so the hot money will be more and more,from the supervision of the underground channel of capital will be more and more popular. As long as there are FDI,QFII,QFII,offshore RMB capital investments in the mainland capital market is inevitable.The future we will see more Chinese enterprises to go out,see more international trade using the RMB clearing,also will see,more foreign currency through legal channels reflux mainland,the RMB can not only investment entity economy,also be able to invest in capital market. The internationalization of RMB is the premise to hold the renminbi appreciation of people can obtain the opportunity,this not only needs the renminbi to bidirectional flow,free flow,but also must include the assets of RMB internationalization.
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March 19th, 2012
Occupation of the Wall Street! Occupation of boston! Occupation of washington!……At first,people thought that it was just the United States youth collective creation of a crusade against the financial sector of the subject behavior art,unexpectedly,the protest but now in national spark set the prairie ablaze,grows in intensity,even how to end,who can not give an exact answer. Of course,one thing is certain,with its roots in financial industry. As in recent years by the black president admits: “the American people protest movement expressed on the financial system of discontent.”Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe financial oligarchs to Wall Street do? Wall Street of the American financial industry how? The United States financial industry and the American economy how? The United States economy and global economy how? This a series of problem is very complex,academic experts and scholars worthy of deep thinking and careful analysis,but a series of problems that is very simple,even a word can be simply and without exception,that is: the financial oligarchy kidnapped Wall Street,Wall Street kidnapped the American financial industry,the United States financial kidnapped American economy,American economy kidnapped the global economy. So,we seem to understand American citizens involved in the protest,even can look on as sympathy and support for their generosity.In fact,it is not possible to watch,because Wall Street of this butterfly is in the United States,in the world launched a hurricane,a financial industry over the reflection on the development of the hurricane. We can boldly predicted: the future for a long period of time,financial mania will gradually reduce fever,financial worship should also must be removed from the altar call down.To finance from the altar worship please down,must first make the industry focus back to its basic function.Traditional textbooks tell us that,for a surplus of funds,financial means to savings and investment; for the shortage of funds managers,financial means lending and financing; for the whole society,the financial means of resource allocation. Some unscrupulous financiers are the financial industry to build into a seize the social wealth monster,in their view,the financial function mainly in money. Under the banner of financial innovation,financial oligarchs step-by-step implementation of the entity economy rule. Some people say,Wall Street is the world’s financial supreme ruler,but also the world economy the Supreme ruler. They have a glib tongue,persuade industrialist packaging listed shareholders,creating a large number of rich mythology while drum for themselves; they see things in a blur of her own design is also not clear about the essence and the risk of innovative financial products,attracting a large number of social capital for its control. Once one’s criminal conspiracy was unmasked. His pocket,not,he appealed to the government for help,the government often out of “too big to fail” considerations,but spending huge sums to fill holes.Nevertheless,financiers will still take the taxpayer aid continued to squander. Even in the financial crisis situation,financiers income still dozens of times,hundreds of times of the ordinary person. Farewell to the excessive financial return,basis function,it must be only in this way can we save criticized the modern financial industry.To finance from the altar worship please come down,also must put economic focus from finance to industrial.Despite the antipathyObamaMany of the policy towards China,but the author thinks,he put forward the “export” “industrial save the nation” slogan,but really save the United States with a prescription,the problem is excessive consumption win support among the people,the United States financial worship ingrained,has been to rely on export import luxury real sustain notesWatsonLive,in the world trade pattern has been formed today,short time to bring people from rushing into the factory floor office building,is exceedingly difficult.In China,the financial worship is not deeply affect our daily life.Said the first city strategy,put forward to want to build financial center at. International Finance Centre,dare not mention,put construction of international financial center,such as what northeast Asia financial center and the like; international financial center dare not mention,put construction of regional financial center. Always thought that all financial center stained edges,can fall a basin full earthen bowl is full. Even ifIndustryPositioning,also must do more capital intensive industry,it is said that the development of labor-intensive enterprises,will be a joke as backward.Again obtain employment of children,who are now said to send children into the factory workers,will be surrounded by friends and relatives saliva drowns. Employment in financial enterprises,most preferably a foreign-funded financial enterprises. Finance is to try to enter the financial enterprise,even if no financial,nib the head,one on the trustee,also in financial enterprises! Why? The high salary,work one year than in the factory for ten or twenty years.And entrepreneur,was on a step,go through untold hardships suffered numerous hills and streams,said thousands and thousands of words,through numerous difficulties and dangers of the “forty million forty thousand spirits” abruptly ran out a development path of the merchant of Wenzhou,now the problem is heavy,the decline has it,jump off building is,those who have run away. Investigate its germ,can be summed up in eight words: in industrial,was beaten by the financial. From the production of sewing buttons to start,rely on labor concentrated model enterprise,Wenzhou people earn sufficient capital,later,Wenzhou gradually found stocks,real,fry coal even fried bean,is to make money fast and convenient factory. When the national monetary tightening,proudly interest in Wenzhou who did not receive the hand,turn the development of underground finance,when funding chain cannot be invigorated,crash is inevitable. To still the late-developing advantage in other areas,as the forerunner of the Wenzhou,is a very good teaching materials.Finance is the blood of the national economy and the lifeblood,but if good nutrition and lack of vitality,lead to high blood lipids,hypertension and hyperglycemia,the blood is not only beneficial for the body,it will be harmful to the body,serious when may endanger life,night is not alarmist. Because the United States and European financial blood out of the question,that led to the financial crisis,debt crisis,has also led to the occupation of the Wall Street protests broke out and spread. By other’s faults,wise men correct their own. Hope that the Chinese financial industry decision makers,regulators,practitioners and even Chinese businesswoman and ordinary people,can calm observation of China finance industry development present situation,a little less worship,more rational,make healthy financial industry escort the stable development of China’s economy.
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March 19th, 2012
QE1 scale including the Fed bought $300000000000 of treasury bonds,$1.25,$100000000000 of residential buildings by securities Fannie and Freddie bonds,led to the 2009 MarchU.S. stocksRise. In 2010 August suggesting launched QE2,and in 2010 November to 2011 May to buy 600000000000 dollar bills. Namely before and after infusion of $about one trillion,and OT2 (Operation Twist 2),is to buy 400000000000 dollar 6 years or more bonds to drive down long-term interest,sold for $400000000000 in 3 years or less short-term bonds,the decision triggered a September U.S. stocks and gold prices. Estimation of 30 year Treasury rate from 3.6 per cent to 2.6 per cent (i.e. 2008 event level).Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storySince 1960,the S & P 500 average P / E for 19.4 times,this year in September (in the past method to calculate the net profit) S & P 500 average P / E for 19 times,that is to do not calculate expensive or cheap level,such as a new calculating method for P / E dropped to 10.4 times.Gold has been as low as $1532,to return to the ascending rail support area. I the past half year has been called small left the gold,to the present level and epsilon absorb gold,because gold bull market is still negative interest rates,i.e. unfinished,recently the city or just a big adjustment.In September 6th 1920 dollars in gold to meet resistance,reason is the commodity price index in May this year to weak,”copper” doctor tells us,the global manufacturing industry in weakening. But the situation is still negative interest rates,thus to determine gold prices have peaked,but adjustment have been amazing,estimation of gold in the 1600 U.S. dollars will rebuild foundation. The P / E into the lower zoneToday,the Hang Seng Index P / E has entered the low zone (8-12),individuals believe HSI below 17800 points,16200 points more than the entry can be absorbed,but the future rise space limited. In the banking stocks as an example,in the face of the mainland and Hongkong property prices has entered a period of adjustment,the loan growth rate is extremely limited,bank interest income is still in decline,coupled with the sale of fund services,Valet trading stocks,foreign exchange income cannot grow considerably,so P / E although low,but also G (growth rate) very low,not particularly attractive.The inner housing stocks also face the same problem,as the mainland auto stocks,about half of this year has inflection point,high growth rate gradually into the past,home appliances to the countryside with old change new policy is about to expire,make home appliance sales growth could not be maintained,the market for low P / E has its reasonable place.The first half of the coal board performance is still good,but the second half of China’s GDP growth rate is slowing,with Europe and the United States economic turmoil,coal demand from thermal power,steel,80% cement and four major chemical industry,in the”Twelfth Five-Year Plan”Planning of the coal prospects may also enter low growth period. In other words today HSI low P / E precisely reflect the future of listed companies net profit enters low growth period.The Hang Seng Index bull two stage reduction should be more than 31.8% or even 50%,maybe 61.8% or 16144 points. A stock bull market a period from 2008 November 2009 August start,end,enter the long bull market two,the reason is economic transformation needs a long time to complete. China towards a middle-income areaThe “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”,the next five years the Chinese consumer market will be doubled,future wage has increased significantly,the future five years Chinese mainland inflation rate is not low,estimated to remain at about 5%. Over the past five years (2005 to 2010) Chinese mainland consumption accounted for by GDP 45% drops to 34%,because the export growth is too strong,the next five years the mainland consumption share of GDP want more than 50%.This year local government debt is estimated to reach 10700000000000 yuan,the last local government income 80% come from selling land,the central government hoped that mainland property prices in the next days cut from 10% to 15%. In the face of the future property prices downward,in the local government finance above the great pressure,the Chinese economy still needs a good time.In 1993 the Chinese government decided to reform the state-owned enterprises,to 2001 just a few years of state-owend enterprises to reduce the amount of 2 / 3,from 1200000 to 468000,staff accounted for the proportion of employment in city from 59% to 32%. Thereafter,large state-owned enterprises listed accept public supervision government investors,these enterprises become the major shareholder,also introduced foreign capital enterprises to do second shareholders,the introduction of foreign business. These public-private enterprise whether can defeat foreign listed private enterprises?China is entering the “medium income” (i.e.,per capita income of US $2500 to US $5000),whether through economic transition into the high income area (i.e.,per capita income of US $15000 to $30000)? Around the world many countries,when the economy into the middle-income areas,GDP growth rate will decline,namely the middle income trap. According to the World Bank figures: Philippines since 1960 until now,GDP did not stop growing,such as the 2010 GDP still rises 7.1%. Why still so poor Filipinos generally? The Philippines government corruption,makeLawNot just implementation,so that the concentration of wealth in the hands of those decimals,earn money because of distrust of government it will be transferred overseas…… Philippines is the Chinese government think. To the economic cycle problemMost investors and investment strategy decision makers rarely from point of view of the economic cycle to ponder the question,generally using linear projection method. For example,the last two years the enterprise net profit to rise by 25% a year,then look into this year,next year net profit every year or 25%. The analysis of economic cycle having a series of hypothesis and inference must be,once the reality have access to speed as correct,not ordinary people can do.Read garden-vareity theory will know that the business cycle is 5 years one small change,10 years a big change,this is after the Second World War the normal business cycle. Japan in 1990 balance sheet recession,only the restructuring the balance sheet,another boom can come again,and not by the government to further increase the debt,debt to raise debt late early problems,individual,company,country is so so.The United States launched quantitative easing can stop 1930 time economic depression (i.e.,not a double-dip recession),but not escape the Japanese recession,and world economy has entered a rebalancing period. Japan GDP by 1990 global proportion accounted for the current 12% to 6%. The next 20 years in Europe,the GDP will be in 2007 accounted for 25% of global GDP to account for only 12% of the new industrial countries,the proportion of multiplication,the change is not the United States Federal Reserve launched what OT2 can change.
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March 19th, 2012
In a “bottom has come” market comments sound,A stock market challenge the bottom limit. Since this year,as of September 30th,the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped 15.98%,the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 17.48%,represented in the small-cap stocks securities 500 index decreases high up to 21.87%. People can’ts help wanting to ask,called days of the bottom of the market,in where. Since this year,the external market volatility,the domestic capital surface tension,economic recovery is not yet clear,involve the A shares market trend,many blue-chip stock appeared sharply diving. From the technical analysis,the bottom of the stock market seems to have appeared. Southern fund strategy report,although the stock market difficult to measure accurately the bottom,but according to the A market in 2005 November (capital supply and demand extreme deterioration) and 2008 October (economic extreme deterioration) formed the two big bottom standards,has been gradually entering the bottom area.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyBut from the policy perspective,the stock market seems to have so a distance from bottom. The so-called policy,does not refer to the macroscopical adjusting control affect funding the monetary policy,but the effort to maintain the healthy development of the stock market,the protection of small investors institutional policy. Only as far as possible to protect the interests of investors,to achieve information equity sharing,A stock market can say is the success of the bottom,rebound sometimes. Stock market starving people fill the land. Government rescues the city,cannot take the headache cure head foot pain medicine foot attitude to deal with,or have social security funds into the suspended IPO can save time,once the system not to follow,the slack out of funds will still disappear into a black hole.A shares at the bottom of the market build,the first and most should do is to establish mandatory dividend system. In the past many years,the stock market definition is distorted into the financing platform,without even ignore its investment function. Shareholders earn mostly rely on the stock price traded,rather than mature markets abroad commonly hold a blue-chip rely on regular dividend income. A stock market “.” we should be bound by the system,take due returns investors,in order to ensure that investors the most basic income. From long-term look,encourage investors to hold long-term blue-chip waiting for dividends,also contribute to the stability of the market.Secondly,the insider information,fabricating false profits and other bad behavior means to more severe punishment,not only from the regulatory system on the curb,but also increase the civil litigation system.Wong Kwong YuInsider trading case later,investors have to think its loss andWong Kwong YuThe insider trading causality exists,therefore proceedings. Cases the subject alone more than 100 yuan,but this is the first case of compensation for insider trading. Experts think,where in 2007 April to 2008 May hold too Zhongguancun stock and loss of investors,can Wong Kwong Yu’s insider trading civil compensation lawsuit,involving the number of shareholders may be reached more than 10 people.Similar to the civil lawsuit if some more,medium and small investors to the guarantee on the system can more effectively some. In Europe and the United States and other mature markets,there is a kind of burden of proof system design,when listed companies,CPA firms and investment banks because there may be a fault to investors losses,investors need not adduce evidence that appear on the market the company is at fault,but the listed companies,the defendant to adduce evidence,that they are not at fault,i.e. the defendant from card. If this system can be introduced into our country,will protect many disadvantaged minority investors.From the theory of the bottom of the stock market,but relatively,phasic bottom or bottom,or long-term,but is on the market an description and judgment. Only one thing is sure,no perfect system to ensure the market,will be a “bottomless pit”,any bottom may be breakdown,any point may be below.
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March 19th, 2012
Any discipline research objects are very specific. Compared with natural science,the complexity of economics lies in its research object has a broader system and non system variables. This also makes the economics prize than other Nobel prizes and more controversial.This year’s Nobel economics prize was awarded to Sargent and sims. Award-winning reasons is “on macroeconomics in the empirical research on the causality between”. Among them,Sargent’s research on (as the main economic policy and () as object) G D P,inflation,employment and investment different macroeconomic of causal relationship between variables. The Sims is created based on a vector autoregressive method,to analysis the economic policy to be temporary changes and other factors,and the use of this method to the study of such asCentral bankInterest rate effect on the economy. The conclusion is,usually it takes one to two years to a decline in the rate of inflation,and economic growth in the short term to decline gradually,need a few years to return to normal development.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyMight as well the conclusion to Chinese economy to do a simple compliance testing. Since the reform and open policy focus on the city,Chinese economy begins from 1985 to march into the high inflation. However,despite the central bank continuouslyIncrease interestThe two execution,even extreme savings interest rate hedging subsidy policy,but the CPI except for two special year somewhat fall after a rise,until in 1996 at an average of 11.25% high level.If the period of the Chinese economy has its particularity,Nobel Prize in economics and is only concerned in the developed economies of the problem,then,then have a look the situation in japan. As everyone knows,because suffer the effect of bubble economy,Japanese economy since the beginning of 1992 in 10 years after the zero growth,growth is also quite weak. During this period,the Bank of Japan to keep its zero interest rate policy. So the “zero interest rate,zero growth” macroscopical economy by Japan and the United States scholars refer to as a “liquidity trap”. Obviously,the Japanese situation also does not support the conclusion.To a large extent,the Bank of Japan’s zero interest rate policy has a long-term failure,is the fundamental reason for Japan’s banking system in the bubble period accumulated a large number of non-performing loans,have to gradually be digested,so that by 2003 Japan farewell loans negative growth pattern.Up to now,other developed economies appeared similar to Japan’s problem,strictly speaking is the problem more serious than in japan. Looking back,the Fed’s zero interest rates and quantitative easing could not really save economic meltdown,looking to the future,even if the fed to the zero interest rate policy to maintain 10 years,influenced by debt problems,the United States economy is also very difficult to completely out of the depression.A study of the conclusion cannot be past proved by practice,at the same time “can not solve the current confusion”,its theory can still win the grand prize,the Nobel economics prize committee once the gentlemen would not be impressed.The stock market bottom whereZhao JingIn a “bottom has come” market comments sound,A stock market challenge the bottom limit. Since this year,as of September 30th,the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped 15.98%,the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 17.48%,represented in the small-cap stocks securities 500 index decreases high up to 21.87%. People can’ts help wanting to ask,called days of the bottom of the market,in where. Since this year,the external market volatility,the domestic capital surface tension,economic recovery is not yet clear,involve the A shares market trend,many blue-chip stock appeared sharply diving. From the technical analysis,the bottom of the stock market seems to have appeared. Southern fund strategy report,although the stock market difficult to measure accurately the bottom,but according to the A market in 2005 November (capital supply and demand extreme deterioration) and 2008 October (economic extreme deterioration) formed the two big bottom standards,has been gradually entering the bottom area.But from the policy perspective,the stock market seems to have so a distance from bottom. The so-called policy,does not refer to the macroscopical adjusting control affect funding the monetary policy,but the effort to maintain the healthy development of the stock market,the protection of small investors institutional policy. Only as far as possible to protect the interests of investors,to achieve information equity sharing,A stock market can say is the success of the bottom,rebound sometimes. Stock market starving people fill the land. Government rescues the city,cannot take the headache cure head foot pain medicine foot attitude to deal with,or have social security funds into the suspended IPO can save time,once the system not to follow,the slack out of funds will still disappear into a black hole.A shares at the bottom of the market build,the first and most should do is to establish mandatory dividend system. In the past many years,the stock market definition is distorted into the financing platform,without even ignore its investment function. Shareholders earn mostly rely on the stock price traded,rather than mature markets abroad commonly hold a blue-chip rely on regular dividend income. A stock market “.” we should be bound by the system,take due returns investors,in order to ensure that investors the most basic income. From long-term look,encourage investors to hold long-term blue-chip waiting for dividends,also contribute to the stability of the market.Secondly,the insider information,fabricating false profits and other bad behavior means to more severe punishment,not only from the regulatory system on the curb,but also increase the civil litigation system.Wong Kwong YuInsider trading case later,investors have to think its loss and Wong Kwong Yu’s insider trading causality exists,therefore proceedings. Cases the subject alone more than 100 yuan,but this is the first case of compensation for insider trading. Experts think,where in 2007 April to 2008 May hold too Zhongguancun stock and loss of investors,can Wong Kwong Yu’s insider trading civil compensation lawsuit,involving the number of shareholders may be reached more than 10 people.Similar to the civil lawsuit if some more,medium and small investors to the guarantee on the system can more effectively some. In Europe and the United States and other mature markets,there is a kind of burden of proof system design,when listed companies,CPA firms and investment banks because there may be a fault to investors losses,investors need not adduce evidence that appear on the market the company is at fault,but the listed companies,the defendant to adduce evidence,that they are not at fault,i.e. the defendant from card. If this system can be introduced into our country,will protect many disadvantaged minority investors.From the theory of the bottom of the stock market,but relatively,phasic bottom or bottom,or long-term,but is on the market an description and judgment. Only one thing is sure,no perfect system to ensure the market,will be a “bottomless pit”,any bottom may be breakdown,any point may be below.(this column manuscripts only reflect the personal views of the author,does not represent this position)
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March 19th, 2012
In October 10th,the United States of America Santa Clara California County PublicThe Ministry of healthDoor published death certificate shows,pancreatic neoplasm metastasis caused by respiratory arrest is Apple Inc. founder SteveJobsThe immediate cause of death.Jobs had to go,but he lives in the hearts of all men. He was more than just a entrepreneur,mourners in pious heart,he is a set of beliefs,life,innovation,marketing in one of the legendary. The legend of Jobs,not only is the apple of legend,is the symbol of spiritual power. It is an apple to let Jobs have a position today,be inferior to saying is Jobs single-handedly created the apple.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyInitially,people just indulge in elaborating on Jobs business make the dead come back to life,apple,Apple marketing chain,Jobs arrived at the end point in life,people began to reflect on,why is Jobs? What makes Jobs?Jobs and Apple’s success,is the western market success. No loose environment,there can be no Jobs personal independence of conduct space; no American capitalism,there can be no apple blossoms in radiant splendor. We cannot forget Jobs behind Apple’s powerful team,their low inventory,will Jobs aesthetics and technology set in one powerful team,efficient logistics chain,global marketing network,is the technical basis of apple. More surprisingly,supporting Jobs inside a powerful spiritual force comes from the East,people always hope to pick out the wisdom of the sages,perfectly integrated in the modern world,in China there are very few entrepreneurs,philosopher,two,while Jobs did.Jobs has faith,Zen Buddhism not only to let Jobs have the spiritual support,more let Jobs have the simple life and aesthetic taste,all Apple products design reflects the simplicity of beauty. Designed by apple in its Japanese dry landscape style concise artistic conception,captured the heart of millions of users. He neither blindly vulgar or common-place point of view.,do not blindly follow your heart,but with a strong spirit of the pioneering the new road.Under the pen of Wang Xiaobao Jobs is the only personal independence of conduct “pig”,Stanford University in the speech,he warned us,”your time is limited,so don’t waste it living someone else’s life. Don’t be trapped by dogma,that means you and intuition. Don’t let the noise of other’s opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important,have the courage to follow your heart and intuition they somehow already know what you truly want to do it,all the other things are secondary”.When Jobs found the means to change the world,when he find the goal of life,never save passion. Each section of Apple products,for every choice,he is proud to recommend to the world,because Jobs believed that apple IT can change the world. Not able to convince myself,how to convince others? All the people who had been Jobs’s passion of the infection,because before that,Jobs has to find the source of passion.Experience of death with Jobs lifetime. In his speech,Jobs once said,”when I was 17,I read a saying:” if you live each day as if it was your last day to live,then one day you’ll find out you are right. “This words impressed me deeply. Since then,for the past 33 years,I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: “If today were the last day of my life,would I want to do? “When the answer for many times has been” no “when,I know I need to change something”.Take each day as their last day on the job,life,screening,Jobs achievement of self. Old inspirational approach,only the powerful spirit can support.Even the motto of Jobs are all the way east “StayHungry,StayFoolish” literal translation is “stay hungry,stay foolish”,but the Chinese EntrepreneursTian SuningThis sentence translated into Chinese for having heard it many times in the “hungry for knowledge,if I do”. The motto is in line with the teachings of Confucianism Taoism,also accord with the kernel. An American entrepreneur could so accurately grasp the oriental culture kernel,runs through all his actions,it let people feel ashamed.”StayHungry,StayFoolish” is not Jobs’s first,in the late 70′s before the popularization of computer,a book entitled “WholeEarthCatalog” said of a great teacher of the magazine,the magazine has completed his mission when 70 time metaphase,the last phase of the back cover is a photograph of an early morning country road,the photo is the sentence,is the farewell words. This followed Jobs’s life,and through the Jobs inheritance,by the next generation of entrepreneurs and scholars inherit.Jobs is unable to imitate,people cannot make another Jobs; Jobs is able to imitate,to live life as of the end of the spirit,to retrieve all the world’s culture,and with the greatest courage in every day adhere to,you will be able to become Jobs,there will always be a belongs to own apple.
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March 19th, 2012
In 16 months,oil prices are finally dropped. In October 8th the stateDevelopment and Reform CommissionPosting said,international oil price drops extent already meet the refined oil retail price conditions,gasoline and diesel are reduced by 300 yuan / ton,roughly every litres respectively down 0.22 yuan,0.26 yuan.However,this did not expect oil prices down to harvest the joy and applause. SinaMicro-blogIn a survey,nearly nine think into the netizen “should lower the multi point” or “too late,as early as the drop”,only about 7% of the price expressed “surprise”. Contemplation of reality,in the price cut before,part of Guangzhou gas station have preferential prices,the most preferential 0.39 yuan / litre,far more than the reduction. The price cut and failed to gain sufficient public opinion,investigate its prime,one is the domestic refined oil prices are often higher than the price in the international market; the two is the domestic oil price adjustment mechanism of a serious lack of transparency.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyIn October 7th,a Beijing media reports,the international oil price in the continuous drop from the October 5th after the sudden rise,as of October 6th,according to 22 working days and 4% fluctuations of international oil prices,monitoring mechanism monitoring the change of only 1% negative,means that the short-term domestic gasoline and diesel price adjustment of hopelessness. But the past two days,national hair changes appoint announced that international oil price drops “recently reached 4% of the price of boundary conditions”. Hatchback control,is tantamount to a “data oolong”. Obviously,the oil price adjustment based on transparent condition,hazy.The current refined oil pricing mechanism to the 22 working days and 4% amplitude fluctuations for reference,have been public insight into the “99″. For example,when rising in price low base,in the international oil price is overall go higher background to rise 4%; while the downwardly when cardinal number is high,difficult in 22 working days in average fell 4%. Moreover,the oil price must be the currency exchange rate effect. A lot of problem,already let the current refined oil pricing mechanism has lost credibility.In addition,the national development and Reform Commission the relevant responsible person in response to public opinion “up fast or slow”,”rising more or less” when indicated,on domestic oil prices need to rise,want to consider on the downstream industry influence and inflationary pressures,the state not only properly control the price,but also often delayed price time. That is to say,in a refined oil price operation,in addition to the current pricing mechanism,factors considered and a dozen. Oil price adjustment mechanism of the opaque,together with a variety of non market factors with which,let what time is adjustable,adjustable number,more opaque.From the part of Guangzhou gas station before the price than the price reduction,the so-called lower gas prices only symbolic value. Oil prices while drop,but drop as have a blurred vision. If the oil price adjustment to obtain public opinion and market support,reform the current pricing mechanism be imperative,but also need to have the timetable and roadmap.
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March 19th, 2012
Yang TaoRecently,the Shaanxi Tongchuan of more than 200 households owners reflect: they buy commercial housing before 2007,in the year to handle the house property certificate formalities,accidentally discovered,they buy the house is actually affordable housing! Arguably,affordable housing prices,the owners should be happy. They however how glad also to do not rise,for they could buy a house pay money is commodity house price,and they also do not accord with the purchase of affordable housing conditions.Henan and the Luoyang police was creatively “sex slaves” case as state secrets,in Tongchuan,commercial housing into affordable housing events,has also become a “secret”,not only developers secretive,even the Tongchuan city housing and Urban Construction Management Bureau Hui full also told reporters that “this you don’t ask for it”. The don’t ask,behind,what super “confidential”? And let me help them at “the painted”.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyTo protect the people’s livelihood,every year the government issued the indemnificatory housing construction tasks,this gives local government finance to bring no small pressure,of course,more trouble and unhappiness. Sell to push up prices,some local government drive,because,this not only can increase revenue,but also from the sales of commercial property can receive various taxes and fees,local government earn basin full earthen bowl is full. But the construction of affordable housing,not only cannot get to sell to the money,but also money up,it may be said is “peibenzhuanyaohe” business,local government is not motivated. However,if the task and can not complete,affordable housing construction can not. Fortunately “on have policy,there is countermeasure”,some places make financing housing units as the safeguard real,some places are trying to low rent housing “common property” or direct selling low rent housing way to alleviate the financial pressure,low rent housing began to appear at different levels of the “privatization”.But all the way to Tongchuan so bold and wise. Reportedly,Tongchuan local government is in agreement with the developers will be affordable housing as a commodity housing sale. So,the government not only need not invest money to build affordable housing,relevant taxes a child is less; on the other hand,sold the house property right is still affordable housing,report to still build affordable housing,so the local government also completed the construction tasks of ranking make known to lower levels,this is not too good?Of course,this is afraid is also more than the official achievements reflect so simple. Affordable housing land grants,this means developers to build housing cost is very low,so low cost houses to the market as a commercial housing sold,the developers will earn basin full full earthen bowl is full,and the operation is said to be the government clearly below the allowed. Then,government officials to allow developers to do so,it exists after all what Maoni? The relevant departments should check.Tongchuan problems,not only should be investigated for affordable housing why would become more commercial housing,should be prosecuted for local governments and officials why Manshangqixia,with civilian dispute benefit,even from the act in collusion with corrupt problem,from the system to prevent their play flash game,thus creating a “public service government”,in order to protect the local people can really able to get the government to provide public services.
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March 19th, 2012
CountryDevelopment and Reform CommissionAnnounce,9 days of zero hour,lowered the maximum retail prices of refined oil,gasoline and diesel prices per ton,were down 300 yuan per liter,approximately down 0.22 yuan,0.26 yuan respectively. (in October 9th,”Guangzhou daily”)Today such a oil abduction of the era,everyone’s life will be the trend of oil price effects. Crude oil prices change every will cause public opinion throbbing,prime cause is its “fall out of line”. According to the mechanism of linkage of the oil price rise and fall,there will be,but over the years the public to feel the prices of refined oil,but there are just do not fall up,down,down,up the dark up before or after swelling phenomenon. The national development and Reform Commission the relevant responsible person said,the domestic oil price does not exist “up fast or slow”,but the price adjustment is 16 months since the first down,and before this has been rising for 4 times. Does 16 months since,international oil prices have been high? The truth was not so.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe national development and Reform Commission the relevant responsible person said,”consumers think up fast or slow”,mainly due to the oil price formation mechanism and price adjustment operation approach is more complex; and because the valuation cycle for 22 days moving average price,objectively also leads to domestic and foreign price changes were not synchronous. This shows that the current price adjustment mechanism unreasonable factors exist.With oil prices rose overall strong power,is a practical point of view,even up to 22 working days is normal,declined in 22 working days are very difficult to. Face this one reality,it is necessary to “shorten the cycle,accelerate the frequency of price adjustment price adjustment”.On the basis of energy products,its price should be more in line with “the theory of moral sentiments”. The price should be cautious,the price should be quickly from urgently. Set out from this one principle,price mechanism to adjust the direction should be: keep the price 22 working days standards unchanged,greatly reduce the price required working day. Whether the international market for 11 consecutive working days prices,the domestic refined oil price can be lowered then? Of course,the ultimate criteria can still debatable,but reduce the downregulation of the standard limit,but should be imperative.A reasonable market,oil prices should not be so difficult,oil prices should not be so big news. Considering the market facts,it is necessary to break the finished product oil price change a standard,appropriate to relax the conditions of lower oil prices. Only in this way,oil prices would not be so be not easily won. (Mao Jianguo)
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March 19th, 2012
Mao Yuxi,members of the mediaThe United States of America local time 6 days later,the United States Senate said,because both parties to serious differences,decided to postpone to RMB exchange rate exchange rate reform act of 2011 “supervision” vote,voted to be delayed to October 11th. In the analysis looks,bill is likely in the Senate rejected. But thorough research over the years between the two game of RMB exchange rate,we can discover,put pressure on RMB appreciation this “currency” brand,has been the United States transfer of contradictions,financial crisis,avoid responsibility,harm others to benefit oneself “political weapon”.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyIn recent years,the United States has been a “level of concern” RMB exchange rate,continuously through various channels to put pressure on China,even at the risk of trade war threat. Worthy of attention is,the United States put pressure on RMB appreciation way,begin from last year gradually into the pressure of RMB “really” new level,how many means between the two game of RMB exchange rate from “slobber war” upgrade “real war”.In 1988 the United States “the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act”,the United StatesMinistry of FinanceEvery six months will be against the main trading partners are suspected of “currency manipulator to Congress that”. When reports came on,the Sino-US exchange rate will be the United States of America media hype topic,intangible form on China pressure potential. InObamaDuring the administration of the United States,has rejected 4 to list China as a “currency manipulator”,this shows that the RMB exchange rate is not the reason of the Sino-US trade imbalance,but also shows the United States has been “keep on carving” start “RMB exchange rate war”.Strong with parliamentary procedure,it is becoming the United States to suppress the renminbi “new action”. In September,the United States Senate majority leader Reed said,will promote the exchange rate for China “legislative work”. Today,the Senate will vote on “currency supervision reform bill”,is to suppress the renminbi “legislation” of the latest achievements,the main trading partner once considered undervalued exchange rate,the United States to impose punitive tariffs. The outside thinks generally,the bill aimed at China,aims to make RMB appreciation.All the signs indicate that the exchange rate between China and the United States,the game,because the United States has “legislation,political” and further open and sharpening. Similar to the “suspense,step by step” strategy of the United States of America pressure,is becoming an important means in Chinese press. Look from historical experience,once the United States economy mired in recession,the United States government may take the depreciation of the dollar,entrapment of other currency appreciation “weak dollar policy” crisis. Go up century 80 time,the United States forced appreciation of the yen,once let the Japanese economic recession in 20 years.Obviously,for many years “step by step” the appreciation of the renminbi,is not only the United States politicians “speculation themes”,or the United States to suppress yuan,debt reduction,maintaining the dollar currency had important strategic means. For the United States,so “multi-pronged” hype,pressure,forcing the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi,it may be said is “beneficial”,this is the United States of America’s “smart” in the United States,but also the “sinister”. We must make it clear that the United States of America potential strategic intent.
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March 19th, 2012
Wenzhou private lending is said to involve 89% families,individuals and 59% companies,loan dimensions amounts to 44000000000 yuan,annual interest rate already amounted to 180%. “National loan” to describe the Wenzhou private lending is no exaggeration. However,the problem lies not merely the existence of Wenzhou,other parts of the country,such as Jiangsu,Fujian,Henan,Inner Mongolia and other provinces,borrowing and its derivative crisis is getting worse.Folk credit has since ancient times,but objectively speaking,also the achievement of Wenzhou private economy important “hero”. But is now in the Wenzhou “national lending” crazy,a background must be mentioned: the current economic environment. High inflation expectations of the tight money,make a lot of medium and small enterprises from bank to loan the funds,have to through borrowing to maintain the normal operation of enterprises; and the entity economy investment less opportunities,industrial profit rate is not high,but also makes the folk has a lot of money to lend,both the market supply,folk debit and credit to crazy hard.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe German philosopher Hagel said,whatever is,is reasonable. The national debt in Wenzhou and other places of flourishing,as mentioned above,have its reasonable one side,it at least shows residents innovation of financial awareness has been enhanced and improved,but also on the current China’s financial system is not perfect as a beneficial complement. But it’s too far,too,beyond a certain limit,can turn into a bad thing. Borrowing is. National lending obviously as all stocks,more than the normal financial circumstances of small and medium enterprises to financing needs,although from each make the lending behavior of individual,which is a kind of income maximization of the rational decision making,but the economic overall situation,is to some extent in “crazy”.Specifically,the national debt such as the lack of effective regulation and supervision,leads to two aspects: one is borrowing funds fracture damage may occur at all risks. Borrowing is expected that interest rates would continue to go higher as the premise,once the economic situation is not good,interest rates decline,extremely easy to present the risk of private lending. From the point of reality,borrowing funds do not exclude a portion for real or into commodities and mine. If the economic environment changes,prices,commodity prices,this part of civil usury is likely to occur in crisis. In addition,such borrowing behavior lack of formal contract,often with IOU agreement,verbal agreement,this also makes the loan risk is big. At present,Wenzhou,the proprietor of an enterprise “run away” the phenomenon is the beginning of the crisis. While many people sell their homes or mortgaged to the bank to lend large area,once the crisis spread,hit will be the first to be their.Two is hitting the real economy. On one hand,lending rates continue to improve,increase the cost of corporate finance,small and medium enterprises are weak in strength,the high cost of financing will only increase business pressure,when the enterprise that business earns no interest,will accelerate the capital from the entity economy withdrawing speed; on the other hand,”favor” borrowing will the part had no problem in enterprise management,security dilemma,the fund problem and the closure of the phenomenon. These are evident in Wenzhou,the “run away” of the Wenzhou private enterprises,some is because of this reason; in addition,deposit move also led to the bank loan the money to those businesses in need of cash,affect the production and operation.Visible,folk is leasehold behavior management. But to be clear,management is not equal to down at one stroke. So,how to manage this kind of national loan phenomenon?First of all,accelerate the folk debit and credit in legislation and system construction. In formal financial can not try to do everything all by oneself condition,private lending its own existence space and rationality,therefore,need to improve the management system,legislation that specification,and resolutely crack down on illegal and criminal activity.Secondly,to actively promote the marketization of interest rate,change the formal finance and private financial imbalances present situation. Outside the system of financing cost high,system of enterprises enjoy the benchmark interest rate is low the cost of financing,the financing on the track system is the cause of private lending system,in order to change this situation,we must accelerate the reform of interest rate marketization.In third,the company to continue to carry out structural tax cuts,tax cuts key direction or miniature enterprise,especially to meet the state’s industrial structure,can absorb a wide range of employment,promoting the progress of science and technology of miniature enterprise,to support their development,so as to create a favorable external environment,reduce the enterprise on folk debit and credit demand.Finally,widen the dweller financing channels. Current,want to accelerate the development of capital market,the stock market to become the social surplus funds reservoir. This requires us to find the stock market value,and not like the stock becomes common people sadly. (the writer Deng Yuwen,Department of the Central Party School “study times” news deputy editor)
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March 19th, 2012
In October 7th,Heilongjiang farmer Liu Guifu respondents exposing,year income about 200000,government give tens of thousands of,caused the people questioned. After investigation by the reporter,he is a farm worker,contract land is more,high income is the case,the government “free” tens of thousands “of exaggeration. (October 9th xinhuanet.com)In the current public opinion field,such as irrational things,always lead to collective onlookers. “The farmer turned into about 200000 year”,is very eye effect,in farmer income is scanty,the heavy burden of the situation,it seems to be a myth. So,tile and doubt,come in a throng. Although “more than 20 farmer income” legend,afterwards has been proven true. That “the case is entirely cleared.” not only did not eliminate the doubts,but by the new round of public opinion. Why not put off the public’s? In the final analysis,in addition to the “year 200000″ real doubt,people more afraid or selective report suspicious.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyBased on the class of the real situation,it is not difficult to know that: “make 200000″ even if true,only isolated cases,not typical. Although “3 farming” policy of the system of compensation,improve farmer life circumstances,but “really poor rural areas,farmers really hard” is still a social norm. In this context,face the farmer’s multiple deprivation,can repair system care deficit. Otherwise,”burning” the narration instead of the people’s livelihood dilemma description,”the people live and work in peace” voice annihilation the bleak reality,the dark corners must be forgotten,policy supply will lose “reference system”.Media reports of “typical poverty in atypical to become rich”,but no ground for blame. But the problem is,propaganda discourse “inaccurate” pattern,always making the peace and tranquility under heaven. Don’t care about people’s livelihood difficulties,not only may mislead the decision,will let the public sincerely. In the unidirectional show,everywhere is full of images.Such a situation,”farmer year into 200000″ can only be “scenery here alone good”,it can only be caused by underlying rich illusion. Although the selective reporting routines,but shielding the livelihood of the people more difficult. If the facts presented always “illogical”,that this disease is the most difficult place,let people lost place. She Zongming (Hubei graduate)
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March 19th, 2012
In less than a month,the United States of America “occupied Wall Street” movement from dozens of young people launched demonstrations,evolved into a million Man March,rapidly from a New York spread to all over the country. More and more places to hold “occupation” activities,more and more trade union organizations and colleges students participate in demonstrations,more and more celebrities delivered a speech expressing sympathy and support.”Occupied Wall Street” is a so-called no creed,no organization,no leadership of the movement is loose,in a short period of time Cheng Liaoyuan’s potential? Fundamentally speaking,because the movement reflects the American public opinion,anger and resentment,with a wide range of public opinion and social foundation.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyWall Street of the greed and inequality is caused by the United States public anger causes. Since 2008 since the outbreak of the financial crisis,the United States government passed a $700000000000 bailout plan,with the taxpayers’ money to the relief of Wall Street,the huge bad debts to pay for speculators. After the crisis of American economic depression,unemployment rate house does not fall high,many people have lost their homes,lost his job; but Wall Street “fat cat” not only by theLawSanctions,but paid according to take,the bonus according to collar. The rich get richer,the poor are getting poorer. “Occupied Wall Street” logical,become people to vent their anger “punching bag”.In addition,more and more people to the United States of America’s “money politics”,”the government” disappointed and resentful. The United States financial and other industry giants to two parties offer a huge political donations,Congress is very difficult by limiting financial speculation or reducing the gap between rich and poor bill.ObamaIn the campaign when he said legislation to strengthen the supervision on the financial market,but has been blocked in Congress last year narrowly approved by Congress,in this case,but its core content is “castrated”: Wall Street engaged in financial derivatives problem not touched basically. Even so,more than a year has passed,and the bill is still like a mere scrap of paper,no implementation details. In addition,the United States parties fight,mutual handicap,make a lot of policy can not be quickly and effectively implemented,would make people very angry.To change the status quo has become the United States of America common voice,even President Obama had to admit that,people now than four years ago,and is thought of change has become the United States of the broad masses of the people the main demands. Some demonstrators call a spade a spade against war,against cuts to public welfare,to “work,don’t cut”,to the United States government and Congress,demand change.Obviously,”occupied Wall Street” be just unfolding,is planning to spend the winter,also intends to pitch Camp Liberty Square in New York. On one hand,it is a spontaneous social movement,it is difficult to evolve into a leading American political party movement. But on the other hand,movement has changed American politics,democratic and Republican to compete to take this matter,as his own trumpet,blaming each other. As half a century ago the anti-Vietnam war demonstrations,”occupied Wall Street” will undoubtedly the elections next year,on the future of American foreign policy to have a significant and far-reaching impact.
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March 19th, 2012
TanGlobal market got a little better,the European debt crisis worsens.Arrived 6 days on October 4th,EuropeanCentral bankAnd the Bank of England continue to put good news,not only to keep interest rates low,expand the scale of quantitative easing monetary policy. The governor of the Bank of England gold well known,English is currently in the nineteen thirties the most severe since the global financial crisis,the Bank of England it is necessary to restart the policy of quantitative easing,the central bank’s monetary policy committee has decided to purchase $75000000000 of government bonds. On October 6th,President of the European Central BankTrichetIn the interest rate after resolution of the press conference,the European Central Bank will once again launched 12 months refinancing operations,and in one or two grade market to buy bonds.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyIntroduction to quantitative easing monetary policy,make the euro rebounded slightly,and the United States of America’s non-farm employment data exceeds the market to anticipate,Chinese National Day vacation,hedge market sentiment improves,the dollar index down concussion slightly; as of October 6th,American stock market in the three yang. Due to the loose monetary policy,plus Germany,the Dutch Parliament to extend through the stabilization fund of the motion,the debt crisis and the possibility of collapse fall.Good times don ‘t last long. In October 7th,the international ratings agency Fitch Spain’s long-term foreign currency and currency issuer default rating of direct reduction of two grades,from AA down to AA,the rating outlook to negative,Spanish support short-term rating F1 + constant. Italy at the same time,the foreign currency long-term issuer default rating from “AA -” down to “A +”,will short-term issuer default rating from “F1 +” down to “F1″,and the long term prospects for negative. According to the Portuguese media reported,the international credit rating agency Moodie investor services company cut 7 of Portugal’s 9 financial institutions,credit rating. The news that the United States leads to three major stock indexes fell,termination of the auspicious situation of three yang.In countries such as Germany was determined that collapse of the euro,the loose monetary policy is to help Greece,Portugal and other countries of the last trick. The euro area make debt countries continue to tighten fiscal policy,on the other hand,the parties share the cost saving of peripheral eurozone countries.The euro zone’s austerity plan is Utopian,Greece and other countries of the deficit reduction plan is almost impossible task,these countries did not find new economic point of growth. Also,quantitative easing monetary policy and expanded the stabilization fund to have serious negative effect,pushing up the euro zone of future inflation pressure,expanding the private investor losses,not help solve the fiscal austerity measures of social contradiction.The quantitative easing monetary policy although scale is not large,but has a strong symbolic significance. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet et al as the tight monetary policy advocates,Germany has always supported the tight monetary and fiscal discipline in debt,but under pressure from hand to push the quantitative easing monetary policy,the debt crisis in fiscal discipline,is the central bank issued currency clear signal.The future of the global biggest problem is inflation,this round of inflation will start from europe.The euro area and the United States are different,not through the seigniorage will inflation crisis onto the world,the loose monetary policy will lead to two results,one is inside the eurozone inflation,exchange rate of euro continues downward; two is to split the cost,by the national taxpayers,bank share inflation and cost of debt. The eurozone finance ministers meeting in July 21st reached the rescue clause,private investors would bear 21% of the loss. Financial institutions in 2020 before the need for Greece to provide 135000000000 euros of financing. Germany,Holland and other states that 21% for a bank,insurance company such investors to take too light,these private creditors more share,France and the European Central Bank is strongly opposed to. All private investors have to bear the cost of the debt crisis,with the assets of financial institutions balance sheet will worsen further,which will push the European central bank implemented a more relaxed monetary policy,global inflation is expected to rise further.Rising inflation expectations for China in transition economy is not good news,Chinese enterprises of raw materials costs will continue to rise,manpower costs will continue to rise in the channel. For Chinese enterprises,engaged in the entity economy will be the chicken,only the financial resources and investment is profitable sources. Have ample funds for Chinese enterprises,welcomed the opportunity to occupy resources. The Chinese entity economy downward,in turn a deterioration in the global economy.The euro area temporarily to avoid collapse,costly,global in inflation expectations and fiscal tightening double pain,in the fourth quarter,even in 2012.
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March 19th, 2012
COSCO Group is a large integrated shipping logistics enterprise group. Shipping,COSCO Group has nearly 800 ships of all types of modern merchant ships,about 58000000 tons deadweight,the size of the fleet ranks first in China,in the forefront of the world. Among them,the first domestic container fleet,fourth in the world; dry bulk fleet dimensions first in the world; the world’s first special type groceries fleet dimensions; but also a super tanker fleet. Port logistics of COSCO Logistics: top hundred of China’s logistics enterprises of the first; COSCOThe Pacific Ocean(601099,SharesIn the world has a dock) rights annual throughput ranked fifth in the world. Shipbuilding and repair: COSCO shipbuilding industry company and COSCO Group’s shipbuilding capacity in China third; COSCO ship repairing ability Top Asian top,known as the “industry” aircraft carrier”.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyAt present,in addition to local Chinese company,COSCO Group in overseas formed nine regional company. Overseas area company as a wholly owned subsidiary of COSCO Group,group company carries on the direct management. Review and summary of COSCO implemented the strategy of globalization process,the author thinks that mainly presents in the following six aspects,also known as the “six globalization”.Business service globalizationGlobalization is the most direct expression is operating service globalization. At present,we have in More than 50 countries and regions with the company and offices. Overseas formed in Hongkong,Europe,America,Singapore,Japan,Australia,Korea,Africa and Western Asia 9 regional companies. In order to effectively promote the globalization of service,we in 2000 identified “two change” development strategy in the new century. In recent years,according to this one strategy,shipping,logistics and around three key industries of shipbuilding,actively adjust the fleet structure,improve the profitability of the fleet; shipping related industry to consolidate,develop modern logistics industry,repair industry. Enterprises also realize from the transnational management to transnational corporation changes,efforts are being made to the global change.Business service globalization needs proper organization structure to guarantee. COSCO original on overseas “block management”,namely with the regional management,so as to form dimensions advantage. With the group of professional management to promote and overseas strength,we found that this management mode can not completely meet the needs of business development,especially for container transport,easy to form a profit center,an independent,difficult to achieve global vertical integration management,does not help improve group whole benefit and core competitiveness. To this end,we readjusted the overseas management pattern,we introduce advanced IRIS2 system and SAP global financial information system,used to business consisting mainly of matrix type management mode of container transport,started the implementation of global vertical integration management. Through reasonable recombine,we feel,the internationalization degree improve rapidly,the service level of globalization make a spurt of progress,but also for our future in the overseas further development has laid a solid foundation.The capital globalizationThe relative management globalization,capital globalization is the most fundamental significance of globalization. Over the years,according to the shipping industry capital intensive,long payback period features,COSCO in international capital market undertook fruitful exploration.One is the overseas listing. According to the shipping industry capital intensive,long payback period features,far in the international capital market to raise funds,expand advocate dimensions of course of study,improve the competitiveness of the respect undertook beneficial exploration. In far group under the unified arrangement,all listed companies rely on capital market to the business reorganization and integration,the effective realization of capital magnification and company value. As we passChina Ocean(601919,Shares) the integration of shipping advocate industry chain,through COSCO Pacific integrated terminal operations,through theCOSCO Shipping(600428,SharesIntegration of special ship transport business),through the far investment integration of ship repair business. Now,far into the listed companies assets have been accounted for the group’s total assets of more than 75%,”capital COSCO” takes shape.Two is the issuance of commercial paper and asset securitization. COSCO Group in March 21,1995 in the United States of America issued first commercial paper,by letter of credit guarantee. Thereafter,the COSCO Group for 7 consecutive years in the international financial market to issue commercial paper,as its implement globalization strategy,improve the market competitiveness in the global finance. Far in the international market of asset securitization project won several “best asset securitization project”,”best structural financing project” and other honorary.Three is the ship leasing. Traditionally,we passed to bank loan to shipbuilding. But by the end of 1998,I was appointed as president of COSCO COSCO Group,the balance sheet is not optimistic,it is very difficult to pass bank loan way to develop fleet. Faced with the immense potential of market space,COSCO creatively put forward the “from the boat owners to manage to control ship management change” development train of thought,according to market changes begin flexible charter business.Capital globalization,not only for COSCO raised valuable development funds,and make the COSCO established international governance mechanism,implementation shareholder,society,enterprise value three return maximization.Management of culture globalizationMultinational companies not only in the global integration of success,in the cultural management of localized on the same excellence. Different countries and regions have different cultures,with differentLawPolicy,we must respect the local customs,strictly abide by the law of the place of policies,operating in accordance with the law. Far in the globalization development of always adhere to the “global thinking,localized operation”. 2006 November,”Chinese ocean” board of directors in corporate governance by virtue of the excellent performance won the Hongkong Institute of directors named the “Directors of the Year Awards 2006″ listed company Hang Seng group,became the first to receive the award of the H company.COSCO adhere to the “do in Rome as Rome does.” another important aspect is to carry out overseas staff localization management,of which the most important is the overseas employees localization and market. Our overseas executives of Listed Companies in the implementation of stock option system,on the general staff also by referring to local market to determine the level of wages,which greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of the staff work overseas.In addition,we adhere to the overseas company senior management personnel localization approach,maximizing local staff in developing local markets in action. Overseas employees regardless of where they come from,no matter what color,as long as the “entered town,is far person”. Many of the local staff was hired as the overseas company’s deputy general manager until general manager.Cooperation and competition globalizationChina’s growing influence on the world economy,but due to the international of Chinese ideology being “bias”,the specific circumstances do not understand,”China Threat Theory” have appeared. From long experience,in international to eliminate the “China Threat Theory”,need international seen and recognized “Chinese opportunity theory” and “China responsibility theory”. COSCO is the practice of globalization in business in competition and cooperation,adhere to win-win. Through cooperation,become rivals as partners,with the resources of others to make up their own inadequacies,so as to continuously improve their core competitiveness.In 1997 we in container transportation,first with Japan’s Kawasaki Kisen,Taiwan of China shipping company,and later accepted Han Jin of South Korea shipping company to join,mutual coordination of rent accommodation,sent a ship,built the world’s largest container shipping services Union “CKYH”. We and the world’s largest auto shipping company Nippon Yusen established a joint venture dedicated car shipping company,and the world’s largest heavy lift ship company of Holland BIGLIFT cooperation. In early 2007,US and Japan the only company of freight of railroad of Japanese railroad freight company signed a cooperation agreement,in China to Japanese sea rail transport project,once again into the depth of Japan has been called the world’s most difficult to enter the market.COSCO is actively promoting and foreign investment in overseas port and other cooperation on the project. For example,in Italy,in Naples pier,Belgian Antwerp harbor port of Piraeus,Greece,the United States of America’s long beach harbor,Singapore harbor,Hongkong,has its own wharf. Through the series of joint venture,COSCO smoothly into the international terminal market.Social responsibility of GlobalizationAs a Chinese multinational company,COSCO has long been a focus for a wide range of “enterprise citizen”. In recent years,the rapid development of enterprises,the fuel consumption increased at the same time,we adjust fleet structure,optimization design,reduce speed routes as well as the development of new techniques,make the 2009 energy consumption reduced to 0.82 tons of standard coal / million yuan of income,compared with 2005′s 1.01 tons of standard coal / million yuan income decrease 18.8%. In 2009 November in Qingdao held the Sixth International Shipping (China) annual meeting,initiated by COSCO,CKYH alliance jointly issued the slowdown,energy saving and emission reduction of the “Qingdao declaration”,already obtained apparent effect.In order to better fulfill their social responsibilities,in 2005,set up its first domestic enterprise charity fund “COSCO charitable foundation”,many times the lives of the poor,to donate. This includes the 2008 “5? 12″ big WenchuanEarthquakeLater,far through the charitable contributions to the earthquake of about 83000000 yuan. In April 16,2010,COSCO Group to the Yushu earthquake disaster area donation of $10000000,this is afterwards the same year 4 month to arid regions of southwestern donated 9900000 yuan again later contributions,is our responsibility and social practical action and the concrete performance.In 2006,COSCO has completed the domestic first to protect environment,save resources,against corruption as the focus of the sustainable development report,the report on the United Nations list “Global Compact” model,is the first Chinese enterprise is also the world’s first shipping company in. In view of COSCO in performing a “Global Compact” the outstanding performance,the Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon personally sent a letter,inviting me to participate in the 2007 7 month in Geneva at the United Nations Summit “Global Compact”. In 2008 July,I was invited to participate in the general secretary Ban Ki-moon held in Beijing the “Global Compact” informal discussion and on the behalf of COSCO’s solemn commitment,formally joined the United Nations Climate declaration “advocate” attention. In the “Universal Declaration of human rights” to publish 60 anniversary,COSCO Group has also signed the “Universal Declaration of human rights”,becoming China’s first signing of the declaration of the state-owned enterprises.Diplomatic resources and GlobalizationAccording to many years in the overseas development experience,we feel,diplomatic resources is the development of enterprises in the overseas must be put to good use is an important resource. If used properly,can play a business single-handedly can not play a role. In the Chinese comprehensive national strength growing international influence,grow with each passing day today,this resource has great potential for use.(the writer of COSCO (Group) Corporation chairman,party secretary)
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March 19th, 2012
Oil prices are finally dropped! This is 16 months,the domestic refined oil prices fell for the first time. After the long vacation first day by the stateDevelopment and Reform CommissionThe announcement,undoubtedly inspire people. Although each litre fall only two wool much,but enough to let the owners hope can again,again.In fact,fills with the anticipation that was more than a car. In recent years,as oil price adjustment,the very next day breakfast stall,most students can hear such talk: alas! Oil prices rise again! These years,we watched it on “broken 6.” “” broken 7 “,and it affects,is not merely the car city hot and cold,and most of all,is the whole logistics costs rise fare,price soared,and the closely related. In today’s high CPI,people yearn for a decline in oil prices can become an incision,reducing burden for the people.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyHowever,hope is just only a wishful thinking,because the oil price adjustment,now is to look at the international oil prices face,and this is also the “marketization” trend. But,we most want to see is that international oil price falls down,ah,the domestic oil price is very calm and composed,so “rising more or less.” “” up fast or slow “became one of the current oil price adjustment mechanism of the biggest criticism. In this regard,the NDRC also made a response,there is the phenomenon of misunderstanding,the public. But someone quickly sorted out: This is 7 years,a total of the 24 times,price of only 7 back.Oil price how law,perhaps is a professional problem,anyway,the price always rational,hair change appoint not easy for oil magnates in the past,then came the news: Sinopec Hebei branch by insiders burst,printed 500 box name flower 130000 this time,I’m afraid the NDRC will not hang live face,really turn iron into steel!The price is up is down,I’m afraid is not a market you say the costs are too high,loss-making,that how to make this family thing? Not only that,rather than simply not to conform,more about the conditions of the development and Reform Commission prices drop,also make a very let a person warm heart reason: “reduce social cost,ease price total level rises pressure”!Yes,inflation is now a big national condition,since the thought,then please more generous,more to see some. If possible,have more space,you can knock the price down a little? Pull one hair and use the whole body,the price adjustment will cause a chain reaction,we expect oil prices decline,more looking forward to the decline in oil prices can be lighten people’s burden began,looking forward to because of high oil prices and rising ticket prices,prices can be responsive,quickly down. Newspaper commentator Wang Ziming
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March 19th, 2012
Zhang LantaoIn the market of government procurement,government procurement procedures are relatively complex,involved in the higher threshold,increasing the transaction cost,many small and medium-sized enterprises and step back,often automatically quit the government procurement market,and further increased the difficulty of financing of small and medium-sized enterprises. One solution is in the government procurement system,formulate preferential policies on financing of small and medium-sized enterprises. Government procurement support SME credit guarantee is of great necessity and strong feasibility:Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyFirst,the government procurement budget public endoplasmic requirements. As a means of fiscal expenditure,government procurement for the procurement department to provide the required products and services at the same time,must carry a certain policy,social and economic regulation,support and protection of national industry,to provide public products and other content. Especially in promoting the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises,government procurement shall have a significant positive effect.Second,at present,the whole world economy is in turmoil,unbalance and crisis,many countries financial debt crisis on China’s economy,the greatest risk is will weaken the export. Therefore,our country should be appropriately increased including procurement,finance expenditure,to stimulate the market operation. Small and medium-sized enterprises are the guarantee of our country obtain employment,maintain the basic national income and consumption level,continue to expand exports as an important part of the national financial expenditure,government procurement as an important content,behoove is necessary to provide credit guarantee,to solve their financing problems.Third,from the developed countries in financial financing for SMEs promotion situation,is worth our learning from the aspects are: (1) to the commercial bank oriented financing mode,namely by governmentLawThe standard of the system,together with the relevant policy guidance,the bank and the small and medium-sized enterprise financing relationship closer; (2) the government must establish and use of practical economic means,to effectively eliminate or weaken the financial institutions to small and medium sized enterprises financing risk; (3) the government procurement as the expenditure form,must make clear to the small and medium-sized enterprise support function,namely the establishment of special legal norms.In fourth,China’s government procurement to the small and medium-sized enterprise financing way innovation. To support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in deepening reform of government procurement system in a prominent position,reduction of small and medium enterprises to participate in the government procurement of the access threshold,draw lessons from international experience,and actively introduce a government to purchase credit guarantee means,for small and medium-sized enterprises to provide financing services,has now become the regional government of the new content.Government procurement of credit guarantee for small and medium enterprises form can have varied,each have advantages and disadvantages,unable to agree on which is right. However,all the problems can be attributed to: either way of guarantee,the ultimate economic risk undertake by who? Therefore,must according to market economy “the right,responsibility,benefit of unification,” party risks,each have the benefit principle,to the government procurement support SME credit guarantee service object,purpose of loan,secured amount,duration of use,risk taking,loan interest rates,guarantee cost and guarantee variety etc. to rigorous,standardized and transparent system,establishing rigorous and strict internal and external supervision and multiple audit system,to ensure that the risk responsibility system and fund use of transparent and fair.In order to ensure the Government Procurement Promoting the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises sustainable development,proposed to do several works:(1) establish a sound national unityLaws and regulations,and the introduction of rules. Especially to the small and medium-sized enterprise qualification accreditation,the industry standard,participation in government procurement specification.(2) establishment of three-in-one regulatory mechanism. Apparently,the government procurement sector,financial institutions and small and medium-sized enterprises of different ownership system of the genus. While in the government procurement activities in the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises,the need for a dedicated organization coordination mechanism. As the regional specialized coordination meeting,government departments specialized office,local industry associations,etc..(3) set up a special fund and reinsurance system. Due to the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises in essence is still “subprime”,therefore,in order to guard against credit risk derivatives,necessary in funding for special insurance.(4) the intention to develop the area of government procurement of financial products banks are joint-stock commercial banks,almost no state-owned banks. From the current bank government procurement enterprises financing products,the practice of all not the same. A more common way is the Guarantee Corporation in government procurement for the financing guarantee business,the other way is bank need government procurement as a credit guarantee at the same time also requires the enterprises as additional security,guarantee,mortgage and other forms of. Can think of: for banks to carry out government procurement financing business,is still in the exploration,start and the implementation stage,whether in the system,running mechanism and technology method,or in the evaluation,supervision and audit and management etc,need to build perfect.(5) the establishment of a national and local levels of government’s Information Center,for small and medium-sized enterprises to provide effective and timely information and services. Among them,should strengthen the various types of chamber of Commerce,association and guild function,for small and medium-sized enterprises to provide comprehensive social service and advocacy services. Thus,for small and medium enterprises in the legal affairs,market expectations,program evaluation,accounting,auditing,invite public bidding,Tax,notary,personnel training,personnel recruitment,business consulting,technical exchanges and other aspects of the provision of comprehensive services.(6) the establishment and improvement of government procurement to support medium and small enterprises credit preferential tax policies. For example,expand the business tax exemption treatment to small and medium enterprises credit guarantee institutions,improve the risk reserve in small and medium enterprise credit guarantee organization income before tax extraction ratio,increase tax rebate mechanism.(7) strengthen international economic exchanges,for SMEs to the international market development to provide credit guarantee.(author: University of International Relations Department of International Economics)
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March 19th, 2012
Because our country is still in the government procurement of the primary stage of development,some places on the policy function of government procurement is not fully known,government procurement supporting policy of small and medium-sized enterprises to still be in initiative phase,policy support is limited and the relative dispersion. From a national perspective,to make the policy function to play its great role,at least should solve several problems:One,straighten out the government procurement and the small and medium-sized enterprise management functions. At present,Ministry of FinanceDoor,development and reform department,construction department,economic and trade sector,the business sector has the right management of government procurement,bidding and small and medium-sized enterprises,functions are not unified,the policy of small and medium-sized enterprises “close-fitting” degree is not a function of the impact of government procurement policy. In addition,we must straighten out the county,city,province and central policy with a different level of policy implementation effect and effect. The basic idea is to the small and medium-sized enterprise apanage principle,with “one class government”,”public finance”,”purchasing”,”a policy” of this one train of thought,this one,city,county and other basic financial sector plays a basic and important role.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storySecondly,the optimization of government procurement and the small and medium-sized enterprise operation mode. Government procurement operation Department is various,such as centralized purchasing agencies,orgnaization of representative of invite public bidding procurement,procurement,engineering trade center,trading center of public resources and the town of street,District,city,province and central procurement of various types of operating mechanism. Hierarchy,nature,different purposes,the special policy carry out,perform will somewhat deviation,influence policy effect. This needs to carry on the integration and optimization.Thirdly,establish a government procurement support small and medium-sized enterprise special policy issues. Can take some special measures: to reduce government procurement scale size and access conditions,enhance the competition of medium and small businesses. On technological innovation,strategic emerging,energy saving and environmental protection,advanced manufacturing and modern service industry such as small and medium-sized enterprises’ participation in the government procurement price concessions; for a number of government procurement projects (such as the United States of America contract for no more than $10000,small government procurement contracts to give small businesses); of major construction project contract to the successful enterprises to provide resolution; loan guarantees; the research and development contract implementation of subsidy system and early R & D products direct procurement system. Further development of a research plan,support small and medium enterprises outside the city,provincial and foreign markets,and obtain international fund.Fourth,LawThe problem is particularly important. It should be clearLaws and regulationsRelated terms,guarantee policy falls to real point. Such as “government procurement law” stipulated in twenty-second on the suppliers participating in government procurement is set too high,the exclusion of small and medium-sized enterprises to enter into government procurement market. “Has the ability to independently bear civil liability” provisions,limiting the SOHO and partnership nature of the small and medium enterprises to participate in government procurement. “Has a good business reputation” regulation,limited by a commercial enterprise (such as pure production enterprises,processing enterprises did not undertake business) to participate in government procurement. “Have to pay tax and social security funds good record” limit exemption for small and medium enterprises to participate in government procurement,such as social welfare,energy saving,environmental protection enterprises,the small and medium sized enterprises. “Participating in the government procurement activities within the previous three years in business activities,no record of serious violation of law” limits the newly established small and medium enterprises to participate in government procurement. (the writer of doctor of law,Guangdong Province Foshan City Nanhai District Government Procurement Center Director)
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March 19th, 2012
Yangtze Daily NewsGuo position (Henan lecturer)In the past two months,Wenzhou the Chinese folk is leasehold the most active place is hard. Many folk debit and credit risk endings and behind the capital network as a case of exposure gradually surfaced bank funds are,”which appeared Guanyin” figure,but many can not see the light of the black gold doped. (September 29th,”Nanfang Daily”)In recent years,some individuals and companies for the development or production expanded the business started to raise funds from the society,the folk credit presenting with a rapidly enlarging trend. It is understood,private capital into the official folk usurious the situation in Wenzhou was “very common”. The personage inside course of study to the media exposure,Wenzhou local many civil servants because of status,a higher reputation,often able to raise more folk capital,some civil servants even becomes one of the folk capital collect node.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyShould admit,folk credit so active,largely because of the domestic financial system induced by the defect,from the current domestic bank based financial system market level is not high. In fact,the informal financial market effectively alleviate the economic development in the contradiction of capital supply and demand,but at present civilian financial activities in the form of complex dislocations,to economy development brought certain negative effect.How to avoid the disadvantages of informal financial market,let the borrowing of sunshine,make plenty of folk capital and loans to small and medium enterprises not free to achieve full complementary? The government should renew the idea,passed legislation to private financial markets in a suitable location and clear identity,their incorporation into the formal financial supervision system,to ensure that the folk finance has reasonable space for the existence and development of.The government should perfect system proceed with,build advance filing system,do a good job on the folk financial activity and the risk of tips,guide social capital to rational investment. At the same time,construction of folk finance risk response rescue mechanism,such as a reserve system,deposit insurance system,then loan system,external aid system,strengthen the folk financial guide.Borrowing the sun is to solve the problem of the recipe,but there is a premise,it is to do away with the “Rent-seeking”,regulating public personnel administrative behavior. On rent-seeking is the main way of establishing constraints on power system,achieving a “legal rights” and “power system”,make the government gradually reduced to the interpose of the market,namely “market to market,government to the government”,make government officials the power in their hands become limited,transparent power,in order to enhance government officials of corruption and rent-seeking cost.
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March 19th, 2012
For a long time,mankind has been eager to ever-young. However,the fact proves adequately,sickness and death is the natural law,any force cannot change.The face of the human nursing problems,different nationalities,different countries,different historical periods,may take a different way. For example in China for thousands of years history of civilization,”raise children to provide against old age”,namely to blood ties and to human affection for warm agent “family”,are the most important ways to carry forward Chinese national endowment of the fine tradition of loving father,faithful son.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyCan China carry out the policy of family planning,family structure and its related by blood ties than before are not identical,namely “family” has increasingly become a realistic problem; now China has entered the aging society.Simple words,Chinese pension issues have become increasingly prominent.According to the September 29,2011 “news” report,in September 28th,the CPPCC held “to develop our country endowment enterprise” proposals will. “Housing endowment” proposal for the Department ofThe China Banking Regulatory CommissionRelevant person in charge there,he said,many countries have adopted “housing endowment” measures,to cope with population aging. CBRC thereon also launched a special investigation,but as a result of our existing system of property rights for 70 years,”housing endowment” difficult to implement.For the “housing endowment”,I really beg to differ,and that in China is carried out “housing endowment” is basically a dream.First of all,”housing endowment” premise is to have a house. However,in China the existing about 1000000000 people,really have since housing (have the house property certificate),how many? In other words,no house old man,how to do “housing endowment”?Secondly,even own their homes for the elderly,which can have the “property rights” for 70 years?Make known to every family,a basic common sense,itLawSense,commodity house to the owners,the so-called “70 property rights” has been discounted,or less than 70 years.Moreover,according to the April 6,2010 “China Daily” and other mainstream media reports,Chinese Architecture(601668,SharesThe average life expectancy for 25-30 years). And the author had to Chinese architecture,participated in a seminar,many experts also put forward Chinese new commercial housing average service life of 30 years.That is,China’s commercial housing situation,take 30 years to carry out the use of “housing endowment”,for many Chinese,basic it is the full moon in water.Furthermore,Chinese society has always attached great importance to family,namely human affection as a link to the family endowment. That is to say,for “housing endowment” the cool way of provide for the aged,many Chinese will instinctively and rationally be rejected.In addition,there is also a main reason,it is China the relevant financial institutions is less likely to accept the average life of only 30 years of commercial housing,and the housing around on both sides of the Changjiang river.To make a long story short,the author thinks,relevant state departments should research attention from the “housing endowment” this does not suit China’s actual way away from,and actively to concern other forms,and vigorously promote such as “family” that endowment level,because in China to carry out “housing endowment” is the basic dream of.
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March 19th, 2012
Ye JingyuA week before the national day,is to be in the A shares and H shares listed on the Wenzhou glasses industry leading enterprises in Zhejiang letter Thai group,because capital catenary ruptures,the boss run away,18 years of corporate life cease abruptly.From March this year so far,Wenzhou has more than 80 enterprises,the bankruptcy of the company,the boss is missing workers Taoxin event,only since September,is high up to 25. Including the letter peaceful group,three flag group,Portman,south of leather and a number of other well-known private enterprises.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyA folk debit and credit risk transfer to the industrial crisis is the outbreak of. Wenzhou SME Development Association chairman Zhou Dewen pointed out that,if left the crisis spread,before the end of the year,Wenzhou 40% will be out of business.At the end of 9,Wenzhou municipal Party committee,city hall called commercial,banking,security industry and relevant government departments frequently meeting,introduced intensive industry proposal,in order to protect small and medium enterprises in Wenzhou. Wenzhou municipal Party committee,city hall on September 28th issued “on the stability of normative finance order promote economic transition development views”,and formed a special leading group,hope that through scanty develop simultaneously,guide the private lending standards development.Wenzhou is countrywide private lending market in the financial crisis of the gray zone of a miniature,in tight,private capital investment in no way in the context of,Jiangsu,Fujian,Henan and Inner Mongolia provinces have been lending risk high risk area.The newspaper interviewed a number of people in the industry think,through to the legalization of civil finance,folk lending into the mainstream of the credit system,is to avoid the occurrence of “China type credit crisis” key.Private enterprise survival crisisThis year,rising labor costs,raw material prices,the appreciation of the renminbi,the tax burden is overweight,many unfavorable factors impact the existence space of middle and small-sized enterprises.Wenzhou is the largest producer of lighter Oriental lighter factory chairman Li Zhongjian said,the financial storm in 2008 when,in 2008 the eastern margin is small but can live,now there are orders to do,”do more thanks to”.Wenzhou private lending mess behind,it is industrial printing,small and medium-sized private enterprises profit has become a widespread phenomenon.According to the Wenzhou by the Commission report,a lot of enterprises years ago received orders not done already loss. A business enterprise also can get,stop production closes,or cut down the best maintenance; originally thin profits of industries such as shoe-making,stainless steel,leather and so on,is already more than the boss run away events.When manpower,raw material prices are rising,with cost and price advantage to win the manufacturing industry of Wenzhou civilian battalion the limping. And the monetary policy of the inhibition caused by financing,and become overwhelmed the last straw.On September 21st,”Zhejiang letter Thai Group boss.” the news has been passed to raise a Babel of criticism of,the company gathered outside the forty or fifty creditors,the letter peaceful group executives are in the normal production of the enterprise organization.”We order has been discharged into the next year,there is no reason to go bankrupt,but also don’t believe the boss really will run.” The letter peaceful group under the Nobuyasu optical a company executive said.Founded in 1993,Zhejiang letter Thai Holdings Limited,is the local glasses industry a well-known enterprises. The letter peaceful group founder,chairman Hu Fulin,is also a local influential man,was elected the tenth session of the Wenzhou Municipal People’s Congress,the returned overseas Chinese and their relatives in advanced individual,excellent builders of socialism,many municipal model worker,the 2006 Global Chinese business leaders such as honor.However,from 2008 after financial crisis,Hu Fulin began to transition to the investment of solar photovoltaic industry. While this transformation,widely thought to be caused by the capital chain rupture reason.Wenzhou Industrial Park Management Committee Office of the deputy director Zou Jianqiang said,after the financial crisis,monetary policy,makes the banks is almost “chasing the ass” to give loans,”at that time,most companies consider too optimistic,then,from bank loans to upgrade technology,scale expansion,expansion of business scope. One or two years later,when the complete basic infrastructure,need capital investment production,produce benefit,money is then tightened.”A close,undoubtedly the enterprise funds chain taut.And medium-sized enterprises such as is,small business is more difficult. Due to ongoing funding from the bank,the merchant of Wenzhou a Chi off its years of operation of the sporting goods trade enterprises,”for those of US mortgage a few small companies,in fact it is difficult to get a loan from the bank.”A Chi said,he launched the industry’s small enterprises to “UNPROFOR” form to apply to the bank for a loan,as money is tighter,”UNPROFOR” way also does not work.But,to obtain loans from the bank’s cost is not only high interest rates on loans,loans other than a variety of additional cost also press the enterprise out of breath. Wenzhou a proprietor of an enterprise as an example,to obtain 11000000 yuan from the bank loan,he must meet the following conditions: 1 of the monthly bank branch,opened 22000000 yuan of bank acceptance bills of exchange,3000000 yuan to buy insurance.In desperation,a chi to borrowing,but private lending risk further restrict banks to lend to businesses willingness.Wenzhou local banks said,small and medium enterprises loan default or simply not return loan intention is rising,the SME loan risk appears to be emerging. “Small business loan risk is positively related with borrowing costs,we note,borrowing costs rise gradually,even higher than the 2008,this is a signal,the small business loan risk is also high.” A Zhejiang native banks responsible person said,the private lending has cost more than most small businesses can afford,if the bank loan is due,small enterprises would not have bank loans,unwilling to lend the high cost of the folk capital to flow.Although compared with private lending,banks’ borrowing costs would be much lower,but to the small and medium-sized enterprise loan interest rates are already from last year’s benchmark interest rate rise 10% ~ 30%,increased to 70% above the base rate of about.According to the Wenzhou Municipal Commission of economy and information statistics,at the end of the first quarter,the local 100 leading enterprises interest expenses amounted to 311000000 yuan,grow 40% compared to the same period,far beyond the enterprise 26.15% debt growth ratio and 18.3% sales growth rate.The danger is,via a letter appoint data shows,nearly six into Wenzhou enterprises exist for other enterprises to be secured financing situation. Once the credit crisis out of control,will be secured to each other between the company produce a series of chain reaction,which caused a large number of bank bad debts and mass unemployment.Borrowing the double pressureIn a tight situation,shortage of credit funds and exuberant borrowing requirement,let the small and medium-sized enterprise financing hitherto unknown difficulty,civilian capital is also very active,derived from an attached to the bank,and free in the banking system in addition to the indirect financing mode. “Small and medium-sized financial no money,no money is not Wenzhou.” Wenzhou Fangxing limited company chairman Fang Peilin said,”very low profits of small and medium-sized enterprises,is absolutely not going to borrow usurious interest to put into operation,and the petty loan company in the hands of the capital,compared to Wenzhou folk capital gross,is just a drop in the bucket,so,the majority of financing small and medium enterprises in Wenzhou,can only rely on a bank,monetary tightening,enterprises can only find guarantee company or pawn,with higher rates of short-term capital turnover.”According to Fang Peilin said,in the line of credit tense circumstances,banks will put forward to the borrower,first of all to pull and loan equal to increase deposit,bank deposit base,then the bank to grant loans to the borrower.To deposit the most direct,fast approach,is turned to the financial intermediary. As the condition,the borrower needs according to the length of the deposit period,the amount of additional funds,to pay a sum of interest intermediation.Later,financial intermediary is slightly lower than the borrower to pay interest rates,as the customer returns,or direct transfer customer resources,or by the home from depositors to raise funds,according to the requirements to depositors,borrowers designated bank account and deposit funds,in the original basis of depositors interest on deposits,funds from the Department of intermediary can receive interest income.The folk financial transactions,drive capital to measure big,involve an area wide,the deposit below the premise of free flow,not only in the city,the use of funds,but also extend to all parts of the country.In this case,some Wenzhou security company has set his sights on all parts of the country,a huge amount of money from the provinces and cities outside the whole “moved” to the Wenzhou bank,short-term inside can obtain interest income.The first quarter of this year,Wenzhou financial institutions renminbi deposits over the beginning of this year increased nearly 80000000000 yuan. “This one apart from the mineral and real estate investment cash out of the capital,a large part of the deposit” is moving”.” Fang Peilin said.In fact,banks in the folk capital turnover has played the role of raising interest rates.A number of lenders were confirmed,they lent money in half of the funds,the other half from the bank loans out,usually is “we will house property collateral to the bank out,with 2 points of interest to borrow money,and four or five interest rates put out to small business owners,to earn the spread”,or “in 1.5 or 2 points of interest from a number of borrowed funds boss and acceptance of bills of exchange,and then secretly to 3 to 3.5 high”. Actually increased the burden of enterprise financing.Fang Peilin said,in continuing to tighten monetary expected,business loans due to return later,it may no longer be able to get a loan from the bank,therefore,many security companies also began to not willing for business underwritten loans continued.”Only to encourage the development of private finance,let civilian capital through the small loan company,serving the economic construction,to promote healthy development of small and medium-sized enterprises.” Fang Peilin said.Repair of unbalance of financial ecology systemIn view of the current situation of unbalance of the financing environment for private enterprises,recently,Wenzhou Banking Bureau,the Wenzhou Municipal Office of finance according to Wenzhou municipal Party committee,city hall deploy,called includes four big banks,banks,held to promote the small and medium-sized enterprise development bank main controller conference,again called on banks,increase financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises strength,strengthen enterprise financial services.Despite the regulatory early published “on the support of commercial banks to further improve the financial service for small enterprises notice”,support,and a relaxation of the non-performing loans of small enterprises tolerance,the current bank loans to small enterprises,still not enthusiastic.Many commercial banks in the lack of real estate mortgage loans to small and medium enterprises still shunned.Wenzhou Municipal Office of Finance Director Chang Chen Yu said,after the National Day holidays,Wenzhou city hall will be organized in 25 working group,stationed in the 25 municipal banking institutions. Their task is the implementation of the Wenzhou city hall,newly published “on the stability of normative finance order to promote the transformation of economic development views” content,to assist the banks and enterprises to financing docking,requiring banks to not smoke endowment,not pressure the loan bank loan; assist in understanding enterprise,prevent small and medium enterprises fund chain break.Wenzhou banking regulatory bureau deputy director Zhou said in his later days,they require banks,to actively apply for funds and the scale of higher amount; interest rate to drop,the highest rise no more than 30%; a company capital catenary to rupture,if involves many bank loans,banks to “back the same into the same”,alone cannot smoke endowment wait.”According to the current situation of Wenzhou,the first bank to be social responsibility requirements,to help companies tide over the difficulties.” The green destiny that week. People ‘s Bank of ChinaWenzhou City Center branch of the vice governor Zhou Songshan said,at present Wenzhou bank loan to small and medium enterprises credit,there should be 30000000000 to 40000000000. In addition,the recent introduction of a variety of preferential policies,should be a short-term policy,will be under the circumstances to adjust.However,Zhou Dewen thinks,Wenzhou should break through the current crisis,is the key to the bold innovation of local finance. “Wenzhou is a microcosm of the country,but the folk financial reform not only to Wenzhou,the whole country is also be imperative.”To this,the Wenzhou financial sector has been in planning more far-reaching “Engineering”,gradually building up Wenzhou into “private capital distribution center”,forming a butt of Yangtze River Delta economic zone and the west side of the Straits Economic Zone,specialized services for small and medium-sized specialized financial centre.Chang Chen woo,Wenzhou will be started in the round rural cooperative financial institutions shareholding system reform,advance rural banks,a rural mutual cooperative development. In addition,but also for the many attempts,expand the pilot of small loan companies,nongovernmental capital management services company pilot,exploration establishs the folk credit registration service center,do do greatly strong equity operation center,exploration establishs Wenzhou financial assets exchange,guide civilian capital investment service center to extend service function.Zhejiang University professor Shi Jinchuan says,Zhejiang banking system and real economy system of ownership of the existence and the size of the asymmetry,financial lags behind the economic development. He thinks,solve the contradiction that should deepen financial market,faithfully bank interest rate marketization,open market access to give aid to medium and small financial institutions,will “off-pump” private capital into the regular army.However,the Wenzhou Municipal Office of finance related people also think,local financial innovation is still long way to go.(trainee reporter CADO contributed to this article)
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March 19th, 2012
Wei Wu.For the entire TMT (communication,media,technology) industry,the most people care about nothing more than VIE (protocol control). This was born in the beginning of the last century,Sina mode,go more than a decade later,today began to encounter a problem. Investors are very concerned about this two points: first,VIE will be banned? Secondly,if it is prohibited,and any other way to accept overseas investment? After all,TMT industry,can saying is a hand feeding large overseas funds.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyVIE debate starting atMa YunPay treasure event,also can say,Ma Yun is the “innovation” poke into the desktop. The criticism of Ma Yun,actually build in those days SinaWang ZhidongOn the silence. According to the then Sina equity arrangements,in fact operating the Beijing Sina Sina information and advertising,Wang Zhidong is more than 70% proportion of possession of large shareholders,and listed the Sina,just a sea shell companies. Wang Zhidong and the board of directors on a stem,tear up an agreement. But he did not do so,a field may have severe personal struggles to eliminate the invisible.This Wang Zhidong thing first,so many people today to be against Ma Yun: why don’t you do that? But these punitive just still stay in the level of slobber,really interesting for the industry feel chill,isDepartment of Commerce”The implementation of the merger of domestic enterprises by foreign investors security review regulations” of ninth: a foreign investor shall not in any way parenchyma circumvents a security review. I remember quite clearly,it is a Friday news,seems to be the management intends to set aside two day weekend time to involve stakeholders,shut the door to plan measures. In TencentMicro-blogThe high five line,I and a fewInternetObservation of critics to discuss this problem. But the commerce department this article described is very vague,use the word “merger”,and the VIE is investment,also seems to be able to say that there is no correlation.The attendant is brewing a new rule: the Hong Kong stock exchange of Hong Kong listed companies implement holding company founder cannot be both VIE overseas corporations. At the same time,the Economic Observer network is disclosed in a report entitled “on Tudou and other Internet companies listed overseas situation report” report,report at the VIE belongs to the contrary,proposed including strengthening supervision,policy guiding,give aid to on the mainland,appropriate to relax the conditions listed four policy suggestions. VIE debate is no longer use ready.From the actual situation,to ban VIE is unlikely. It is divided into two cases. One,according to Sina such has listed,should not be back in the past,in fact it is very difficult to trace back the past,forced operation,will lead to foreign financial market of China’s overall credit of great worry. Secondly,for the future to engage in VIE company,prohibition of this system,will be on the investment environment is adverse,and to attract foreign investment,the current national economic situation,essential.From the point of real operation,I thought,”strengthen supervision” is the future of VIE path on the four most important words. What is the strengthen supervision? The door is not closed,but a few more door. If this point was established,then the most important are: debate,seemingly to block VIE,actually is: who is the VIE supervisor?In accordance with the report writes: “without the Ministry of Commerce for approval and I will agree,TaxDepartment,foreign exchange management,industry and commerce departments shall not accept the agreement or the agreement recognized record. Ministry of information industry and other departments in charge of industry from the industry policy and industry characteristic angle,defined the industry protocol control specific criteria,and with the Ministry of Commerce andSecurities and Futures CommissionThe examination and approval work.” — obviously,the keepers of the door,is the Ministry of Commerce and the securities and futures commission.In the report,the Commission also proposed,in the contraction of VIE path at the same time,a lot of support Internet companies in the A shares listed on the. The domestic A market,the SFC is naturally the most powerful regulators. But it is reason to an overseas listing,the SFC will strengthen with the United States SEC securities regulatory agencies. To make a long story short,both in the VIE management,listed on the mainland,overseas to support cooperation,the SFC will play an extremely important role. And the inhabitants of the door,it stayed in the withdrawal of risk investment channels,in fact it took the entire digital industry core lifeblood.In today’s Chinese Internet industry,have greatly small dozen departments rely on more than 50 of theLaws and regulations(many still own issued regulations) can exercise a variety of jurisdiction,in some cases,will form the conflict management. A little bit of example is at the end of 2009The Ministry of cultureAnd the General Administration of press and publication for the online game jurisdiction,the results do Netease world of Warcraft has not introduced. In some examples,is the convergence of three networks. Radio and television and the letter the department interest conflicts,three nets fusion has become one of the biggest causes of lingering,and this,is no longer any secret. Perhaps a coincidence,formation of giant department place of conflict,are usually extremely huge local interests.The VIE “system innovation”,really can be said to be China’s TMT industry grows indispensable catalyst. In various network license,can see the similar “domestic enterprises can apply for” the provisions of. In fact,the Internet has been a foreign off-limits areas,but no foreign risk investment,Chinese Internet industry is difficult to form today’s dimensions.There are always various sounds fairly established reasons,the government needs to sell on VIE implementation and management. This time,this department is the Commission played. I do not object to VIE regulation,but I worry about is,in all related departments of the rules and regulations to limit domestic are eligible only engaged in relevant business at the same time,the regulation of the SFC will once again,form “immortals fighting,mortal suffer” pattern. Disable VIE,will damage the investment situation,the regulation of VIE,once the improper operation,cause industry backwards ten years.In this thesis the Hong Kong stock exchange the new rules,doesn’t really hurt VIE enterprise under the frame of interest,but in accordance with the Internet veteran Xie Wen’s argument,it is effectively blocked the company founder from other shareholders’ interest will play in their own company twist another around one’s little finger practice. This seemingly simple but defined quite clear rules,that is the mainland regulators should study hard. Fuzzy,broad,since the conflict with the provisions in this sector,leaving a lot of self explanation of space at the same time,will only form three results: sectional interest strife,enterprise,breed not know what course to take power corruption.(the writer is the Shanghai Jiao Tong University’s media and design school teacher)
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March 19th, 2012
Each person should have such a person: not on the appointment,do not reliable,easily change idea,make the people around be taken by surprise,but with a stack of crates,others had to help him drive,because to make a big,all must suffer. He then became be leisurely and carefree,but bitter people around,be conscientious and do one’s best is doing a thing does not calculate,but also for its fault.Is more than one,as long as there exists mutual relationship,organization or company,or the government,or,all seem to have such a “bad boy”. Have a look of Greece,although their finances in a complete mess,always likely to default,how can it,Germany,France,the country’s banks have large Greek bonds,once the Greek really breach,do bad to the collapse of the banking system,they all escape unharmed,and even finish deficit reduction task,goal,each country do not have to be handed in money to,for this bad boy ass.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThis year’s economy may have shrunk by more than 5%,but not a financial investment to stimulate the economy,can only continue constrictive,economy to restore elasticity it. The economic recession,the reduction of revenue,to reduce the deficit is more difficult,then into a vicious spiral.In this case,could only scant oneself in food and clothes,suffering to spend several years,make the economy slowly return to wealth of society essence can support level,to achieve a balanced,to truly recover,restore growth. But have a look in Greece has increased taxes,reduce welfare policy,the public’s reaction,endless strikes that Greece can rely on tourism industry suffers an effect greatly,what to expect them hard to create. Worse,allegedly now Greek tourism has withered,so in this case,as long as there are tourists,will really be slaughter,heard by the daunting. What this country needs is not only a financial aid,and all must accept to own and previous enjoy overdraft debt reality of social welfare.If the EU,IMF because of dissatisfaction with the Greek action failure,without assistance,so the Greek government declared that “cash only supporting to the middle of October” will become a reality. A Greek default,would allow Greece to banking industry downturn,even extended to the whole of Europe,the next bank bankruptcy,run,Greece may be forced out of the euro,the same turbulent political situation. Even if Greece does not breach,because the government did not have enough money to support the public expenditure,payment of salary,social unrest,the depression also inevitable,reach the same goal by different routes.Looking down,the bad child eventually is still expected to eat candy,nobody wants this disaster spread,the Greek will receive assistance,continue tightening. Of course,bad boy,eventually to be taught,fiscal austerity leads to economic downturn,the national credit decrease will continue.China also has its own bad boy,although before is set entirely favor in a star — real estate. Everyone knows that the child asked for too much,but had to repeatedly indulged,for fear that he really out of things,all of us have to suffer. Then,each time in the adult scare,he was quiet for a few days,soon return to one’s old habits,and even become aggravated.As the Greek,any bad child must pay the price for their actions. Sooner or later. People around the same,or longer,and the deep,the baby just prior to quench a thirst with poison.The adults do not seem to intend to continue to give children candy,at least than in any previous period to all.Liu MingkangShe say: even if the real estate fell 50%,banks can hold. It is not much credibility,who knows,if a year or half,banks must die,which is why the bank valuation so low,profit so nice,but weak prices cause. However,if the ten years or so,the whole financial system or may have fluctuated slowly digest. Moreover,it is more likely,(first-tier cities) adjustment in 10%,20%,on the other sectors of economy structure transition to fill the economic gap. The root cause is,rely on real estate economic development road has cornered,invariable also variable.The market strategy has more to listen is pessimistic. But it often means that once the policy change,change. Now armed with cash,you can leisurely waiting,select; if holding,now is not a good time to give up. Hold on,there will be the candy.
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March 19th, 2012
Page first: slow down,but still good economyPage second: Chinese macroscopical economic policy should return to a more neutral postureRecently,high-level policy makers from around the world gathered in Washington,at the world bank and IMF annual meeting. In the developed countries and the weak economic data in recent months financial market filled with fear,can be understood,annual meeting atmosphere somewhat melancholy. It is encouraging,years will finally reaffirmed the hindered settling strong and sustainable growth disorders urgency and determination. The question now is to take action.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyDeveloped economy anabiosises lack of power,economic downside risk increase. What needs to be done? It is simple to support growth,debt reduction,to prevent further financial upheaval. At present,the policy space no doubt than in 2008 when the financial crisis struck,but there is still a solution. No one measure is simple,it requires political determination,but can be achieved. If the policies now execute,and consider the euro zone has not yet been fully exposed financial instability,IMF predicts this year and next year the world economy will grow 4%,slightly lower than the 5% increase in 2010. Slowed down,but still good economyFor China,what will this mean it,we will adopt the policy measures? Although China’s stock market has been bad,but it does not mean that Chinese economy is very pessimistic. IMF China Office update on the outlook for China’s economy. We think that China is steadily to achieve a soft landing. In the monetary stimulus exit,public expenditure scale gradually narrowed,as expected,Chinese economy is slowing down,but still with a healthy growth.At the same time,inflation while still in the top digit,but have peaked. Earlier from fruits,vegetables and grains inflationary pressures are eased,but the emergence of a new push factors (reflected in pork prices.). However,this kind of impetus is weakening,in August the inflation rate down to 6.2%,a rising commodity prices are starting to ease. Another positive sign is the government regulation of the real estate market success. Trading volume and price increases have slowed down,but the real estate investment is still rapid growth,thanks in part to the construction of affordable housing.Looking to the future,China will still maintain a healthy growth next year. Wages and the strong labor market will support the growth of domestic demand. That is to say,the huge export sector will undoubtedly be industrialized countries more subdued demand effect. Therefore,IMF 2012 growth forecast value from a few months before the 9.5% down to 9%. Although the slowdown,but China will continue to promote world economic growth,in world economy growth contributes 1 / 4. Barring further food supply shock,the inflation rate will fall to 4.5% in the end,by the end of 2012 to 3%.
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March 19th, 2012
Xinhuanet.com Washington in October 3 report (reporter Liu Lina) the United States Senate 3 programmed through “2011 currency supervision reform bill” project plan,the exchange rate and trade subsidies to bind,directed at China,make RMB appreciation. This is a serious interference of Sino-US economic and trade relations,but also to the recovery of the world economy is difficult increase in disorder.The United States Congress clamor and part the motion driven,its behind has many considerations. On the opportunity,the United States of AmericaMinistry of FinanceTo be in the middle of October submitted to Congress a semi-annual currency report major trading partners. On the eve of the motion of this drive,can give the Ministry of finance to the Chinese press,put on a “currency manipulator” label.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyMore striking is the motion of the political background. At present the United States from the presidential and parliamentary elections only more than 13 months,while the unemployment rate is high up to 9.1%,of people income falls,economic uncertainty,increasing discontent. Gallup’s poll,the American people for the support of the Congress rate fell to 13% in the history of the minimum. The United States politicians to create employment as,Chinese exchange rate card,will be introduced to domestic contradiction diversionary practices,in recent years has almost become political conventions.We can see that the United States,some members clamoring for the renminbi exchange rate and promote the motion,is more a political considerations,trying to put its domestic contradictions onto his country,no one about American economy main problem and the overall and long-term interests,nor about the recovery of the world economy overall situation. This is not just,also violated the international prevailing rules.The United States economy is current the biggest problem where? Be all in one story lies in the shortage of savings,the trade deficit and high unemployment rate,and the motion to solve these problems are useless. “Washington Post” 3 published editorial to point out,the currency bill will only run counter to one’s desire to do more harm than good,the United States of america. Many analysts think,the appreciation of the renminbi would end up pushing American inflation,making the already difficult situation of the large number of Americans face greater life stress.The United States of America many scholars and business people have a clear cognition. Washington think tank traditions foundation research fellow at the analysis of the past 20 years of economic data published on 3 Results: RMB appreciation not only will not reduce the unemployment in the United States,but is usually associated with the United States rising unemployment synchronization. The United States 51 business groups recently sent a letter Senate leaders say,even if the RMB appreciation,other low cost producer goods will fill China is in the United States market vacancy on the United States to increase employment,almost no help. China is the world’s second largest economies,are each other’s second largest trading partner,its economic and trade cooperation on major world economic relations and China-US economic and trade cooperation,mutual benefit and win-win in nature. The Sino-US trade current situation is the worldIndustryDivision of labor and structural adjustment result,United States and China goods trade deficit is in part from other Asian countries and regions of the trade diversion,US restrictions on high-tech products exports to China also is main reason. Therefore,on the Sino-US trade imbalance,make RMB appreciation is the wrong prescription,not only can not solve the problem,but will weaken and China work together to jointly promote the global economic recovery efforts.Current,world economy is in a complex,sensitive,changing times,to boost confidence in the market,the urgent need for a stable international monetary environment,a major economies to unity and cooperation,a total grams of the hard times of the positive atmosphere. At this moment,the United States Senate issued currency bill,the politicization of economic issues complicate,attempted to so-called “monetary imbalances” as an excuse to take protectionist measures,will hit confidence and boost confidence,damage stability rather than maintain stability to the world economy not only,chaos,and the jam,and may even result in China and the world do not want to see a trade war.In response,many public opinion expressed deep concern over the. The United States Senate procedure will be before the vote,”Wall Street daily (Blog,Micro-blogHe commented that “),such a move would only add to the United States as the trade protectionism supporters notoriety. The British “Financial Times” recently a commentary warned,the currency bill may be “currency war” into the new battlefield confused about the global trading system,people in the future should be against.
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March 19th, 2012
The international executive director and Zhang Huaqiao (data plan) This year,the Chinese government in the anti-inflation efforts attract worldwide attention. Only a very confident and execution of government can be in short-term inside do so firmly and thoroughly. However,in everybody cries “gas,gas”,perhaps,this victory was won.Saying this,I’m taking a big risk. First of all,I work in basic level,on the national situation master enough. Secondly,the currentMacro dataThe economy is still quite good. “”. Many people say,economy or overheating.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyMacroscopical economic policy is not scientific grasp,but a very profound art. Policy effect usually have time,and time is a number after all is not stable. But at home and abroad all kinds of uncertainties and unknowns will play a role. I like many peers,often make gestures,criticism of government policy is too loose,too tight,too early or too late. However,we stand to speak are not afraid of pain. You and I set before the decision on the position,we have the number of tricks?However,I still want to dare to talk about the views of. I think,in the respect of macroscopical adjusting control,the government has been quite successful. If I can speak the words,I think,the government now has three more pressing macroscopical economic policy to adjust: (1) in the capital market,open water,but raising the price of water,(2) reduction,(3) limit of local financing platform. Let me one one years;First,the government should consider in the relaxation of credit flow (lowering the depositReserve ratio,abandon the loan limit) at the same time,greatly improving the benchmark interest rate. Now enterprises (SOEs except) the biggest problem is not the interest rate,but the availability of capital. A healthy enterprise does not care about the high interest rates several points,and decline of enterprises feel interest-free loans could not bear (after all,the principal or need). As everyone knows,we have a large number of destroyed around the economic value of enterprise. The current interest rate policy incentives and low efficiency of the enterprises and local financing platform of capital shortage,deterioration,aggravate the financial corruption and unfair. Increase in the money supply at the same time,improve the bank’s benchmark interest rate,will contribute to the folk interest rate and loan sharking cooling.The government needs to do second things is the comprehensive tax cut. High tax rates encourage evasion,stifle economic,hinder entrepreneurship and employment. High rate actually causes the reduction of tax revenue (the reason of tax evasion and reduced economic activity). Various tax cuts often create corruption and collusion.In third,greatly limiting the function of local financing platform. Most of their activity is low in efficiency and destroy the economic value. Moreover,they pushed up the prices of the raw materials,and even the entire inflation,deterioration of the private enterprises and the small and medium-sized enterprise survival condition (for example,worsening the financing environment,destroy fair competition). Indeed,now the economy may still needs to be cooled,however,continues to drop in temperature should not be at the cost of small and medium-sized enterprises. Wenzhou and other areas of the private fund raising and problem of fully exposed two problems. One is Chinese deposit interest rate is too low,the two is the small and medium-sized enterprise is badly in need of money,and could not get support from bank.Please allow me to give you my opinion on the current economic situation.(1) the European debt crisis will reduce the global total demand.(2) the United States and Japan’s economy remains weak.(3) Chinese inflation pressure is still large,but,as long as the restraint of local financing platform activity,inflation pressure will be substantially eliminated,Chinese economy will greatly improve efficiency,fairness will improve.(4) the excessive use of depositReserveRate of increase,but improve the capital market degree of tension and interest rate,and the state-owend enterprise,local financing platform and have access to bank loans to people with no injuries,only small and medium-sized enterprises are badly hurt. At the same time,the depositor loses much.(5) if the current economic policy is not immediately adjust,the domestic stock market may continue to drop. Money is tight,will be hurt. From the current monetary and market interest rate,the domestic stock basically are too expensive.
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March 19th, 2012
For the current crisis of more general view include: recession,the bottom two Euro,disintegration,etc.,these viewpoints reflected only the European debt crisis of the surface,but does not touch the core operation mechanism of euro.Europe’s sovereign debt crisis Kuang Fu is designed for the use of 40 years of the international monetary system’s bad behavior for liquidation,to block the virus mechanisms of deep cycle; the need for crisis of punishment,to update or replacement credit mechanism; the need for innovative directions are encouraged,to create new industry platform for the realization of the new growth. This decision from the 2008 financial crisis,debt crisis at present mainly sets,as well as the follow-up of other crisis essentially neither recession,not only is the contraction,but the traditional international monetary system super repair,and to promote the new industrial revolution to realize transition. It will support the international monetary system reorganization,restructuring of international division of labor and the transfer of power.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storySpecifically,it is since August 15,1971 the establishment of credit monetary system drives the world dollar since the international economy,the first time on this system is correct in monetary management. Because of the international currency market transmission mechanism,tightening of traditional industry is comprehensive,at present no country or region can survive. Crunch risk is huge,the United States of America real estate will still faces grim situation,the United States bank,Wells Fargo and other large banks need to solve degradation,financing,restructuring,or even bankruptcy problems. Europe will face a debt crisis of banking of the impact of extension,the most dangerous is the EuropeanCentral bankWill fall from a lender of last resort,Euro qualifications to be perfect,the European Central Bank has theoretically disintegrate or potential bankruptcy. In the face of this crisis crunch is difficult,but the fall is the local system,is more important to block the virus credit expansion,can make major economies meet new innovation. If another massive government bailout plan,it will mean the world to enter the operation lever,the mechanism that cannot deny completely,the premise is to set up the lever and to leverage management cycle and strategic way,and should be made by the crisis countries consider the crisis trend reasonable arrangement.2008 crisis prompted the United States Treasury raised $6,this budget assistance if investment in new industry expansion can promote the United States has on the world the industrial revolution epitomized the throne; if the United States starts again a new massive bailout plan,I estimate the scale of national debt of the United States will be at least 3 trillion,even will increase by 6 trillion dollars or more,if so,it will modify the global evolution model,the United States will evolve into the American Empire,with the threat of war,rogue and solve the debt reduction,deadbeat is a realistic choice of the world,this is disadvantageous. It is based on this,I propose a selection of traditional industry and the implementation of the contraction of the new industrial revolution advocated. This claim,on the world’s ability to handle the crisis construction and transformation model is a better choice,it allows us to avoid the last century 30′s “the Great Depression” a dangerous situation.The traditional system of tightening means to promote new industrial expansion,the polymerization transition during the industrial revolution history has never had,also will bring up the administrative and market phase union to promote a new industrial revolution and technology expansion of the miracle. The United States has launched the first change,ObamaThe president announced in January 25,2011 the history of the first national clean energy route table,namely the United States “in 2035 for the United States prior to the 85% power supply from clean energy”. This move can effectively promote the United States gradually reduce the import of energy demand,sell on the international crude oil pricing power,can be expected the United States imports energy will be gradually lowered from 50% to 35%,cut is possible. The United States oil pricing power shift is dismantling dollar-denominated international pricing system is a key step,will also be correcting morbid international financial system of the United States Secret,this is against the U.S. dollar operation system is strategical adjust,it will push the United States go to the battle-front without any burden,in the new currency system for optimum location. In 2011 February the United States will be announced in five years construction of mobile 4GInternet,I think: including cloud computing,intelligent network,high density storage facilities,intelligent vehicle,flight generator,intelligent low carbon building,satellite broadband,artificial photosynthesis manufacturing fuel and will push the world from an agricultural society,industrial society transition to the intelligence community,we will be through the intelligent network constructed one with nature,the human society network parallel data incarnation,network world,interactive network,it can be counterproductive and service in nature and human society.Construction of intelligent community will address the nature and the human society a new high-end living space problems,it will be more than sixteenth Century big navigation times of the great geographical discovery. At present,the industrial revolution of the body will be over already had on the history of industrial revolution. I think China should become the revolutionary leader,history of China has no dominant world power transfer and industrial revolution experience,so we should span than Europe and the United States more high change threshold,this difficult challenges across,which means the Chinese industrial revolution drive volume than Europe and the United States more ambitious and innovation.Therefore,the world system conversion mode core forms have been identified,it is the industrial revolution and the changes of financial fix simultaneously,both reciprocal causation. The duo polymerization practice since 40 years since the largest volume of financial restraint,may also will be 100 years since the industrial revolution,effective financial system to promote tightening to high-end transformation of the industrial revolution. While at the same time,the new technology revolution will also absorb large-scale existing international monetary resources,the integration will promote world new monetary standard and industrial system revolution.For the industrial revolution,the world now has three main engine namely China,the United States and Europe that heads with Germany,other countries in the second tier. Europe and the United States technology system than the Chinese high-end production capacity than China,Europe and the United States advanced,cooperation between the two sides of the base of great.
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March 19th, 2012
I live in Zhejiang is a large province in economy,businessmen to profit is to get in by every opening,a new means to earn money is immigration,advertisements are sent to my mobile phone. Advertising is like this: “to buy $five hundred thousand of American national debt,can immigration.”It is one of the latest trends,understand human thought can be found,it is possible to. Because the United States government now requires a massive stimulus,sales of government bonds into a big task. At the same time,the United States Treasury bond credit rating drops,so the sales have little difficulty,for the United States,the Chinese government and people are the best sales targets,but now the Chinese government has full American Treasury bonds,so the folk have possible? So give an exchange,that is the immigration.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe emigration of this thing,had not the news. But the media exclaimed in the rich class immigration wave at the same time,but not to put a little more attention to these people after immigration trends,namely: they through immigration,and what was happening?My friend is the migration of people,but most of these people were still in the country. Reason is very simple,because the money is in the domestic,abroad,these investment immigrants did not know much English,and therefore not much competition ability,so it is not likely to make money. If it is not polite to speak,they have the ability to survive in foreign countries,I doubt it.This is not a weakness lends wings to rumours.,but has a factual basis. Once there was a big Hongkong company boss told me they want to develop outside the company,the company of the British boss asks an executive: “we are going to India or the mainland.” The executive said: “India has BP,while the mainland culture,Hongkong people understand some.”What do you mean? The executives say,in India in the same competition in the industry,with a strong opponent. And the competitors,the company may not have full assurance of success,but in the mainland,they have a good chance to win,but even more important,the mainland and unwritten rules,the people of Hongkong are generally understood,even if they do not understand,each of them has mainland relatives,to teach for a period of time,also the church the.This is I suspect that these emigrated wealthy survival ability is an important factor. As we know,the Kuomintang period many senior people finally have also chosen to immigration,but the end is almost all do that. This is because they have less ability to survive,while the Kuomintang regime collapse,put these people collusion rich path destroyed. So these people can sit and eat the mountain open space to live,the life is very sad.And then,even if we do not speak of the wealthy classes the immigrant people how many on the collusion between the government and the rich,at least they are a number of future fear people. Because in the future have fear,so the Western imagination is more beautiful. But I found,mostly middle-aged or immigrants,are still at home,because they are the methods to make money.This is really worrying migration. If we carefully review the whole migration process,it turns out that: these new immigrants through certain way,at home and abroad to make money,as home. In addition to the daily consumption,their children’s education,financial services,real estate acquisition turned to settle in the country. That is to say,the western countries through immigration policy,the people of the developed economies of desire,become a wealth transfer mechanism. Let these new immigrants from China everfount create wealth,and turn to his own country of immigrants.See immigration essence,countermeasure to also emerge as the times require. From the short term,as the development of the Chinese cannot avoid this immigration trends. The logic behind this chain is this: the national economy should grow,cannot avoid the wealth to a portion of a variety of advantages crowd; and has a wealth of people at the same time it has the right to freedom of choice,they will become all countries welcome object.But in the short term,as an administrator of the country,the government still has countermeasures can be applied: that is cut off or discrimination threshold elevation of nationality,do not have Chinese nationality people in domestic wealth of path. For example the Chinese nationality actor in the performance of domestic market to limited; some high profit industry enters a doorsill establishment of nationality,etc.. In giving the richest people freedom of choice at the same time,limiting them to give up the Chinese nationality after the creation of wealth right,avoid them to become rich in China atm.But in the long run,to reduce immigration wave range,it will improve the welfare of people to solve. It is undeniable,affluent immigrants,largely because China did not provide enough benefits caused by. For example,there are quite a number of immigrants,is because of the need to have more children,there is one people is because foreign better education. Therefore fundamentally to have knowledge and capability advantage of those with reflux,then need to make China also become a desirable state. The state now,big city has a wealth of opportunities but air pollution,traffic jams; small city employment opportunity,is in poor condition; backward education,welfare is close to zero,entrepreneurs worried about getting audited,white-collar workers with hand to mouth stopped,China is unable to attract talents.This is why the United States to China,but also can pinch the top reason.
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March 19th, 2012
Despite signs of external funds into the stock market,the market may rebound impulse,therefore,but frequent massive financing,also can the market back to winter.China Hydropower(601669,SharesIn the inquiry report) on strange and tough tone let doubt money people away,but now high of 14000000000 yuan of the amount of financing will allow the market to doubt their intentions. But investors to vote with their feet high,up to 9.7% online success rate hit a new high of 3 months,A shares is not arbitrary.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyIn Chinese hydropower suction gold 14000000000 yuan,there are several very large “vampire” to A shares. Shaanxi coal industry to raise 17251000000 yuan,in the settlement of shares will be 20000000000 Yuan to plan the amount of financing become the year’s biggest IPO project. The two issue listing will be in October two stage A shares market liquidity brings bigger impact.A number of institutional investors author contact points out,in the monetary policy has not been the case of relaxation,one class market accelerated expansion will inhibit the two secondary market investor enthusiasm to do more,it can not see the hope.Indeed,A shares are facing the situation both at home and abroad is very sinister,complexity or even exceed the 2008 financial crisis,the situation can be described as “startling step by step evolution”. Such as Europe and the United States economic debt crisis mire,euro will collapse the unknown,China will likely fall into the inflation in higher levels of distress,but also slow down economic growth.The “boiling frog” situation,the stock market is more to worry about their future. As with a number of senior investment professionals pointed out,soft landing should not have the question,but because there is no hard landing to violent,it also makes the economic stimulus policy,monetary policy is not to expect.On the Chinese stock market,the stock market is the core factor to stimulate only two,performance and liquidity. UBS Securities wealth management research department chief investment strategist for Chinese high’s prediction,the future performance of listed companies may be experiencing a forecast,this means that the A shares underestimated the value may be only. “”.Ignoring the A shares market current situation,still maintain high frequency,large scale financing has become the last straw breaks the stock market. Statistic shows,in August 23 IPO,raising a total of $27654000000,compared to 12276000000 yuan in July increased dramatically,and in September in Shanghai and Shenzhen two 21 IPO,raising the amount of 28931000000 yuan,to innovate again tall.But the A shares are not listed companies transfusion library,unrestrained,high P / E ratio of IPO,has caused the market revulsion. China Water Conservancy and the success rate of innovation,in September the stock to break number more than half,is a bear market investors to vote with their feet and performance. If not changed,will also have more of this kind of event.If regulators do not attempt to save the city,to do everything in one’s power within the market transfer positive information,then the market will also pass through the spontaneous regulation of curbing the negative factors,and the relationship between supply and demand to be balanced fund.
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March 19th, 2012
Although the subway collision events,signals to Casco Signal Company Limited issued a statement saying that the accident has nothing to do with them. But the signal system has become the focus of public attention. Because the signal system of core technology in foreign hands,china subway to heteronomy.Our self-developed centralized dispatching,dispatching supervision device is the use of standard software and hardware products and the famous operating system based on the modular components,but the lack of large area uses centralized traffic way universal experience,and foreign high speed railway dispatching center rely entirely on computer through a network of uninterrupted command line train operation way and there is a great gap.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyIn the signal repair,the repair of railway signal system on the whole railway administration,branch,paragraph three layer management pattern,to distribution in along the paragraph mainly bear the daily maintenance work,body small slants much,and developed centralized maintenance,centralized management,unified command system,existing conditions,system,the respect such as idea of gap. Because of this,our country railroad in great speed,domestic signal system and signal system in developed countries to cooperate. Metro signal system is more dependent on foreign technology.Taking Beijing as an example,the 2 line and the airport line,the introduction of France Alston technology; line 4 the introduction of French Alcatel technical; line 10,the introduction of Germany’s Siemens technology. Since 2004,the whole nation uses communication based train control system,all from France and Germany imports. Cost per kilometer of about 10000000 ~ 13000000 yuan. As a result,China Metro Life Master in foreign enterprises.A signal equipment manufacturers and technical personnel tells “China runs a newspaper (Blog,Micro-blog”Reporter for Metro in China),the automatic block signal system basically belongs to the technical introduction. The foreign technology and domestic actual condition whether can match each other,take up to half a year trial operation experiment,to see the signal system is stable,can allow traffic manned,and actual condition is whetherThe Ministry of RailwaysThe door or the subway company is not running such a long time.The technical staff pointed out,in Metro signal system,Metro signal system consists of a central automatic monitoring system (ATS system),the interlock system and automatic train protection system / automatic driving system (ATP / ATO). The ATS system is to realize the automatic train monitoring intelligent scheduling command system,scheduling personnel through the system can real-time monitor the entire train dynamics,in time of need to implement the mobilization command; interlock system through train position detection equipment as well as the position of the switch control device to control the signal display,through strict logic control,to realize the train between the safe separation; automatic driving system is to ensure train automatic protection system under the protection of the system,according to the preset speed curve automatic driving the train reaches a predetermined position.In actual operation,train position detection equipment can real-time detect train position,and through the vehicle information communication between devices,will train position information is reported to the ATP system. ATP system according to the current location of trains for the following train is allowed to run the calculated maximum object distance,the fastest speed,once found before the car parked in the tunnel,the ATP system will be given after a gradual deceleration command vehicle and the vehicle in front of a safe distance from the outside parking,thus avoiding the train collision.That is to say,in Metro signal system,train position detection equipment is to ensure the safety of train running is important one annulus,only for it to accurately detect the position of moving train,can let the train ATP system timely instructions. And to undertake this important link device called a sensor,at present in our country,although in the signal transmitting,receiving device technology has been greatly improved,but the sensor technology of this one core link is still unable to break the technical bottleneck,this also is our country must take and law,Germany and other signal system advanced technology enterprises to cooperate the main reason.
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March 19th, 2012
Page first: RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has gained nearly 30%.Page second: early American hedge fund bearish RMB Yi Xianrong (data plan)Although the September 28th yuan rate exceeded 6.37 yuan mark,1 U.S. dollar against 6.3623 yuan,representing a 137 points,a record in 2005 July a new high since the exchange reform,but “RMB devaluation” of speech still flood the market. Also,in early May of this year,there is the United States of America hedge funds think,Chinese real estate bubble will burst,devaluation of the RMB,the yuan to OTC options bearish.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyIn this regard,I have several questions worthy of consideration. One is in the short term will the renminbi devaluation? If the devaluation of the renminbi,its reason is what? If the renminbi appreciation of two is by turning devalued,it to the domestic and foreign market will be what kind of impact,how should we respond? The three is that if the RMB will not be devalued,why the market bearish RMB speech so popular?From 2005 since the reform of RMB exchange rate system,the renminbi to us dollar exchange rate has risen by nearly 30%,but the RMB for other than the dollar rate is not too big. For example,in recent years the RMB appreciation is less than 5% on the Canadian dollar. Therefore,if the strength of the dollar,then the renminbi may appear the market to go weak. Can say,this several day yuanSpot goodsMarket and RMB non-deliverable forward exchange rate low are possible with a stronger dollar related. If the dollar continues to be strong,the yuan against the dollar is also normal.
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March 19th, 2012
Gui HaomingAlong with some Wenzhou companies because of capital catenary to rupture and “run away” news spread far and wide,where the prevailing usury insider also gradually opened a angle. Originally,those who abandon the struggle for many years by the founder of enterprises and “run away” boss,mostly borrowed usury. In a sense,it is usury brought about by the debt and interest,become overwhelmed Wenzhou enterprises the main funding chain of the last straw,and it seriously affected the stock market investor psychology,because everybody to add more to the smooth operation of the economy concerns.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyAccording to China’s regulations,folk loan interest rate cap,no more than the bank loan interest rate 4 times. To the current level of interest and plan,generally less than 30%. But now,some local usury,unexpectedly high interest rate amounts to 80% above,some even as high as 180%. To the general enterprise’s normal operating profit,which is likely to pay such a high cost of capital? But why usury will in a place like Wenzhou so prevalent,and many of the local people are involved? It is worth thinking deeply. In general,the enterprise is unlikely to exceed gross margin rate to finance several times,because it is Dutch act. However,the objective is also to do some enterprises in the production process,appeared the liquidity shortage problem,it can be through bank loans to solve,but because the monetary tightening and other reasons,not through the conventional ways to borrow money,in order to make the production continues,not be on time delivery for breach of contract behavior,would not have been left to loan sharks. Here,those high interest rates are actually annual calculation,generally only a short existence. But eventually there will be some enterprises,because of various reasons,or for product production to come out later to receive payment,or is the product has not been produced and capital chain is first off,seeing the usury has simply not on,finally only “run away”. The state media have reported a lot,actually how many “run away” the owners of private enterprises,there is a lack of reliable statistics. But anyway,folk usurious harm has not estimated,but real.Blame money lenders in violation of state regulations,to take usury is very easy,but at present only in the moral condemnation and can not fundamentally solve the problem. If people are willing to lend on usury,and are willing to accept,it shows that the market exists some basis for the survival of usury. As we all know,in the current financial system in our country,and did not realize the marketization of interest rate,at the same time in bank credit management,also has not been fully respected the principle of market economy,it will exist when the macro-control,retrenchment,there must be a part of the enterprise financing difficulties due to various reasons which appear problem. It also provides a hotbed for usury.In addition,it is undeniable,in some places because of the presence of corruption,some banks refused to provide the normal loan,and will fund through other pathways directly or indirectly on the usury individuals or institutions,first set hire later rent-seeking. Although this situation is individual,but the influence is very abominable. It not only disturbs the normal financial order,is killed business industrial confidence. Now,many investors are worried about the phenomenon of usury,and it also serves as a basis for bearish stock market. In fact,relative to the entire national economy,usury is not the mainstream,even in the Wenzhou area,the real loan sharks to engage in production,and even cause not usury boss is forced to “run away” phenomenon,is still a few. But the problem is,which they saw as a result of system reform is not thorough and the disadvantages of this abuse,and at a certain point,the entity economy has great destructive power. Obviously,this situation does not change,people on the economy running smoothly to enhance confidence,the stock market will not be optimistic nature.Some argue that,in order to avoid the phenomenon of usury,respond to the usurer restrain by law,and do not say whether it isLawOn the basis of,in fact can not fundamentally solve the problem. High interest rate is the essence of capital supply and demand imbalance,settlement way is to realize the marketization of interest rate,allowing the market to regulate the supply and demand. When according to market rule for allocation of funds to normal advance,it can not only eliminate usury,and on to a fundamental solution,also can promote the transformation and upgrading of enterprises,but also resolve the investors for the financial order normal enough doubts,and thus for the stock market orderly operation to add vigor.From this point of view,usurious phenomenon is to force the marketization of interest rate.(the writer of Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute Market Research Director)
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March 19th, 2012
Compare prices,its significance lies not only in the analysis of the price itself,lies in the price under the people’s livelihood experience perspective. This topic is able to cause such a strong concern rooted in people,especially some large city residents on the excessive pressure sensitiveRecently,the prices of contrastive topic attracted wide attention from the society. Some media Beijing and New York price situation undertook combing,found that both have the discretion. For example,some foreign ordinary consumer goods,in the price of Beijing expensive than in New York,the Chinese people are regarded as “luxury” part of the commodity price is too high; however,the city public transport as well as artificial,intellectual property rights of products and services,New York is significantly more expensive than Beijing lot.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyAt first glance,the people in Beijing or New York,all good,also each have their own shortcomings. But,compare prices,its significance lies not only in the analysis of the price itself,lies in the price under the people’s livelihood experience perspective. If you put aside the income factors simply compare prices,may not be able to see the essence of the problem.Catering for the example. The netizen says,in Beijing have a foreign fast food will spend 30 yuan,in New York will spend around $5 seems to be not much difference between the two. But if the contrast of income,the conclusion would be different. According to statistics,in 2010 the United States per capita income is about $50000,or about 320000 yuan; Beijing 2010,town dweller year average per capita income is 29073 yuan,two person differ nearly 10 times. Income gap is so large,the price is so close,the cost of living is high or low obviously.Someone says,this contrast is not scientific,such as the selection of sample quality,ordering quantity is not the same. These may be true,it is very difficult to complete,accurate and price comparison. But ought to see,this one topic can cause such a strong concern rooted in people,especially some large city residents on the excessive pressure sensitive. People focus and price contrast,is not precise judgment in all types of price difference,also is not to foreign quality of life line,but find an expression of their pressure in real life issues.Look at the income. Reportedly,the developed countries’ wages in national income in the proportion of 55% or more generally,which means that its national wealth in the initial distribution is mostly workers all; and labor’s reward in China accounted for more than 90 years since the last century has been a downward trend,it is less than 40%. Working hard to share more wealth,directly reflects the wage growth is slow,this lets the consumer in the face of high prices,increasing lack of confidence.Income growth is slow,but did not reduce the burden,be the first to bear the brunt is to buy a house. A friend tells the author,when 2002,can look for a monthly salary of 4000 yuan of the work to be very satisfied,because when you save money to buy a house for several years,certainly not a problem; but now,for a monthly salary of over million of work,don’t expect before the age of 40 to buy new houses. If combined with a “short leg” of social security and high education fees,medical expenses,one does not work hard it is difficult to maintain family functioning. If things go on like this,what about the quality of life?Price comparison is the comparison of the figure,is a reflection of people’s livelihood. Perhaps,only when people’s income can maintain reasonable growth,burden is relatively reduced,on the quality of life satisfaction,price comparison will become a more relaxed topic.
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March 19th, 2012
TanThe European credit markets to freeze.Although the extent of the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 than when a light,is the typical symptom of the times of financial crisis,in 2008 the crisis deepened further,in Europe as the origin,spread to the whole world.Money began to withdraw from the European bank. According to reports,because of fears that European governments may not be able to save the banks to the debt crisis,the Bank of Lloyd was from a number of peripheral eurozone countries to withdraw the deposit. At the same time,Reuters reported,Siemens will deposit of 500000000 dollars from the bank rolls out of sg;Bank of China(601988,Shares) has been discontinued and France’s three largest bank foreign exchange trading.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyPredicted capacity for self-realization. When investors panic,capital flight out of European banks,meant that the European banking capital,lower financing cost more,indebted rate actually increase,eventually will enable the European Banking real collapse.The United States credit institutions repeatedly by European financial institutions credit rating. Following the September 20th lowered Italy’s sovereign credit rating,rating agency Standard & Poor’s 21 to 7 lower Italy bank long-term rating,a negative outlook. At the same time,it will be another 8 Italy bank’s rating outlook from stable lowering to negative. Prior to this,in September 14th,the United States credit rating agencies lowered Moodie investor services in FranceIndustrial Bank(601166,Shares) and agricultural credit bank credit rating. This led to the French and Italy related to the bank stock prices.From Greek and other places to start a debt crisis spread to the core of the euro zone countries.According to the International Monetary Fund report published in September 21st,the European debt crisis,the European banking risk exposures amounting to 300000000000 euros. While the native European stress test exposure only 2500000000 euro,two data is changed,the results of the European stress tests by the market at.Italy,France,German banks could not escape the fate of high loss. According to a September report,Italy United Bank of St Paul,Italy Yu letter bank and Italy BMPS bank holds a total of 138200000000 Euro sovereign debt,France holds the Italy bond up to three banks for France in Paris,France industrial and agricultural credit,respectively hold 24800000000 euros,10800000000 euros and 2700000000 euros. While Germany holds more Italy Treasury bank deutsche bank and commercial banks in Germany,respectively hold 7100000000 euros and 10100000000 euros. According to the bank for International Settlements (BIS) in September of this year’s quarterly data,in addition to Italy,France and Germany currently holds the most Italy government bonds,$105000000000 and $50980000000 respectively. Not only that,the bank for International Settlements data also shows that hold Greek debt,as of the end of year 6,German banks hold a total of $22650000000 of Greek government bonds,is apart from the Greek domestic banks and second held by the country,ranking third in the French bank,the amount amounts to 14960000000 dollar. Once the country such as Italy defaults,France,Germany and other countries of the financial institutions could not escape the fate of default. Domino in the first block of Italy.European banks are not to be trusted,unable to obtain the interbank lending,only to EuropeCentral bankLoan. On September 21st,the European Central Bank in its website released data show,the central bank to bank provides for a period of one week for $500000000 in emergency loans.Credit freeze,Greece and other countries financing cost reaching record highs,whether financial or corporate debt issuance cost to rise considerably,to unsustainable levels,according to the country’s wealth growth rate,in order to present the borrowing costs equal to declared due and breach of contract.Another Domino collapsed chain through conduction to the global investment institutions. In Europe the loss of investors to sell better asset losses,leading to other capital and money markets fell,such as gold,crude oil prices fall.In a word,as investors to panic,global financial markets once again in the frozen state: bank cash not willing to lend,investors are not willing to invest with cash in hand; credit risk,global actual lending rates rose sharply,Federal Reserve,the European Central Bank even execute quantify loose monetary policy,can stimulate the global credit market active.Following the United States after the second round of financial storm is coming. It is to see a huge risk,global once again joined hands to rescue the market. The morning of September 23rd Beijing time,G20 issued the communique announced that maintain the stability of the banking system,to ensure that banks have enough capital; central banks will be ready,when the need to provide liquidity to banks,will ensure that banks can obtain funds to deal with the current risk.Can be expected,a new round of quantitative easing or bright or dark may be introduced,the international monetary fund reduces to the countries such as Greece’s rescue threshold,the stability of the European fund scale may further expand. In 2008,after the outbreak of the crisis means to rescue the market.The market will therefore short-lived rebound. But in the long term,monetary rescue impossible to make economy,let the market out of the concussion,walk out of trough.
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March 19th, 2012
In September 22nd,it issued a group of Zhejiang State Taxation Bureau “Guorui” ribbon charm photographs,one of them a berth in the shore yacht. Netizens questioned expensive yachts will be used in any place. In September 24th,the local tax bureau office responded by saying the yacht from Chunan County State Taxation Bureau for tax collection and management work on the island,and that the yacht contract price 2710000 yuan.Open yacht to collect taxes,the total is the feeling of trance,that call one. All public sector must have a serious ethical and identity,such as the end of Su,justice,efficient,saving,steady,humility and so on. If this identity ethics,IRS yacht,it would be too extravagant,less waste,too provocative,get. With less money never mind,the mistake is inTaxOffice open it should not drive vehicles.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storySpeak the Local Taxation Bureau entirely unclear,not understanding build the yacht improper,I am afraid it is difficult to make people believe. Don’t they know,the yacht cost 2710000 yuan,the income for many years the tax to be back? What’s more,really only 2710000 yuan,is still the local State Taxation Bureau’s side of the story. If only for the work,regular ship does not assume the task?Therefore,the yacht tasks has been far beyond the “work” category,it may have other more important things. The yacht will become the Zhejiang Provincial State Taxation Bureau leader to go down Qiandao Lake private yacht? Will become the “official reception” my secrets? It can be applied to business operation? And so on possibilities,you may wish to imagine.One thing,as long as people left enough space of imagination and measure space,that it is not normal. Therefore,bureau of tax of Zhejiang province state of crisis public relations the best professional and sincere enough,to build the yacht’s legitimacy was more convincing proof. We also hope that the relevant departments involved in the investigation of the matter,the tax department,check whether there is extravagant,jobbery behavior,to tighten their belts tax-payers a be perfectly logical and reasonable explanation. Zhang Ruoyu (Hunan teacher)
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March 19th, 2012
At present,Chinese financial industry from the risk from global economy “double dip recession” and the international financial turmoil or crisis the influence of evolution,but also directly from the relevant domestic factors in brewing.Therefore,to build China’s “financial” the Great Wall “,we need to further improve and perfect the modern Chinese financial system,sound and play the function of the financial market,to create an internationally competitive multinational financial services group,to further promote and improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,strengthen the central bank’s authority and independence of China’s monetary policy,the country is completely controllable under the premise of promoting the Renminbi capital project convertibility process,scientific management and efficient use of the country’s foreign exchange reserves.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyIn this “an eventful year”,global financial markets with this cool heat. Global stock market tumbled back reflected in a global economy is a “double dip recession” evolution trend. To counter the global economy “double dip recession” to China brought bad influence and financial risk,China must accelerate build be secure against assault “financial” the Great Wall “,enhance the comprehensive ability of prevention of international financial risk.Global stock market tumbled refractionThe global economy “double dip recession” trendFrom September 19th to 23 week of trading,global stock market value has shrunk by 3.4 trillion US dollars,and the global stock market into the bear market.Global stock and commodity prices fell sharply,a time reminiscent of 2008 September Wall Street caused by the international financial crisis,the stock plummeted more than 3% consecutive days. The property market “crash”,from historical comparison,can be incorporated into severe financial turmoil in the category,perhaps this is 2008 since international financial crisis a deepening or evolution of specific performance.As the global economy trend “vane” global stock and commodity price index why prices?It seemed only because two is not directly related to the factors: one is fed 21 launch as scheduled “distort” or “throwing short long” operation,selling a total of $400000000000 in short-term debt and buy the same magnitude of long-term government bonds,by depressing the level of interest rates to stimulate economic growth. The previous market expectations the Federal Reserve will launch the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy (QE3),are going to launch massive liquidity from. The Fed move against “expectations”,the stock market is not on the uplink channel,but into the down ramp.Two is the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest “global financial stability report called the” European debt crisis,sovereign,the European banking risk exposure will reach 300000000000 euros,the risk is on the rise. IMF emphasizes,eurozone sovereign debt crisis has spread to the banking system,push the high credit and market risk. The report points out,the euro zone government issued 6.5 trillion Euro sovereign debt,estimated half of the credit risk,sovereign debt crisis conduction process is Greek to Ireland and Portugal,and then to Spain,Belgium and Italy. The IMF report instantly reminded investors of European debt crisis deepens,triggered the stock lots selling.Global stock and commodity price index fell behind the refraction of synchronization,a substantial trend,that the global economy is a “double dip recession” in the process,thus exacerbating the worries,many investors began to lose confidence.The Fed’s statement did not conceal this: “the United States economy faces huge risk”,and the “employment market recovery speed will be very slow”.Beijing time on September 23rd morning,former chairman of the Federal ReserveGreenspanIn Washington told the media that the American economy,the prospects of the already uncertain,if the European sovereign debt crisis is resolved,the United States economy is likely to decline. He explained the impact is not directly from the European sovereign debt,but because the United States bank holds a large number of European trade securities.For the global economy is a “double dip recession”,many domestic and foreign a person with breadth of vision of this judgment.International Investment great masterRodgers22 days to express,the global economy is in a return to recession mark,and the recession than in 2008 that more bad. He said in an interview: “to solve the problem of excessive liabilities and expenses by more liabilities and expenses,it is inconceivable.”The State Council Development Research Center,deputy director of the Institute of FinanceBa Shusong22 days to express,the current global economy is moving toward the “bottom two”,the “bottom” of the amplitude or relatively shallow,but last longer,may be referred to as a moderate “bottom two”.The related statistical data has outlined the American and European economies to “double dip recession” trajectory. So far the United States unemployment rate has 5 consecutive months of high reaches above 9%,the EU countries economic growth rate glides continuously.”Doctor Doom”,New York University,SternSchool of businessProfessor Nouri El Ruby September 20th commented that,recent economic data show that,in most developed economies are to return to recession and financial market,the pressure also reached the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 since the most severe level. Now there is a more serious economic crisis,financial risk is very high,a crisis occurs only in the private sector,and this also includes close to the loss of solvency of sovereign state. He warns: “the risk is not only the front of moderate” double dip recession “,but a severe atrophy,may evolve into” the Great Depression II “,especially if the European debt crisis out of control,leading to a global financial meltdown.”Asset management company chairman Jim – O’neal also said a few days ago,if the eurozone sovereign debt crisis escalated and spread to the United States banking,is the global financial system will be faced with again in 2008 crisis.The global economy “double dip recession”Will bring China financial riskIn the economic and financial globalization today,Chinese economy may be affected by the global economy “double dip recession” process,Chinese financial market may be affected by the global financial turmoil and crisis. To this,we should have sober knowledge.As of September 22nd closing,the Hang Seng Index closed at 17911.95 points,or 4.85%,in 2009 a new low since July. In this context,4 state-owned holding listed bank shares also hit a year low collective. Among them,the line fell to an intraday low of HK $4.11,down more than 8%; the Bank fell more than 8%; the decline of 5.72%; Bank of China fell 6.79%. Recently,the European stock market crash,many US and European investment mechanism to cope with the liquidity crisis,in succession from incenseHong Kong stocksCity delivery cash,which Hongkong’s Hang Seng Index fell below 18000 points again,now. A lot of H shares than their A stock is cheap,and as AH stock index rebounded to nearly 2 years to a new high of 124.87 points,all current bank H shares than the A shares discount,the average discount rate is close to 18%.Historically,China’s A share market in most of the cases by the international stock markets including Europe,Hongkong stock market effect,following its decline,not out of the independent market. Statistic shows,to September 15th closing price as the benchmark calculations,the Shanghai and Shenzhen two city A the total market value of 24.4 yuan,excluding this year listed shares contribution value,A total stock market value dropped to 23.3 yuan,representing at the end of 26.3 trillion yuan has high amount amounts to 3 yuan.In 2008 September outbreak of the international financial crisis,the Chinese economy was once in a month of GDP growth rate dropped to 6.8%,with import and export trade as the main support of our country coastal economy province presents export orders suddenly dropped or lost,a large number of export trade and processing enterprises closed,a large number of migrant workers unemployment. In Europe and the United States as the main body of the global economy “double dip recession”,although its extent may not “a” of the recession as severe,but the Chinese import and export trade and processing trade enterprises,the small and medium-sized enterprise the respect such as obtain employment effect is objective existence.In recent years,Chinese enterprises andBank of China(601988,Shares) mechanism has been abroad,from already appeared some indications,with Europe and the United States economy “double dip recession” or “bottom two” evolution process,these enterprises and in the banking business,assets,profits have begun their different influence.As the European sovereign debt crisis: evolution and long,American debt woes deepen and solve the difficulty is increased ceaselessly,and the financial market turmoil will aggravate even the outbreak of a new round of international financial crisis,which will give Chinese investment in Europe and the United States and other areas of foreign exchange reserves and other financial assets to bring new and greater financial risk.At present,Chinese financial industry from the risk from global economy “double dip recession” and the international financial turmoil or crisis the influence of evolution,but also directly from the relevant domestic factors in brewing.According to the China Orient Asset Management Corporation recently released “2011 China: bad financial assets market survey report” shows,most respondents think that commercial banks non-performing loans in 2013 or later concentrated outbreak,local government financing platform of non-performing loan rate may reach 15%,non-performing loans may exceed 1 yuan. InIndustryStructural adjustment,iron and steel,new energy and other industries to become the highest credit risk the possibility of a larger,non-performing loan rate could reach 15.27%; high-speed rail construction loan rate may be up to 11.65%,including high-speed rail construction and operation of the credit risk of the highest possible.In the current European sovereign debt crisis,the United States debt predicament,the world economy into “double dip recession” crossing the complex international situation,China should not only control and prevention of this kind of international uncertainty has the potential to bring financial risks,but also to focus control,guard against and defuse financial risks such as domestic,including local debt,local loan financing platform,the real estate market bubble,high-speed rail construction,the new financial institutions,city commercial banks and credit cooperatives and other institutions risk.Build a China “financial the Great Wall”Have brook no delayIn order to reduce and prevent the global economy “double dip recession” process and its accompanying the global financial market turmoil and the potential financial crisis on China’s financial security and stability,we must build strong internally and externally,accelerate China “financial” the Great Wall “,is rapidly increasing Chinese economy and financial prevention of International financial risk.In 2008 the outbreak of the international financial crisis,China has great financial asset risk “open” exposed on the outside? Has attracted a lot of attention.The evening of August 5th,the S & P will be the United States long-term sovereign credit rating from AAA down to AA +,maintain the rating outlook to negative. The Chinese holdings of American bonds risk increase. The evening of September 23rd,the Fed “reverse operation after a period of 30 years,” the United States of America bond yields fell 20 basis points,to 2.80%; and a period of 10 years after the United States Treasury yields fell 14 basis points,to 1.72%,and reached 1.6961%,a record since 1953 the lowest level. Credit Suisse Group Interest strategy department forecast,a period of 10 years the United States Treasury yields may be before the end of the year fell to 1.60%,less than previously expected 1.75%; a period of 30 years the United States Treasury yields could fall to 2.50%,less than previously expected 3.30%. Therefore,China holds the United States Treasury yield levels will drop.Since 2011,for the management of inflation,ChinaCentral bankHas 6 times to raise the depositReserve ratio,2 times to raise the benchmark interest rate,so that the tightening of monetary credit. But the CPI continuous several months were above 6% platform. Financial expert analysis,these two years,China’s central bank monetary policy effect of the international financial market uncertainty factors,such as a large number of international “hot money” through various means “piping” in mainland china. In the national implementation of tight policy of estate adjusting control of the situation,some real estate developers from domestic commercial banks can not obtain the loan or the credit is very limited,but from an overseas bank or consortium but have a large number of financing. The offset portion of the domestic real estate regulation effect,make domestic credit tightening effect sells at a discount greatly.Therefore,to build China’s “financial” the Great Wall “,we need to further improve and perfect the modern Chinese financial system,sound and play the function of the financial market,to create an internationally competitive multinational financial services group,to further promote and improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,strengthen the central bank’s authority and independence of China’s monetary policy,the country is completely controllable under the premise of promoting the Renminbi capital project convertibility process,scientific management and efficient use of the country’s foreign exchange reserves.In 2007 the United States occurred after the subprime crisis,Chinese banking industry had been affected. At present the European debt crisis aggravating circumstances,do not rule out some Chinese-funded banks will be different degrees by the impact,its holdings of euro bond will appear loss.Build a China “financial” the Great Wall “,Chinese banking industry to further enhance the comprehensive management strength and improvement of the domestic and international risk ability,further perfect Chinese insurance system and enhancement of insurance solvency,build with large international investment bank of China investment banking competition.Strong Chinese “financial” the Great Wall “,is the guarantee of Chinese financial system and financial market is stable and healthy operation of the long-term safety,strong barrier,but also the maintenance of China’s long-term economic security,stability and rapid development of the security firm.Build a China “financial” the Great Wall “and China strengthen the world coordination action,actively involved in the international financial crisis rescue operations are not contradictory. In fact,China is “G20″ and the national important participating countries,also to the IMF increase share capital,to international financial stability and global economic recovery has made an important contribution to. China to build financial “the Great Wall”,strengthen their guard against and defuse domestic and international financial risk comprehensive ability,will no doubt as the world to make new and greater contributions.
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March 19th, 2012
Page first: “eleven” long housing downturn trend changePage second: existing inventory to the time to be more than 2 yearsPage third: slow-moving house extended to inventory time incrementPage fourth: into the secondary housing supply will be divided to grab the marketPage fifth: inflation as prices decline resistance [review: concomitant inventory accumulates more more,around the market will also have a new project,new site launch market,which can be used for new housing sales... In this paper,the content of the personal point of view,for reference purposes only,does not constitute any person or any organization,the enterprise to make any decision,nor does it constitute the mentioned individual or institution evaluation. ]Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyAlthough it is always some people do not believe,do not want to,but the fact is so: “credit limit”,”restriction” and other regulatory policy,has pushed many speculative and investment demand,home of demand tend to stay on the sidelines and abandon the purchase,insufficient effective demand,city situation remains in the doldrums,turnover continued fell sharply,in some regions of stage,structural oversupply has become an indisputable fact,some areas of the house is also true of decline,the real estate market has entered a downward correction adjustment cycle. ”Eleven” long housing downturn trend changeCan’t deny,since this year,in “credit limit”,”restriction” and other real estate regulation policy and financial regulation under the comprehensive,not just the first-tier cities,which is almost a national market,real estate transactions has been in continuous decline.Just after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday,the real estate market and did not greet festivals lively,but rather than before the cold more deserted,many city turnover generally appeared bigger drop substantially,but also strengthen the retail prices,the market adjusted downward trend. The present market situation,means that the real estate market is expected to continue downward.Can say,the traditional “gold Jiuyin ten”,this year a start,their dreams have been shattered,has been bleak market reality smash. In the “Kim Gu” dream dashed after,market tend to think of the next “silver ten” will be how? The sight of the “eleven” holiday market?In fact,the long real estate regulation has been the start,now do not see signs of loosening regulation policy,prices downward,the trend has taken shape,the market has gradually formed a relatively large drop in house prices will have a consensus,especially consumers has been gradually accepted by residents will have a relatively large margin is expected to decline,the real estate market has entered a period of adjustment.In the early period of adjustment,the high prices price under the 6985 price,may not be able to stimulate the demand of buyer,attract buyers to purchase,consumers may choose to wait and see and abandon the purchase.At present,although some projects have begun limited promotional the 6985 price,but not in the majority of consumer recognition range from consumer psychological expectations,the majority still differ very far,accordingly,the majority of consumers continue to wait and see and even abandon buy.Without that,in recent years,the real estate market fever,rapid increase of housing sales,much ahead of overdraft market demand. Now,in the policy adjusting control,investment and speculative demand basically out of the market,home of demand insufficient effective demand,are part of the purchase of owner-occupied demand consumers continue to wait and see and even abandon buy,this kind of mood or will also spread,will undoubtedly make the deserted market one disaster after another.Based on the current real estate regulation situation,the real estate market as a whole atmosphere and the overall market trend,indications,such as no accident,then for a period of time,including the October,or real estate market will continue to slump,deal or will continue to light.That is to say,”Kim Gu”,the next “silver ten” or will fail. The upcoming “eleven” long,the real estate market downturn trend change,or will usher in the history the most desolate “eleven” golden week,deal or also continues to drop considerably. To make a long story short,deserted,or will become the “eleven” long and even the entire real estate market in October summary word.The city of potential development results will be,buyers and sellers market position relationship will change,namely the market to a buyer’s market changes. In the past years,is rare.
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March 19th, 2012
Newspaper commentator Liu KeThe capital is not early,but recently the surprise is,if capital is from the market in full retreat,stock market,commodity spared. Even regarded as the most precious metal hedge function,also fell in a complete mess,this in the world are facing new quantitative easing situation,strange.First,we can have a look by the debt and debt directly influences the market is a kind of misery. The United States of America Dow Jones in May of this year is still the basic recovered since the financial crisis decline and dance for joy,but from the beginning of July,a series of combat ensued,the index from 12800 points around the fell to the current 10700,two months time decreases high amounts to 17%; Europe is more follow in sb.’s footsteps,itself mired in debt crisis desperately struggle,but also catch up withThe debt crisisExpand,FTSE,Germany’s DAX index from the beginning of 8 are cliff falls,is a reproduction of the trend of financial crisis. From the commodity of the situation,the more obvious signs,copper since this year or 26.54%,especially since August,only two months into the time,from the price 9905 dollars / ton fall to the present 7115 dollars / ton around,the largest decline for 28.16%.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storySecondly,is thought to be most hedging function of gold and silver,also recently collapsed. In the last month,many people also think that the $1900 per ounce of gold can be done in one vigorous effort to break through $2000,or even see $2500,but less than a month later,goldFuturesPrice has fallen to $1639.8,a month or so decreases high amounts to 14%,silver is more exaggerated,on Friday alone,will fall 17%. In theory,if the financial crisis,capital is from other channels withdrawal into gold such hard currency to achieve hedge,but in the present global capital market is in a downturn,in the global economic recovery is still uncertain,gold also appear to be so to fall,it is hard to understand.Then,is it right? The world because of economic conditions thermotaxis into a liquidity tightening monetary policy? Look from current condition,except by the debt crisis most Greek clear will crunch,India by high inflation remain in effectIncrease interestBut with the BRIC countries,Brazil has chosen to cut interest rates,in addition to the UK and EuropeCentral bankThe Bank of Japan,still maintain the current level of interest rates unchanged,the Fed introduced “distort” version of QE2.5,and possibly at the beginning of next year to continue to push QE3. In addition,the G20 recently in Washington issued a statement saying,will take strong consistency of action on global economy is facing new challenges,determined to maintain financial stability,to restore market confidence,to promote economic growth. All the signs indicate that,”to maintain economic growth” is still the most countries in the world is faced with the pressing problem,to maintain this growth,apparently unable to use the tight monetary policy,that is to say,the global liquidity is still abundant.Then,in a liquidity is still abundant environment,why all the capital market crash? This should treat one divides into two. The fall of the stock market,due to the economic growth or recovery concerns,this is a normal performance,and the gold market,with its rising long-term capital profits,and demand or hedge. Now the most noteworthy,these when liquidity from the market withdrawal,choose to do with depressions to continue the attack,after all to profit as the goal of the capital is not likely to lie sleep.Recently,various signs,international hot money is the Chinese counterattack,in August of new foreign exchange reserves amounted to 376940000000 yuan,annulus comparing rises about 72%. To the extent that these hot money off the main reason,one is the difference,two is spread,three is the asset price difference. The difference is very good explanation,although the pace of Renminbi appreciation is accelerating,but from some countries recognized standard is still far away,the United States and even threatened to take new measures Shi Yan Yuan,the yuan is expected this year will rise 5% in 2012 4%,rise again. Spreads or explain,at present the United States federal funds interest rate level is 0-0.25%,the European Central Bank’s benchmark interest rate level is 1.5%,Japan’s zero interest rates,and we have a one-year deposit rate is 3.5%. Third asset price difference is not well understood,but you have a look nowBank of China(601988,Shares) average less than 10 times earnings,just 1.5 times price-to-book ratio,we can see that the Chinese quality of asset prices at a low level position.From this perspective,if a sum of money into Chinese banks,the 2012 year of exchange rate and the interest level can reach 7.5%,and the CPI on its not affected,they will not enter commodity market. This situation occurs once,Chinese economy will provide global work,because the banks’ profits occupying the whole of China corporate profits 1 / 3. Therefore,if you want to check erroneous ideas at the outset,then to how a pool can be introduced to achieve liquidity,turns up,flooding out of the benign loop. At least retaining is unstoppable.
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March 19th, 2012
Editor’s note: the British “Financial Times” recently published the editorial says,Brazil proposed to WTO (WTO) allows members to exchange rate “anti-dumping” measures,Brazil plan is an ingenious “false action”. WTO rejected Brazil’s proposal is inevitable,Brazil could pretend to be disappointed,then unilateral protectionist measures,sparking a trade war. The following is the full text.The invention of “currency war” is a word of Brazil and whole new word,the country recommend WTO (WTO) allows members to exchange rate “anti-dumping” measures. With the aid of such measures,Brazil will be through the implementation of those super loose monetary policy to engage in competitive devaluation of country of revenge. This proposal could not be adopted. It released a disturbing signal: in the world financial crisis and economic recession in four years,the international community has so far managed to avoid the kind of trade protectionism is on the rise.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyDespite the recent weakness of reals,but Brazil is worried that,once the United States and Britain launched a new quantitative easing,real exchange rate may even do more. Brazil thinks,if that is the case,it will be in the “currency war in the second half of” innocent injured. However,the real strength is largely to blame him Brazil.Last year before the election,the government of Brazil to spend money recklessly. Brazil National Development Bank (BNDES) released a large number of cheap loans. As the economy begins to overheat,BrazilCentral bankHad to put the rates to the need to level. This attracted large inflows of hot money,in turn pushed up the real exchange rate. Brazil to their own Baner under,but falsely accuse others kicked it.What is worse,for political reasons,Brazil often for no reason to accuse the United States of america. However,led to the Brazil industrial base hollow,not imported from American goods,while imports from cheap Chinese goods. In fact,if the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy work,Brazil can touch many light. American economy go strong,will boost China’s import demand for manufactured goods,and to promote Brazil commodity exports to china. The United States of America itself is one of Brazil’s main export markets.Those Brazil veteran trade diplomats must know them in the WTO,the trick will have no result. Formal recognition of an undervalued currency or currency being manipulated is a nightmare. Brazil has been recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) act as arbitrator,but IMF never enter this beach. In addition,rewriting the WTO about which kind of subsidy is not allowed to access the specified,all members agreed it was nearly impossible.Therefore we can think of,Brazil plan is an ingenious “false action”. WTO rejected Brazil’s proposal is inevitable,Brazil could pretend to be disappointed,then unilateral protectionist measures,sparking a trade war. Brazil recently high import tariffs on cars move,is the future of all sorts of friction aura. Brazil sometimes love out to play peacemaker,sometimes like to play the victim. This time,it needs to stand back,think again.Translator / Wu Yu
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March 19th, 2012
Page first: the first thing is to new China enterprise 500 strong ranksPage second: third things and real estate From Smith’s “wealth of the” at the beginning,the core proposition of economics is the study of the nature and causes of the wealth of nations,which explore the boom source problem. The prosperity of the country,cannot leave enterprise. In 2011,China entered the “fortune” 500 list reached 61,China has laid a foundation for wealth and prosperity,but if you explore these enterprises profitable logic: that rely on money,and to earn what money,is a pair of transition China has the practical significance topic. There are three things that are associated with Chinese enterprises to make money logic related to:Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe first thing is to new China enterprise 500 strong ranks. September 3,2011 – 4 days,China Enterprise Summit held in Chengdu,2011 China top 500 enterprises released. In my opinion,this list makes me the most concern is: 500 the highest profit 10 enterprises,all owned by the financial sector and the monopoly of state-owned enterprises occupy,respectivelyIndustrial and Commercial Bank of China(601398,Shares),Construction Bank(601939,Shares),Bank of China(601988,Shares),oil,Agricultural Bank of China(601288,Shares),mobile,Sinopec,cnooc,Bank of Communications(601328,Shares) and the CITIC Group,the 10 profit of enterprise and achieves 866843000000 yuan,occupy the 500 strong profit total four into. The list of 184 civilian look forward to total profit is inferior to 10 top half of the total profit of state-owned enterprises. China 500 strong before ten make money? Both the financial,telecommunications,or petroleum,are undoubtedly a monopoly,this and the 2011 American top 500 enterprises profit ranked 10 many belong to technology intensive,such as pharmaceutical,computer and office equipment,computer software industry formed a sharp contrast. According to this example,we will run the risk of being questioned the risk that,Chinese enterprise’s profit,quite one part from the “monopoly”.The second thing is the first half of 2011 China listed companies reported. The two cities a total of 2244 listed companies in the first half of the total earned net profit of 996912000000 yuan,of which nearly nine into the company to profitability,96 profit more than 1000000000 yuan for the listed company,in 2011 mid-term assessment gave a good report card. However,if further analysis,found that many listed companies behind the beautiful performance,it is worth pondering “profit logic”. According to performance and announcement shows,first half of the year,many listed companies are keen to bank financing and loans,and those with the main company unrelated acts for listed companies — contribution of beautiful.For example,in the financial markets,Conch Cement(600585,Shares),the total amount of 4000000000 yuan of operating capital inTrustAnd bank financial products,and China’s major equipment manufacturing industry enterprisesResearch of power(601369,Shares) also accumulated to spend 2650000000 yuan to buy financial products; see “loans”,by the end of August 24th,the Shanghai and Shenzhen two city has 107 about the announcement,involving the 52 listed companies,total loan amount exceeds 16000000000 yuan,an increase of nearly 38%. These loans,the annual interest rate lowest was 12%,the highest reached 21.6%. These loans to the listed company profits higher surprising contribution. For example,listed companyQianjiang biochemical(600796,Shares) entrusted loans totaling 140000000 yuan,interest income amounted to 16800000 yuan,than in the first quarter net profit of 13690000 yuan is still high. WhileWuhan Jianmin(600976,Shares) entrusted loans 150000000 yuan,the annual interest rate is 20%,year income amounts to 30000000 yuan,but the first half of the year the net profit but also 36200000 yuan. The most typical is the ST waveguide,the “mobile phone of the fighter” of the enterprise main business has been a series of losses,but its 2011 reported that its net profit is 35145800 yuan,of which foreign loans obtained income is 17738300 yuan,accounting for a net profit of high ratio of 50.47%.If say,Chinese top 500 enterprises profit quite one part from the monopolies,is it right? Can also be said again overgeneralization,Chinese listed companies are part of the profits,from idle bank financing,commissioned by the loans “credit arbitrage” lazy way. In August 10th the “Securities Times” first about bank credit capital flow report can actually from flank confirm this statement. The report says,The China Banking Regulatory CommissionChairmanLiu MingkangIn the three quarter situation analysis meeting said,about 3 trillion yuan of bank credit capital flows in the increasingly popular private lending market reports led to much media attention. However,in August 11th,the CBRC relevant person in charge on this line “rumor”. But undeniable is,there is a part of bank credit funds through various channels,into the current year yield high private lending market is an indisputable fact.
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March 19th, 2012
The development of the situation may be and RMB internationalization process and prospects about,this is China undoubtedly must be faced seriously and cogent grasp opportunity. The global financial crisis,Europe and the United States political crisis to China strategic opportunityText / Shi QipingThe United States of AmericaPedersenInstitute for International Economics in September published a commentary (by Arvind Subramanian),Europe and the United States economic crisis that will happen earlier in the past 300 years,western (homogeneous flat press,up to 200 years) in the economy leading position will be replaced by China; yuan more likely in the future 10 years to replace the dollar as the the reserve currency of choice.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the story3 years ago,the outbreak of the financial tsunami,the watch is can appear as the economic great depression of 1930 time; it is hard to imagine that 3 years from now,there will be continued to deepen,the deterioration of the European debt crisis,and hence also may evolve into Europe and the United States political crisis,which affects the global power structure.In fact,the global financial crisis in the globalization causes political effect maybe just started,the Middle East,North Africa,political change is prelusive; western countries recently as one falls social struggles and so on existing ruling regime caused the possible impact of the second act; and then,the debt andThe debt crisisIn Europe and the United States in the global political and economic layout position force weakening may be third act; and of course,the next is very likely the influence of changes in china…… Like the Pedersen Institute review article foresaw.The rise of China is now an international common perception and cognition,but the concept of time words,she began to date from 1979,Deng Xiaoping,but with an extremely important strategic situation judgement.Deng Xiaoping decided 1979 reforming and opening is the 30 years of the rise of China’s most important foundation. But Deng Xiaoping so will make reform and opening up,everything is a center with economic construction of major decisions,because he is in China the strategic situation observation,there is a “peaceful development strategy opportunity period” judgment. This judgment is important,not the peaceful development strategy opportunity period,will not be able to “everything is a center with economic construction”. Now it seems,Deng Xiaoping’s judgment is correct.Say “correct”,because over the past 30 years China has been a crucial peace development opportunity,but also must see,many of them also belong to lucky ingredients,try analytic as follows:(a) January 1,1979,it is Chinese reforming and opening of the start-up of the establishment of diplomatic relations,but also the day. The United States to play the China card balances the then Soviet Union,so please,to China,both sides in the honeymoon period. Disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991,Chinese brand significance disappeared,Sino-US relations have entered a new stage.(two) 1991 to 2001 are in the second stage,the United States mainly by the Clinton ruling,Sino-US relations from time to time because of human rights and the most-favoured-nation treatment and some small friction,but the overall problem,because the United States has always had a strong expectation,hope will China into the western political system. In 2001,China also finally into the world.(three) in 2001,the George W. Bush administration,is the so-called neoconservative hawks team. Start seeing China as a competitor,assume office beginning,on South China Sea collision. But “9 / 11″ terrorist attacks disrupted Bush roadmap,and thus fell into Afghanistan and Iraq war,escape,leaving a century before the financial tsunami,badly hurt. In 2009ObamaAfter the ruling,2011 May killed Ben Laden,this phase came to an end.From 1979 to 2011,through three stages,Sino-US relations is basically stable,the peaceful development strategy opportunity period,but there is no shortage of luck. From now on,the concern is that,China is under a period of strategic opportunity?The development of history,often is not subject to the will of the people. The financial tsunami has turned into Europe’s debt crisis,and the situation is grim with each passing day,Europe and the United States on the British Rui fiveCentral bankAll save European banks,Treasury SecretaryGeithnerEuropean Union EU finance ministers meeting to participate in “under the guidance of chess”. From long-term look,the world,has the ability to lend a helping hand is German and chinese.China should start? If the,how should begin? Not only is the hot topic in Chinese from all walks of life,into the global financial market is the most sensitive indicator. In this paper,the space is limited,not to be deep on this topic,but would like to point out: the development of the situation may be and RMB internationalization process and prospects about,this is China undoubtedly must be faced seriously and cogent grasp opportunity. For China,the real rise in addition to have a certain political,economic,military,cultural and other conditions,the international monetary conditions are indispensable. Now,the favorable situation is being formed.
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March 19th, 2012
Securities market weekly “” [Zhao Yan] contributing author of any game to win the patience,although the market’s lack of patience. Perhaps,more accurately,the market does not need patience,it simply voting with their feet.On September 21st the Federal Reserve said,will sell $400000000000 in short-term debt,buy the same amount of surplus for a period of 6 years to 30 years of long-term bonds,hold down long-term interest rates to stimulate economic growth. This makes always expect the Federal Reserve to the “new” policy to stimulate the market greatly disappoint one’s hopes,in three major stock indexes fell across the board.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe market of this reaction,like hopeful traveller was the head: stars,staggered backwards. External analysis of straight said,let the market downBernankeIt is be at one’s wit’s end,rescue mission to the United States of AmericaMinistry of Finance. The reality?The Fed will boost the American economy,off-the-peg policy choose one,is on the banks of approximately $1.6 Excess Reserve interest payment.The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley),2009 July speech,say,the Fed can improve the excess reserve interest rates to curb inflation,also can be in credit demand cut the interest rates to promote economic growth,full employment.Since 2008,the Fed introduced a series of policies to rescue the market at the same time,the banks pay interest on reserves. The bank loan is the Bank of goods,not to do business can also make money,this may seem high rates in fact become the market’s support rate,in other words,when the bank stock can also make money,reduces the kinetic energy bank not to sell,below which the rate of interest credit expansion.If the bank to get the interest of 0.25%,will give the funds for lending?At least it is certain,at present,it is most banks kept short-term funds for the best rates,has been a stop of bank funds into the economy role. Fed from the financial crisis at the beginning of the lamented “can’t let bank lending”,and for the banks,life motto is “don’t and fed to the enemy”,if the fed to expand credit to stimulate the economy,can reduce or cancel the payment of the interest,explicitly release signal. In other words,in the financial industry game participants could not have fed to keep this policy: the signal fed from 2008 since never had encouraged the bank credit expansion,higher reserve requirements also play a liquidity cage,QE2 results is not an expansion of liquidity,but interest rates down.Reaffirms the Fed really policy objectives,is: low interest rates to stimulate the economy,pushing and stoke inflation,expansion of liquidity,QE2,QE3 will also be so for inflation,they are responsible for,but not the United States domestic inflation. As the United States of America’s monetary authorities,its policy to a proper extent,as a globalCentral bank,fed on Chinese and European “credit expansion proposal” and QE signaling,as inflation of troy. But the benefits of this policy in the United States the United States faced numerous disputes. Bernanke and Wall Street favorite,but temple outside the general controversy that promotes opportunity to come.For a period of two days earlier,the Federal Open Market Committee (Federal Open Market Committee,referred to as FOMC) at the end of the meeting,the 10 poll officials has 3 opposed this action. This highlights the Fed internal differences still exist.But it is not difficult to see,the current fed to the high rate of unemployment and a weak economic growth concerns,gradually more than easing or lead to inflation grounded,further weakness in the dollar concerns. The fed to emphasize the economic foreground faces downside risks,the global financial market tensions.From the monetary and banking experts point of view,Bernanke is obviously the QE staunch advocate of politicians,from the point of view,Bernanke is only possible in the rate of inflation and is expected to reduce time to launch QE. He had a partner,former Fed vice chairman Cohen (Donald Kohn) predicted,the Fed may want to determine the inflation rate will drop down after the launch of QE3.From 2008 up to now,Fed monetary policy to push down interest rates and expanding credit consistent strategy has not changed,more complex sound,does not impede the Fed steadily,QE3 face of resistance,but the Fed has other alternative measures,as when the QE3 can get what you want,more just tolerance problem.He graduated from Peking University University of International Relations and Peking University China Center for economic research,now living in the United States of America San Francisco
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March 19th, 2012
We are going to play sniper warfare to foreign capital,to play defense,only this is the real stability.Money weekly “”:Chinese,please out of the trap!Text / Lang XianpingThe three major international rating agency Fitch,again recently “sing empty”Bank of China(601988,Shares) industry,the financing platform,social total financing,real estate loans is questioned,and said the next few years China Banking appears difficult operating risk,loose credit policy dependence,inflation,real estate loan risk has become the secret worry of Chinese banking industry.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe Fitch to our Chinese bank criticism from three aspects. First,our government investment in infrastructure over the past two years,the local government debt is more serious. The local government debt risk of default,will produce the payment crisis. Second,they think that at the beginning of 2009 after the start,many enterprises can not afford the money. At that time we suit one’s measures to local conditions,use new is old. But if a new debt,many banks do not make of this debt as a debt to handle,so the risk is low. In third,after 2008,we found that 5.6 trillion yuan loans include bill financing is not included in the formal banking loan portfolio,so is the so-called bad debts rate itself is only a part of the bad debt rate,so that some banks,including the big four firms debt rate we were worried about may 8%. The three reason for them to our banking industry gave a negative rating.Japan,one has to look at the failure modelThe Wall Street company “modus operandi”,the most terrible is each of the methods are not the same. In 2005 third Japan Securities Company Nikko Securities False means empty to increase profit 33%,Japan Securities Regulatory Commission fined 500000000 yen,this is the most severe punishment. In Nikko Securities major crisis,suddenly a Canadian asset management company “in good faith” to help the Nikko Securities,become the first major shareholders. But,two years after the company for $7700000000,the company was sold to Citigroup,which later,Citigroup holding the Nikko Securities 61% shares. At that time the Japanese CEO CitibankPedersenThis year,he is to take down the United States of America ratings of the S & P president. From this point of view,although the three big rating company with Wall Street relationship is partly hidden and partly visible,but in fact,Wall Street of the fund,the bank and the three major rating agencies are a group.I most worried about is that our bank will repeat the Bank of Japan’s some mistakes,because we and the Bank of Japan have similar sex. Japan has a bank called the long-term credit bank of Japan,which in 1998 situation and our bank today is very similar to the situation.First,the Japanese silver has 3 customers have a problem. It is a Japanese leasing,the second is NIE,the Japanese Randy branch company. The 3 companies in 1997 when a high amounts to 1200000000000 yen of bad loans,because the amount is huge,they simply can’t clean,in order to maintain the surface stability and drags. Second,in 1998,they have a big client called EIE,to the long-term credit bank of Japan borrowed a lot of money to go around the tourist resort,golf course,but because investment is too large,the cost is too high,eventually led to the loss of in successive years. In third,the Japanese silver in order to meet at 8% capital adequacy ratio,require customers to pay in advance,which resulted in a crisis. Rich clients will advance the money,no money,still can not afford to. It is the result of advance,good customer money lost,resulting in bankruptcy.Our bank industry and its are very similar,it makes me feel very frightened. One,our bank also has the huge bad loan. In two,our four state-owned banks or many other banks will be many loans to infrastructure,make image project. Three,because get macroscopical adjusting control,the bank capital adequacy requirement is very high,almost done and then long did the same thing. Do not let history repeat itselfFrom the beginning of 2002,the international investment institutions in the air singing the four major state-owned commercial banks,say we are technically insolvent,the stock price falls madly,finally found their low-cost holdings of CCB,ICBC,but also for our Chinese government at that time we use people’s money,their troubled assets bought entirely later,a beautiful,clean shells,with the most inexpensive price to sell to them,this is the result of. They buy the cost is our domestic subscription costs a fraction of. To HSBC bank buyingBank of Communications(601328,SharesFor example,at the time) for HK $1.68 to HK $5.14 cash to buy,finally. In 2006 the United States of America Goldman,American Express,Allianz,invested $3780000000 to purchaseIndustrial and Commercial Bank of China(601398,SharesShares),less than a year income 6.84 times,rare in the world. In June of last year,this year 3,in April,it will first sing empty bank of China and China Banking stocks. The three major rating agencies as a pawn,they downgraded,Wall Street of homeopathy. They look to our government,banks face,to a stable state of mind,on one hand sing empty hand to buy low,that is to say we are not a problem “,one is a problem,they will in some nominal eat us. I think our government in this area should have save act,we are going to play sniper warfare to foreign capital,to play defense,only this is the real stability.
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March 19th, 2012
Page first: international finance queasy international influencePage second: the international financial turmoil on China’s economic impactPage third: monetary policy from “control” to “guide” with “control” China Economic Report 2011 9 magazine cover The international financial turmoil and CountermeasuresWang JianDuring the summer of 2011 was the summer of the financial turmoil. First in July is the United States government debt ceiling dispute led to the global financial market Zhou Tianhan Beecher,the night of August 5th S & P announced,will the United States long-term sovereign credit rating from AAA down to AA,international financial market with acuteness oscillation,international financial market from the “big diving gold assets,bursting day” to “capital and the gold market both the roller coaster”. This international turmoil on world economy and Chinese economy have considerable influence,need to calmly deal with.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the story One,the international financial turmoil of international influence1 financial bombs,fuelIn August 5th,standard & Poor’s lowered the debt rating,to the international capital market cast a “financial bomb”,on the international capital markets in turmoil,played the role of fire. In the United States government debt ceiling to contend for the most fiery,the most to attract global attention in a week (July 25 ~ 29),the global stock market has just experienced a panic selling. American credit rating,further impact on the global stock market,to the cloud wave treacherous world capital market one disaster after another,again to change unpredictably American European capital markets with a heavy blow,market confidence has suffered heavy losses,investors pessimism arising from the “herding” exacerbated the turmoil in global capital markets. 2 the first bad cases,from worryingStandard & Poor’s lowered credit rating to the United States,to international economy society had a very bad precedent,future trouble is beyond doubt.First,the S & P such intermediary organization to the United States,said the government wanted to say and not say. Standard & Poor’s lowered the rating after the United States,the presidential palace andMinistry of FinanceAll out response,known as the S & P had made a serious mistake,the ratings of lack of credibility. Actually,ObamaThe government is trying to promote its export to promote economic recovery,needs a weaker dollar,but international condemnation of the depreciation of the dollar is too large,the United States need an excuse,a persuasive and not draw fire against oneself reason. The S & P by American government ratings,just give it to devalue the dollar of the United States of America created an excuse.Second,by intermediary organizations to do the United States government,want to do and not to do. In the United States government debt crisis led to a rapid decline of American capital market,the international status of the U.S. currency has been questioned during,the United States government most urgently need to do is to suppress the euro zone economy:,to keep the euro down with it,the consolidation of US dollar as an international currency. The S & P down-regulation of the United States government credit ratings,causing European government credit rating of the Domino effect,against the European capital markets,exacerbated the market’s euro-zone government debt fears,delaying the European economic recovery process. 3 others,in a dilemmaBoth the S & P and the United States government intends to collaborate,or S & P and the United States government did not seek,the United States government beggar-thy-neighbor,will creditor in dilemma goal achieved. Held by the United States Treasury countries not only by the loss,but also in a dilemma. China is holding the United States debt superpower,and all holders of U.S. debt of the state government is similar: if the United States Treasury bonds sold a lot,the U.S. debt will fall,not selling U.S. debt loses more; selling dollars to lead to a further devaluation of the dollar,the sale of U.S. debt after the dollar,if not high profit international investment,direct holding not only because of the depreciation of the dollar by the loss,but lost when holding U.S. debt interest; not to undersell the American national debt,the United States government wants the United States government center,can print more dollars to pay off the debt,currency debt,holding the United States debt would still fall. On creditor nation,regardless of whether the reduction or continue to hold the U.S. debt have a risk. 4 liquidity inflation spreadAmerican credit rating,the government will continue to the issuance of currency policy,the implementation of the so-called quantitative easing monetary policy,this policy is based on the QE3 mode,expand the scale of assets or other ways,its essence is the printing of money,will eventually lead to global excess liquidity,inflation spread.The eurozone debt problems also aggravate international liquidity. The United States of America downgrades,Euro government debt is more concerned by the whole world,in the face of increasingly heavy European government debt,the stormy euro also passively to join the ranks of monetary spamming,exacerbated by the global liquidity. 5 economic weakness,faced stagflationThe world economy is weak,facing the gradually into stagflation. The financial turmoil has not led to the United States European economy appeared 2008 recession,however,the financial turmoil to the recovery in the world economy on a brake,greatly delaying the recovery process,the influence of pair of world economy truly exist,should not be overlooked,economy gradually into stagflation is obviously.The United States government credit downgrades,capital market and gold market both riding a roller coaster,that the world economy is still fragile global market,especially the United States European stock market crash type though,that the United States of America Europe’s economic prospects worrying,heralded the decline in economic growth,domestic demand,economic recovery is weak and feeble. The world economy will gradually into the morass of economic stagflation.
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March 19th, 2012
Liu Peng[] national news linksBureau of StatisticsReleased in 70 large and medium-sized city residential sales price monthly report,August,as compared to the same period,new residential and second-hand housing price decline in the city are reduced; however,from the price better reflect the changing trends in the ring than the view,in August the new commercial housing price and second-hand housing prices decline of the city are increased. (the September 19th “capital times”)State price control policy since,in this year five or six month appeared first jump in prices stabilized,July is down. In August the house price decline of city continues to increase,will let people see prices will decline in the overall situation.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyHowever,in people’s perspective,the Bureau of Statistics figures are still a bit foggy,prices decreased sensation is not obvious. What is diluted price decline fact to give people the feeling?On one hand,is the property market bubble,prices high,has far exceeded people’s purchasing power,the small side fall in prices be of no importance.On the other hand,related statistics and believable,but often also “”. For example,compared to the same period from these ratios,are undoubtedly of relative to character,compared to the same period,annulus drop,does not represent real absolute value decline. For example,house prices in June 10000 yuan,11000 yuan in July,11900 yuan in August,then in July than in June increased 10% in August 8.18%,than July prices,rose August decreased significantly,but house prices fall? For example,prices rose sharply but the continuing disposable,small side down,again a retaliatory reaction,then count month decline slightly,reflected in prices absolute value,especially in relation to the old people almost unchanged purchasing power,prices is not really down.Of course,in strict state control policy and a tight monetary policy,prices fall is a trend,but also an inevitable. During this period,the national regulatory policy can not have the slightest loosening,bank financial and monetary policy also cannot occur any slack. The national policy and bank credit can hold,real estate developers in the capital under the pressure,will cannot hold,in time,falling house prices,it is not difficult to realize rational recovery.
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March 19th, 2012
Mean life of medium and small businesses 3-4 years Chinese civilian look forward to death bookThis article originally appeared in 2003 November investment in “science”The mankind is engaged in business activities of the history of the millennium,but who has seen a thousand years history of the enterprise? The century-old shop is also extremely rare. According to the United States of America “fortune” magazine reported in the United States,about 62% of the business life of not more than 5 years,only 2% of enterprises survival up to 50 years,mean life of medium and small businesses with less than 7 years,large enterprises average life span of less than 40 years; the average life expectancy for multinational company 1012 years; 500 strong companies of world average life expectancy of 4042 years 1000 strong enterprises,the average life expectancy of 30 years. Japan’s Nikkei industrial “” survey,the average life expectancy of 30 years of Japanese enterprises. “Japan hundred enterprises” one book records of Japan during the hundred years business history,in a hundred years,always be included in the top 100 enterprises only one. In China,relevant enterprises following the cycle is so clear statistics,but in 1993,1995,1997,2000,2002 for 5 national private enterprise large-scale sample survey shows that before 1993,private enterprises mean stand period of only 4 years,in 2000 to 7.02 years. In addition,the data show that the average life expectancy in China,company of group of about 7-8,and statistics in 2000 private enterprises average life is similar,do not know whether this is also the Chinese enterprise’s average survival time? If this number is credible,our country enterprise average life span far less in Japan,and the large-scale enterprises (Group) life expectancy only reached the United States Small and medium enterprises average. “Scientific investment” believe,this is a relatively optimistic estimate. To “scientific investment” interview survey and research,Chinese enterprises average life span is generally also in 3-4 years. China each year nearly 100 businesses each year in the United States,the closure of enterprises is about 10 million,down only about our failures number number 1 / 10,if taking into account the two countries in total number of enterprises of the differences,this number may be even more astonishing. Business failure is not terrible,just like any object has its own life cycle,enterprise also has its own life cycle. “Scientific” study enterprise investment failures,the purpose is not to enable enterprises to ever-young; just hope that Chinese enterprises can live healthier,less pain,happiness more. For those,a death can be regarded as hopeless. “” enterprise,scientific investment also has a hope,hope that their death is more valuable,more dignified,at least know what killed. Phoenix Nirvana,the purpose is not to death,but for the freshmen. I wish “scientific research investment”,can still living enterprises play a warning,the role of reference.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyAn enterprise’s success or failure,summed up the reasons it is inside and outside two respects. ,refers to the social environment and the environment,which the government decision making,policy,government administration according to law and the integrity of government,to the enterprise has be a life-and-death matter role; inside,is refers to the enterprise product development,personnel,finance,management and marketing. Although such analyses be applicable everywhere,but such a rough analysis on the operation and management of enterprises but there is no practical significance,not only to operate to provide reference for the enterprises,nor that they don’t repeat repeat. “Scientific investment” in recent years by some fall of enterprise and entrepreneur interviews,and based on the recent years domestic media hundreds of reports of carding,especially for private enterprises which relates to the case were studied,some were found to have things in common,Chinese private enterprises to defeat or death main reason there are 10 aspects. Some are original,has been with the growth of Chinese private enterprise history accompanied,still in a serious corrosion of Chinese private enterprise’s body,some are new,it is only in recent years,and some new pathogens as SARS virus,with strong replication and spreading,particularly worthy of Chinese private entrepreneurs wary.Chinese private enterprises first death: dying withTo drive a car knows,the more broad flat road,driving more susceptible to the problem. Because the road is too flat,the vision is too wide,the human spirit to paralysis. Therefore,experienced designers in the design of highway,will deliberately cut straight to curved,deliberately designed some corners. Life is also like this. If a person life too smooth,will inevitably be opinionated,supercilious,and if this person also happens to be an entrepreneur,that trouble,his business is not far from the “accident”. So,someone says to do business is not to make money,but begins to make money,but also make a lot of money. A start not profitable enterprise,as long as he lives,the right direction,sooner or later there’s money in a day; and started to make money,but also make a lot of money of the enterprise,he earns money sooner or later is others,he is working on behalf of others,for others than. The reason for this is that,”Shun”,a smooth,it is not easy to keep the “rules”,the “rules” in the eye,the “rules” when a thing.In May 25,2003,Changsha police arrested a man by the name of Li Zhongwen. It is said that Li Zhongwen was one of his creditors in the Nijiqianxing followed a year later,to expose the police arrests. When Li Zhongwen is arrested,Changsha a teahouse tea.Speak up,Li Zhongwen is also poor families. He is the son of a fisherman,from snacks is not warm enough to wear. At the age of 19 was recommended to Tianjin as an apprentice,learning to make shoes. As hard,eat bitter,highly popular master,learn a good craft shoes. Because be vigilant,mind is quick,be the same as the hometown of Wenzhou boss’s favorite,the boss out of business,will often bring him along. Have such conditions,coupled with his attention,not long after,Li Zhongwen will shoe production,marketing got a knowledgeable.Li Zhong the great,saw his hometown of Wenzhou in the outside when the boss,but only when a young worker,very unwilling. In 1994,fledgling Li Zhong diction of the original owner,to borrow 4000 dollars,and brother two people started in Tianjin win.Li Zhongwen and his brother have a lot of suffering,hungry often only two bites of steamed food,winter because can not afford the quilt,only wearing a coat of arms. Li Zhongwen and his brother after a study on Tianjin,called a “Huaqing Hot Spring” old bathhouse child,he plans to be converted into a shoe store. In order to save money,from painting the house to buy all kinds of decoration materials,the twins are diy. Wenzhou and Fujian Jinjiang as China’s footwear and shoe factory in the town,Li Zhongwen did a few years,have some relationship,half a half credit quickly to solve the source. Li Zhongwen is very business-minded,see Tianjin then store shoes are very expensive,he would act in a diametrically opposite way,all the shoes on sale,the business is prosperous. Li Zhongwen’s first time to do business,in the first year of his business,he by the old bathhouse son alterations of only 420 square meters of shoe has brought him about 4000000 yuan income.Preliminary rich Li Zhong the greater,the “bathhouse child” shoe along part of their business,he was a part of the rental. See Li Zhongwen’s shoe store business is prosperous,people are willing to pay a premium to lease his pavement. Li Zhongwen does so,a dispersing risk,on the other hand collect rent more funds for operation. This is out of the ordinary side of Li Zhongwen,and he is shrewd. By 1996,Li Zhongwen and his brother in Tianjin has 4 shoe stores,each store in the area of four hundred or five hundred square meters,the business is good.However,later that year,Li Zhongwen suddenly decided to merge the 4 shoe shops are turned off,while another leasing 5 stores,each store business area has expanded to thousands of square meters,at the same time out “100 letters shoes” banner,with “civilian,low cost,low price” call out,”shoes supermarket”,and the introduction of the concept of chain,to nickname called “China’s first shoe chain enterprises”. The new business mode,ultra-low prices,attract social praise Ruchao,attracted customers all day full of stores,for Li Zhongwen to bring rich and generous profit.Li Zhongwen slowly that light is a Tianjin has not enough on its own work. He was determined to Shunfengchefan,”100 letters shoes” of flowers all over the country. From 1997 to 2000,4 years of short time,”100 letters shoes” in the country more than 40 city opened a 80 store,which owns 28000 employees,total assets reached about 3000000000 yuan. Li Zhongwen’s shoe store,large area of over 10000 square meters,small also have 1 more than 1000 square metre,is grand and magnificent,extraordinary momentum.Li Zhongwen’s business was simply too Shun,Shun Shun to let others envy,even he himself seems to be a dream. This time Li Zhongwen has not only is a billionaire,and become celebrities,is known as “Chinese shoe king”. After Shun situation makes Li Zhongwen heroic bursting. He claims that,by 2002,”100 letters shoes” in the country to open 100 stores,5 years among the world’s top 500. He declared proudly,his habit is only the first,not the second. If a hundred shoe in the local sales are not the first,he would turn it off.When Li Zhongwen claimed that his “100 letters shoes” to within 5 years among the top 500 of the world’s troubles began when. Li Zhongwen runs a shoe store,is taken by the appliance distribution that set pattern,namely a first pad for goods manufacturers,after a period of time,then by the merchant to the manufacturers node section. This mode of operation,can be very good to ease the merchant capital tensions,but also a huge latent risk. In the “letters” in the beginning,Li Zhongwen’s reputation is very good,good for 10 days to 10 days,is the manufacturers knot knot money,does not exceed a maximum of 15 days. But as Li Zhongwen’s confident,a short period of time to open dozens of stores and shops,the growing area,the largest of more than 10000 square meters. These shops Zhanya substantial funds,this makes “letters” capital is always in a state of extreme shortage. “Letters” began to break one’s promise guitar manufacturers,the date of the long days and months multiplying,manufacturers. At the same time,”letters” in a short period of time the rapid expansion,the boss of their accumulation of knowledge and knowledge structure does not follow to go up the development of enterprises,management confusion is inevitable. This led to the consequences of the two,first,for Li Zhongwen works throughout the country dozens of shops are mostly to his friends and relatives. These friends and relatives by their momentary at once,began to openly,large-scale private enterprises,seeking,to the great detriment to the interests of inferior goods; second,began “letters”,the original influx of the world depend on two weapon,one is cheap,two is a high quality,cheap still now,qualitative actor have do not talk to go up. Customer continuous complaints,make the government attention. Because of product quality problems,”letters” the sharp decline in sales,make the already tense capital chain further.”Letters” be beset with troubles internally and externally,Li Zhongwen looks as strong as iron empire becomes be placed in jeopardy. Just then,100 letters there has always been a “tax evasion” incident was exposed,became the folding camel’s back is the last straw. With the industrial and commercial,Tax,public security departments joint investigation team composed of the “hundred in Northeast Branch”,”letters” defaulted on 100 million yuan huge money around the suppliers go into action without delay. Li Zhongwen’s “letters” empire almost overnight crumble. Li Zhongwen is the last thing,make a lot of promise,a lot of lip-service,then decamp. The Li Zhongwen in Changsha’s arrest,is being accused of fraud by lip-service.Summary of Li Zhongwen’s defeat,only one word,that is “shun”. Li Zhongwen is too Shun,Shun to he considered himself to be equal to anything,no adverse toward. Because he was in Tianjin shop,shop more,earn more money. He will be “big shop to earn a lot of money” as truth,throughout the country to unrestricted copy,so that in an only hundreds of thousands of people in the city,he also can open a foot by tens of thousands of square meters of shoe store franchise,regardless of local consumption ability. “Letters” the shop,a make a late,open,open a / A,is not surprising.As the old saying goes,”be born at hardship,died of happiness”. We from the numerous private entrepreneurs defeat can see the “good” under the shadow.Shi YuzhuSo,Huaihanxin as well; Wu Bingxin is so,so it is with Hu Zhibiao. That year Li Jiachen Hua Yu,do a project into a project. A wood processing technology,earned 180000 yuan; to make an artificial marble technology,earned 6000000 yuan; make a synthetic fuel technology,3 months only entertain all around pilgrimage person ticket received 3000000 yuan,transfer fees received 20000000 yuan. Li Jiachen then consider themselves to be equal to anything,enterprises not only to his invention,but also engage in real estate,but also to the pharmaceutical industry. Then,a real estate lost millions of dollars,a “shoe foot incense” lost tens of millions of dollars. The enterprise of a few years of savings,in the subsequent one or two years into a clean out completely. Li Jiachen does not want to understand their own ah,so wise,almost do what people can’t do,how to do real estate,the pharmaceutical industry! Finally he forced himself to sell the business,have to again lose his entire savings,to return the loan of bank. Li Jiachen later to Peking University to study,and later Li Jiachen finally figured it out,the mood is smooth. In an interview with reporters,he said he is going for a job: “I request the annual salary is 120000. But if the enterprise development in the future,I can also do the driver,assistant,a month to give me three thousand or four thousand yuan is OK,because the work is also a kind of learning.” China’s market economy only over 20 years,have appeared many scenery unlimited company,have appeared many scenery unlimited business hero,these enterprises,these enterprises the hero of this estate? “Scientific investment” think,enterprise,entrepreneur environment “Shun” is evil,”Shun” is China’s first private enterprises archenemy,is also China’s private entrepreneur’s first enemy.China private enterprise second dead: died.People are emotional,it whether the relationship of father and son,mother love,brotherhood,brotherly love,couples,friends…… No matter what kind of feelings are precious. When you start time,when you do business,often need these feelings of affection,friendship link with the help of. But is not handled well,these affection,friendship will be you do business. “The world’s only permanent interests,forever friends.” The word up cold,but most of the time it is the truth. Do a business person,should keep in mind.When Wu Dong do do business smooth sailing when,he remembered that all friends here,they are called him,giving the best treatment. Sometimes,rather than himself,wouldn’t let friends suffer. These friends are to a large extent also gave Wu Dong’s largest help. Wu Dong enterprises to grow and develop,cannot leave these friends help.Wu Dong is Hunan Hengdong modern energy-saving project limited company chairman. This is an extremely clever man,is also a start empty-handed model. As early as in the early 80′s,a defense work to do engage in emulsion explosive load bearing body,invited many experts who also didn’t succeed. Only primary school education Wu Dongfu hear information come actively to offer. It was a hot time,is really a dare to think,dares to do anything in a defense work to do,he promised his request. If in the nowadays,it is an unimaginable things. While Wu Dongfu unexpectedly also the numerous experts and scholars have failed to put things into the. Wu Dong fame,broadcast sound,TV film,even the CCTV to make special reports. Because do this emulsion explosive load bearing body and energy saving have some technical links,Wu Dong homeopathic established an energy engineering company. By Wu Dong “celebrity effect”,the company quickly prosperously. Wu Dong became “Hunan’s first millionaire”,at that timeZhang YueThe Zhang Jian brothers,the Changsha lofty was nothing there,”the richest man in Hunan,” hat in the Wu Dong’s head. Wu Dong think he can have today,because of his play the world with the help of farmer brother to think,now he is rich,he can’t treat this group of brothers.Wu Dong was trying to help his brother. In his own energy company was established under a dozen branch,good brother one. He stipulated that the company only needs to pay the company some symbolic management fees,other profit is its own. These brothers to repay him? They also started in strict accordance with the rules,to pay management fees,some people see Wu Dong slowly “mercy”,”good”,so the management fee is not paid,the management fee slowly turned white. Wu Dong never asked them to white. Not only do not pay management fees,the “brother” also try various devices to force the company to raise money from the east. They asked Wu Dongfu secured loans,Wu Dong always grant whatever is requested. Wu Dong loyalty. The brother is see Wu Dong,and eat him. In order to take care of themselves together to build it with the help of farmer brother’s face,in Wu Dongfu management company in these years,the modern Hengdong energy engineering company never to go outside for a senior management staff and college students. His reason is: “these people come in,will despise my peasant brothers.”Wu Dong was a very social sense of responsibility. In Hengdong,everywhere filled with Wu tung tree name tablet of merits and virtues,almost every monument,is a large donation. Wu Dong in the company was first,then made a decision: that they get a piece of money profits,must be free to donate 8 cents to the society,he left only 2 cents for development. Not only do the same,he also requested the branch manager,his “farmer brother” have three seven open,make a piece of money,they can only stay 3 wool,7 wool to society. His brothers do not do not know,but he is strict.Wu Dong business done ten years,his account was not a penny savings. This depended on the loyalty of business enterprises,spectrophotometric exhaustion of the enterprise,the development aftereffect of the enterprise one can imagine. Hunan province Hengdong modern energy-saving engineering limited in after the first few years after the fire,soon fell into silence. By the fire and dull,dull and lonely by myself,how Wu Dong unaware. Even in his most difficult time,he also donated about 1000000 yuan to the glorious career,helping the poor.Wu Dong soon turned to a poor man. In 2000 August,Wu Dong because a others brought bonded value 20840 yuan tiger was arrested,in prison to sit for 4 months. When he came out,find themselves in the brothers had fizzled out,more than a dozen branch only two branch of the brothers were still firmly waiting for him,and he together to stage a comeback. Wu Dong downhearted,will they try line severance,and not only so,he strongly with his decades brought his wife for divorce. His reason: they already so,why should also involve other people.In the final analysis,Wu Dong is falling in “loyalty”,”feelings” trap inextricably bogged down in. Wu Dong,life is an absolute good,but do not break down enterprise can not be. “I wish your heart my heart” such a thing,in the modern society where go to? He had no reason to ask others to do it! If Wu Dongfu early a thousand years,such as in the Song era,in the water margin Liangshan,Wu Dong is a hero. But in modern society,the modern enterprise is the stress of a system,do everything by rule,no rule of Cheng Fangyuan. Wu Dong’s defeat,is not accidental,but the inevitable result.When the sentiment to overcome reason,a lot of strange,even absurd things can happen. In Shanxi,Yuci,has a Ding Ze delta environmental protection industry limited company,the production of brick molding machine,in the very famous local. Company chairman is Wang Yongchang. In 1999,Wang Yongchang’s got a man,called Guo Ying. Guo Ying did have a glib,MLM,was Wang Yongchang. Guo Ying is also very capable,able to endure hardship,will appear in the Ren Dingze Delta,the sales manager’s time,soon will Ding Ze delta product promotion to the national. Wang Yongchang was glad she eye know,will not only their own cars to Guo Ying to sit,but also for him to buy a big house. In addition,in addition to take sales commission,at Wang Yongchang’s insistence,the company will Guo Ying’s annual salary was raised to 100000 yuan,the relative poverty in the Shanxi,is simply the price. Wang Yongchang Guo Ying is not thick,investment is huge. And Guo Ying return present for present results are: home! In 1999,when Guo Ying felt his fledgling,quietly leave the Ding Ze delta. He wants to keep house,do a career one time. He do is dig: Ding Ze Delta at. However,Guo Ying did not think so,and this line was so deep,it seems simple brick molding machine,it is unexpectedly complex anomalies. Guo Ying ended up with failure. When cornered,he is back for the original owner to forgive yourself,keep yourself. Wang Yongchang not only to forgive and forget,when in 2000 to October,Ding Ze Delta Guo Ying proposed that the sales manager’s job is too low,and your ability to be disproportionate,vice president,Wang Yongchang said nothing,immediately draw on the board were appointed. To Wang Yongchang’s honest idea,people are emotional animals,death can still function,and is a small Guo Ying.Unfortunately,Wang Yongchang is like that,they do not want to. Master power Guo Ying began quietly to Ding Ze Delta “transformation”. First of all,in the sales department to discriminate against those who hold different views,the sales staff all into their own confidants,the company advertising sales calls for his personal mobile phone number,so that the Ding Ze delta customer resources slowly in our hands. When someone found that Guo Ying’s “bad” behavior,to the Wang Yongchang report,Wang Yongchang is the employers do not suspect,the suspect not to support,”Guo total work.” Secondly,peep enterprise technology secret. Guo Ying’s first home,independent hill,because technology is rather unsuccessful,now Wang Yongchang to forgive and forget,gave him a company vice,such a godsend,Guo Ying can waste! Soon,as Ding Ze delta enterprise core competitiveness’s technical department is arranged on the Guo Ying. “”. In 2001 October,when Wang Yongchang visits abroad,commissioned Guo Ying has presided over the company’s work,Guo Ying’s technique of “spy” begins to play a role. Ding Ze Delta core technology secrets,even drawing tape data,was his “agent” sweep away. At Guo Ying’s instigation,the “willing to follow Kuo always walk” in the technical personnel of the “copy” finished Ding Ze Delta all relevant technical data,also will be the technical data from Ding Ze delta Technology Department of computer to clean out completely. Guo Ying did this mean is very clear: brick molding machine together in this business you don’t do Wang Yongchang,Guo Ying have I a person playing enough.Guo Ying does all this,in Wang Yongchang from abroad come back on the same day,he also went to Wang Yongchang to resign,said he even left Ding Ze Delta,is still a member of the Ding Ze Delta,have an obligation to help Ding Ze Delta,stands ready to provide “Wang Dong” service,and to ensure that,never imitation Ding Ze delta products,not to get involved in the brick shaping machine industry. Poor Wang Yongchang live in a drum,but for Guo Ying’s argument and moved.Guo Ying left immediately after Ding Ze Delta,registered the “Oriental sky environmental protection science and technology limited company”,in addition to the production of products of change,is almost Ding Ze delta replica products. In the Guo Ying company’s impact,lose the exclusive technology,and almost lost all customer resources Ding Ze delta suffer a big. Wang Yongchang had to be nonplussed over sth. to the public security bureau. In January 25,2002,Guo Ying suspected of infringement of commercial secrets was arrested. Guo Ying got a penalty,Wang Yongchang and Ding Ze delta also paid a heavy price.In Wang Yongchang’s view,people have feelings,as long as their true heart,feelings pay,always able to get someone to return,the so-called “cast with a peach,quoted by Qiong Yao”. He did not think of,in this world,what often happens is “sow dragon seeds,harvesting fleas”. If not blindly believe that their emotional investment,let these so-called emotional investment dizzy,how can a person in his own monitor to circumstances,their enterprise solely entrusted to a guilty of “Treason” criminal record!Many people love to see Qiong Yao’s novels. Qiong Yao is the hero of the novel is basically a type: emotion,not reason,so end in tragedy is not surprising. “Daughter red” world famous,the original Zhejiang Shaoxing daughter red wine company from restructuring state-owned enterprises,the relevant departments meant that in the factory when the decades of director Zhu Gonglian accounts for a large share,Zhu Gonglian said everyone together for decades is not easy,equity or equally good results,is the factory all stocks,shares almost everyone. All members of the plant employees to praise Zhu Gonglian is the good cadre,masses of heart. The company from state-owned enterprises to become private,without so many restrictions and fetters of the bundle,distribution of profits also can be your own boss. A group of poor people who used a lot of money,the face,if withstand the temptation,so the company profits every year share out. Competitors are in progress,”daughter red” has completely lost the development aftereffect,until Zhu Gonglian found a trend,requiring companies to leave a portion of the annual profit,as enterprise development funds,but it was the majority shareholder opposition. A having a great reputation of “daughter red”,now is to go from bad to worse,were acquired to buy go,everybody is not really want to run the business,just like “daughter red” this brand,its capital operation as a means of. Zhu Gonglian is now too late to regret. If they obey the relevant advice,rather than considering so many colleagues feelings,take large shares in enterprises,can speak,then,with my qualifications and experience,now “daughter red” also not fall to this situation,do not be shareholders of the new boss around,pushed and shoved,slavishly dependent,look at the.Complicated and difficult to deal with various relations in private enterprises,some say,private enterprises in China do not good reason,is promiscuous,so,China’s private enterprises should pay special attention to not trapped for the love. To know the feeling of flooding is the reason the levee,an entrepreneur without reason,his business is also not far behind.China private enterprise third dead: Die Enterprise PoliticizationChina is a political country,but that we say here is political,not accepted concepts on the politics,not doctrine. The so-called enterprise politicization,is an enterprise carries political significance,bearing the official political future,often this is the result of the rapid death of enterprises. An officer must first have the achievements. Most likely to give achievement in one’s post,let a person see achievement place in where? Roads,building. So,accompanied by officials and enhance the position promotion,in the two place of most enterprise cropper.We all know that giant died because built a giant edifice. Giant why to cover such a beyond their financial and material resources,and may also have 100 years giant cannot use the building? The giant building intended to cover 38 layer,then why up to the 70 floor. Shi Yuzhu explained this problem: “38 ideas to come out before long,the second half of 1992 a leader to visit our company,see the building location is very good,it is recommended to the floor a little higher,from personal to the development of real estate. So,we put the design changed to 54 layer. Later,soon had the design changed to 64 layers,which are the two factors: one is the design unit to said 54 layer and the 64 layer on the following basis are not affected; two is that we wanted to cover Zhuhai city glory,a landmark building. Guangzhou had wanted to build the highest building,set in 63 layers,we need more than it. At the beginning of 1994 and a leader to inspect Zhuhai,at the same time to visit the giant group,we find 64 layer having made a taboo,group responsible for several people together on the mentioned 70 layer,called the architect of Hongkong’s advice,the other divisions of technically feasible,so they set in the 70 layer.” Listen to Shi Yuzhu’s words,what is your feeling? Is it right? Like a child,like the play? So in the enterprise,how to defeat! Shi Yuzhu was in Shenzhen to see not one,took the decision to move to Zhuhai enterprise. Zhuhai’s top leadership to Shi Yuzhu very seriously,as he does a business trip a lot of convenience. Now the leadership necessary,how Shi Yuzhu could not return present for present? And Shi Yuzhu’s “contribution” not done. When Shi Yuzhu decided to “Zhuhai glory,for the leadership of glory”,giant edifice is composed of 38 layers of heightening to 70 layer,the Zhuhai authorities immediately gave Shi Yuzhu a “special honour”. In 1993,Shi Yuzhu won the “Zhuhai second science and technology award special award”. Zhuhai City Hall award Shi Yuzhu Audi cars,three rooms one hall house and a bonus of 630000 yuan. Both of you to me,as if there is a tacit understanding,bitter is the corporate. The giant building the original budget of 200000000 yuan,duration 2 years,heightening to after the 70 layer,the budget is 1200000000 yuan,construction period lengthen to 6 years. Shi Yuzhu later giants all liquidity into the giant building,plus in Hongkong to spend money,also fill the black hole. The last giant building did not cover up,the giants are finished.Coincidentally,Yunnan “titanium king” Luo Zhide also have such a experience. Luo Zhide operating in Yunnan mining industry,make a lot of money. He later also invested in the Yunnan Institute of education established a way of entrepreneur academy,Yunnan to train a lot of private entrepreneurs,so,Luo Zhide and the “father of Yunnan civilian look forward to” reputation,the industry enjoys high prestige in Yunnan. In 1992,Luo Zhide proposed in Kunming to cover a 56 layer of building. The reason for the 56 layer,because the Chinese nation has a total of 56 nationalities. Each nation layer,in order to reveal the national unity. Luo Zhide’s original intention,is to put forward such a plan,have a look whether feasible,who knows this plan makes the leadership know. The building was immediately given a beautifully political significance. The relevant departments will also work in downtown Kunming,an area of 100 acres of land was “awarded” to the road up to the company’s name,the relevant departments in the outskirts of Kunming gave Luo Zhide 200 acres of land. About this,Luo Zhide did not retreat,had to drive a duck onto a perch. The road of the company was strength,far enough to support such a building,to bank loans and less than. Luo Zhide had no plan,finally came up with an equity financing. Hope this trick really,only offering for the first 3 days will raise 20000000 yuan. Just when Luo Zhide thinks problem solving,a reporter to write a reference,said the Road Tatsu hair stock,disturb the market order. It sent down the investigation group,Road Tatsu company was ordered to immediately stop the stock issue. The building was built without the top leadership,also on his views. Road Tatsu company since the troubled,walking downhill. The original mine continuously all is w
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March 19th, 2012
India as an Asian country,should maintain the peaceful development of Asia auspicious situation,but are now joined by the situation in the South China Sea.The 2008 International after the outbreak of the financial crisis in Asia,”rise abruptly” the tendency is more obvious. Whether in East and Southeast Asia,or south,basically have entered a rapid development period,become the important engine of economic development.Along with the vigorous development of Asia,world each big powers also gradually “strategic focus shifted to Asia”. This among them,have powers to try to gradually to the South China Sea into a performance center stage,staged scenes “have an ulterior motive” and “practical joke”.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyRecently,India’s foreign minister Krishna visited Vietnam and Vietnamese foreign minister Pham Binh Minh,India state-owned oil and gas company in the South China Sea dispute sea oil agreement. Face China to protest and opposition,India has said: “the Chinese have their own worries,but we are in accordance with the Vietnamese authorities have told us. We have told the Chinese conveyed by this point “,and claimed that their actions are consistent with international law.India is so regardless of Asian common development overall situation,insist to the disputes of the South China Sea,the South China Sea to ease the situation roily,cover for two reasons:One,India in the South China Sea issue “limelight” in order to attract international attention,which will itself into the South China Sea dispute stakeholders,for later involved in deep South China Sea dispute,thereby affecting East Asia order lay groundwork.India since the introduction of the “East Policy” since,continue to strengthen cooperation with Southeast Asia,northeast inferior the country is interactive,active participation in East Asia and Pacific affairs. 2010 June,India’s foreign minister Krishna “in South Korea Diplomatic Security Research Institute” speech,stressed that “the ‘Look East’ policy after 18 years of development,India has gradually become a country of East asia”.With the global major forces will “strategic focus” to Asia-Pacific area,Asia-Pacific power struggle intensified,the South China Sea issue become some countries to participate in the Asian and Pacific Affairs,strategy to contain China grasper. In late July,China and ASEAN “South China Sea” Declaration on the conduct of parties fulfil policy to reach a consensus,resulting in some countries feel accident,they followed the palliative situation uncomfortable. For the containment of China development or even damage the Asian peaceful rise situation,they hope that the situation in the South China Sea to maintain moderate tension,think its intervention and participate in shaping East Asian regional order in the process of creating opportunities. An obvious example is the India media hype “confrontation and South China sea”.At the end of 7,India warship “Ella watts” from Nha Trang in Beibu Gulf region,allegedly by the Chinese navy “propaganda”. But the matter for the first time in more than a month after India reported in the media,and the “South China Sea and naval confrontation” sensational “title” to attract the eye,causing some opinion of big noise,accused the Chinese in the South China Sea “overbearing”,”prevent” freedom of navigation voice as one falls,India’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Prakash also the South China Sea to emphasis on maintaining freedom of navigation. In fact,”Ella watts” warships into the North Bay area,does not preclude the entry China Sea in May,and the area away from the South China Sea channel,rendering “China to enter the Chinese sea vessels normal propaganda” to “hinder voyage in the South China Sea free” is another attempt.Second,India to China as a strategic rival,the South China Sea area increase intervening strength for strategic ambitions,in an attempt to contain China’s peaceful development. On one hand,long-term since,India to India ocean as its sphere of influence,to the United States in India ocean in the presence of the disaffected. Along with the Chinese navy to the Gulf of Aden piracy,India also began to Chinese Navy activity expressed concern,and from the Americans took over the rumors about China around India to carry out the “string of pearls” strategy.Recently,India and China in India ocean have exclusive exploration rights in the mining area deep dissatisfaction. In July 19th,Council of the International Seabed Authority approved the China Ocean Association proposed polymetallic sulfide mining claims,the Chinese in the southwest to India ocean international seabed area was 10000 square kilometers of exclusive exploration area in the future,and the priority of mining rights. In response,India Naval Intelligence Department said,China won the exclusive exploration rights for its warships in India backyard activities and the collection of mineral resources information and provide convenient ways. India the South China Sea oil and gas development in the South China Sea,create tension,is an attempt to divert Chinese energy,hysteretic China into India ocean pace. According to the Japanese “Yomiuri Shimbun” reported,India Navy source said: “China’s future will focus from South China Sea to India ocean. To prevent this,India needs a pre-emptive”.On the other hand,India sees itself as the South Asian subcontinent overlord,not his country “.” the area of China and its neighboring countries,good interaction was deeply dissatisfied. India occupation diplomat badra Kumar Ambassador pointed out,India’s participation in the South China Sea oil development focus is not the energy security and international law,but China,Pakistan,India triangle another copy,to form China,Vietnam,India between new triangle. As a result of Vietnam and China in the South China Sea dispute,makes Vietnam became India to contain China’s best choice.In recent years,the South China Sea tensions,India and Vietnam among military interacts more frequently. In 2010,India’s defense minister Anthony said it was willing to Vietnamese military upgrades to provide all the help. 2011 May,India two warships visit Hu Zhiming city,ship officers and men had the honor of Vietnam visited the District seventh headquarters and headquarters of the navy. In June,the India government spokesman Prakash said,according to the India and Vietnam naval cooperation framework,Vietnam will allow India to carry the missile destroyers into the Nha Trang and lower Longgang,India to help the Vietnamese navy to build the ships and training naval personnel. July,India “Ella watts” on the tank landing ship visited Nha Trang,Vietnam Haiphong and other ports. The foreign minister of India to visit Vietnam,India Department of defense procurement department Sharma also led a high-level military delegations to visit Vietnam,to help Vietnam training submarines and underwater military matters.India as an Asian country,should maintain the peaceful development of Asia auspicious situation,but are now joined by the situation in the South China Sea. As the India international problem expert B. Raman in Eurasia Review Online warning,in the United States have caution in the area,India should avoid impetuosity.
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March 19th, 2012
Learn from previous experience in coping with the international financial crisis,save,announced a new policy of expanding domestic demand,through further revitalize the domestic investment and domestic consumption to economic growthFrom the 1998 outbreak of the Asian financial crisis to the global financial crisis in 2008 erupt in the round,our country exports decreased,economic growth is lack of power,increased unemployment,has sounded the clarion call of “expanding domestic demand”. At present we have once again sounded the clarion call to respond to this,probably coming from Europe and the United States sovereign debt crisis has triggered a new round of world economic recession,and the resulting in China’s exports and economic slowdown.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyRecently since a period of time,accumulated over the years into a sovereign debt crisis “Domino effect” in the United States and Europe spread,not only in Greece,Portugal,Spain and other countries financial difficulties has become more and more serious,and the United States,Italy and other countries also suffered the credit rating downgrade,together with these countries in crisis after the emergence of high unemployment and inadequate consumption problems always without remission. Therefore,the world economy will be entered after the crisis of the “recession” period,the Chinese export growth will further slow down,domestic economic slowdown factor increase,guarantees the growth to increase the difficulty of.From the point of international environment,the United States gross domestic product in the one or two quarter at an annual rate of only 0.4% and 1.3% respectively,significantly lower than last year’s 3.1%. The American White House Office of management and budget to substantially lower the American economic growth forecasts full-year 2011,will increase from 2.7% in February to 1.7%,2012 annual growth rate from 3.6% to 2.6%. Euro zone economy and a quarter year-on-year growth rate of only 0.8% and 2.5%. As the European debt crisis to Italy,Spain and France spread,the euro zone’s two quarter economic growth is much lower than expected,the better the performance of the German economy,law is almost stagnant.From the domestic economy,in recent years the contribution rate to the economic growth of high industry and real estate industry development is lack of power,automotive,household appliances and other durable consumer goods consumption considerably atrophic,and many small and medium enterprises with export orders to reduce labor costs,and the rising costs of raw materials,particularly due to financing difficulties led to the capital chain rupture threatened to further aggravate,facing the survival difficult.On one hand,our economy growth speed of industrial growth has noticeably slowed,August above-scale industrial added value increased by 13.5%,than in July dropped 0.5 percentage points. On the other hand,as the growth of economy of influence our country key dynamic factors of investment and consumption also showed signs of slowing down. From 1 to August,investment in fixed assets (excluding farmer) grew by 25%,compared to 1 ~ in July dropped 0.4 percentage points. Social commodity retail sales from June since 3 months of consecutive decline. Automobile,household appliances sales decline was most apparent. Especially the new export orders index has fallen sharply in August than in July,a decrease of 9.6 percentage points. Therefore,we should absorb the experience of coping with the international financial crisis,and other crisis has not completely economy of influence our country and policy; in speeding up the adjustment of export structure,the introduction of new encouraging export measures and mining export potential basis,save,focus on the introduction of new policies to expand domestic demand,through the further revitalization of domestic investment and domestic consumption to economic growth.To expand domestic demand,the most important is to enlarge a dweller to consume demand. Objectively speaking Chinese to social retail sales of commodities by the performance of the residents’ consumption demand growth is not very low,to further expand the consumption policy space where? Through the survey found that the current resident consumption demand,consumption of our country dweller expands to restrict the most fundamental factor lies in the low income and lack of coverage.Therefore,to enlarge a dweller to consume the policy choice,first of all is to improve laborer and the ordinary income,a thorough grasp of labor income accounted for the proportion of national income and dweller income accounted for the proportion of national income distribution pattern. Not only that,but also adjust the structure of income distribution,so that more income to the marginal propensity to consume higher rural residents,young people and city middle and lower income class,and thus the formation of more effective consumer demand. We need to accelerate the establishment of wages and prices,GDP growth mechanism,and strict minimum wage legislation and the minimum living security standard,ensure labor income and dweller income accounted for the proportion of national income rise stage by stage.Secondly,to speed up the improvement of the unemployment insurance,endowment insurance,cooperative medical system construction,and strive to achieve full coverage of city and rural residents,and enhance consumer confidence in the majority of urban residents. At the same time,to further optimize consumption environment,severely crack down on fake and shoddy behavior,the development of consumer credit,fully mobilize the enthusiasm of resident consumption.To expand domestic demand,the most direct and effective method for expanding the domestic investment demand,especially the revitalization of private investment. Over the years,the high speed of investment in China’s economic growth has been rapid growth in the major pusher. This both with our high savings and capital formation rate investment conditions,with the dominant of our country government investment and financing system. With the help of this condition and system,not only the developed and complete transportation,communications and other infrastructure,and to advance a city to change with industrialized process,shorten and industrialization and city to the gap between countries. The current expansion of domestic demand,still want to rely on the investment demand continues to expand. But in the implementation of the “four trillion” drive of investment plan based on new investment drive,put forth effort where,need to carefully choose. The last round of investment focus is “iron (Road),male (Road),machine (field)” and other transportation infrastructure,suggested that a new round of investment should focus on selection of security housing and water conservancy facilities.The source of investment,which requires the government to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy,give full play to the government investment lead and the multiplier effect,but more importantly,through the innovation of policy,utmost ground arouses the enthusiasm of private investment. For this,need to completely remove restricts civilian investment policy “glass door” and “spring”,and increase the folk capital and the small and medium-sized enterprise tax cuts and support efforts,both to allow private capital to enter railroad,extensive energy,finance,municipal public utilities monopoly,let civilian capital in these areas stay,live under.
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March 19th, 2012
Button NEWThe global economy double dip arrival seems to have become an inevitable.Beijing time on the evening of September 20th,the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report,cut again in the United States economy is expected to grow,will the United States this year and next year’s economic growth rate of 2.5% and 2.7% respectively from the lower to 1.5% and 1.8% to 1 percentage points,reductions. This is the third time this year by the United States of America today bright two years economic growth expectations,and this is one of the largest reductions.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThis of course is not the final result,continued down the possibility still exists. In fact,now the euro-zone,other economies have lost the momentum,and real economic growth but also the “zero” in the vicinity of struggle. Like the IMF in the same report to remind: if developed countries financial improvements at the expense of disposable income for the price,then to Europe and the United States economy may fall into stagnation.To the United States,if the tax cuts and the unemployment assistance program in the United States was not postponed,American economic growth will severely slowed down; at the same time,if the medium-term fiscal policy to improve an implement,the ordinary family and traders on the outlook for the economy to hold a pessimistic attitude,increase the deposit rate,the result is that economic growth is likely to face a “lost in ten years”.This is not alarmist — in addition to IMF debt restructuring,people don’t see pull Europe economic growth momentum. Investment? This requires clear industrial policy,as well as the anticipated earnings prospects. Consumption? This requires the growth of national income,social security unemployment decreased,full. Exit? This requires a strong external demand and its own “export” abundant.The three carriages which are strong? Can not see. To see is negative,for example: fiscal austerity must reduce the social security expenditure; government is an emergency debt problems,unable to take into account the long-term industrial development; national income was the historical debt,not only reduce the consumption,and increase savings.Economic growth there will always be people who are willing to spend money not? But Europe and the United States government money spent,consumers have no money to spend,the enterprise is not willing to spend money now. Who will promote economic growth? Therefore,economy stagnation,recession only one step away.Besides China,joined the WTO,and has fulfilled all the promises,Chinese economy has been impossible to “stand on one’s own”. Prior to 2008,overheat of round of economy,is not the developed economies of excessive consumption of natural product? However,now China is afraid very difficult to expect the European economic recovery,but “how to avoid a recession in the US and Europe to China economy to slump dragged”.This of course need to rely on the domestic economy strong. Unfortunately,as the total demand policy monetary policy is by tightening harshly suppressed demand in china. Today the predicament of medium and small businesses is the real proof.Somebody thinks,China to reverse the economic structure,change the mode of growth,is bound to pay a certain price,and followed the traditional mode of production of small and medium-sized enterprises is existence should be eliminated capacity.Blunder. The first,”the old go to” easy,”new” easier said than done. Simply by removing the old,change the “old proportion” relationship is transition? The “numbers game” will make Chinese economy appears “the old to the new,not to” temporary shortage. When that happens,China is miserable.Second,what is the “new”? To have a look of polysilicon,is a new “export processing”? Is a new “backward production capacity”? What we need is to improve traditional industry efficiency,improve the industrial chainTensionThe advantages of traditional industries,to obtain more profits,rather than a simple “destroy the old and establish the new”.Third,we must grasp the rhythm and speed of transformation,or temporary shortage is most prone to crisis breakthrough,must need to accept the lessons from japan.”Leave Europe Day” has come,how should China?Department of CommerceData have shown that,Chinese exports to Europe and the US growth rate is declining. But this does not necessarily mean the general consumer goods exports would decline,because the more serious crisis,Europe and the United States to China in the low-end consumer goods import demand may tend to rise. But in any case,China must rely more on domestic demand for economic growth,which will be the next 10 years,we can do without.Finally,we must remind the attention of monetary contraction intensity,if wait for large entity economic bankruptcy before turning,the Chinese economy will be like Japan,fall into the liquidity trap.
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March 19th, 2012
“China Economic Weekly” commentatorAll the way to the usury mess without accidentally have jumped into the digging his own grave. Media reports,recently,Wenzhou and other places in North Jiangsu,frequent usury crashes,one of the most extreme person (such as a so-called “everybody lending” Jiangsu Sihong “) and even villagers buried alive on the line”,”fill hot water after debt” shocking scenes.Fortunately,these examples are different regions,there is no trigger systematic risk. Nonetheless,in view of China’s financial ecological environment,as well as the rapid changes in the economic society,ever was regarded as “Jiexuanzhiji” underground finance has been unable to regard as unimportant,let it ride inevitable cause eave endless troubles.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyUnregulated underground finance what has reached what scale,is still a muddled account,professional institutions,scholars through research conclusions broad distribution in 1 ~ 2 trillion trillion yuan range. For this,our view is,compared to these is too big to disturbing static data,the need for vigilance against underground finance the rapid expansion of the long-term trend,and driving the long-term trend of the deep mechanism.The birth of usury of chaos is one of the important reasons is of course the decades of consistent system of financial regulation. Because of this control,on one hand,factitious aggravate the financial supply and demand do not match,so as to stimulate borrowing is active with each passing day; on the other hand,the monopoly of financial resources,and then diverted underground financial survival space,this kind of management train of thought of path dependence has been able to cure.Of course,should be recognized,at least in the past a very long period of time,highly regulated one “longitudinal” and “close” subtle hold the fragile balance,however,this fragile balance ultimately difficult to maintain for a long time,the reason is as follows:One,since 2002,in the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves which led to the foundation of a large amount of currency made the situation,China has basically prevent excess liquidity may produce severe impact,besides relying on balance once high amounted to nearly 5 yuan.Central bankThe bill,as well as the long-term to maintain in 10% above the high rate of deposit reserve,truly worthy residual mobility “reservoir” investment target just real estate.However,constantly increased the real estate regulation are forced to find funds to his way,and the short term sudden investment orientation of major change,in terms of China’s long-standing bank deposits of negative interest rates,and stock dividend rate of return even far from the bank deposit interest compounded under the big background,easily lead to not pay “inflation tax” individual investors to join sharks game.Secondly,long trapped in the small and medium enterprises credit discrimination suffered hitherto unknown financial pressure,and this one disaster after another short term comes mainly from price index rises quickly,resulting in continued tightening of macroeconomic policies,as well as the RMB exchange rate to accelerate the uplink,so that its profitability worse,banks become more indifferent attitude.Hunger fund demand will stimulate extremely distorted high interest rates. Reportedly,this year Zhejiang folk leasehold interest even touch to trace nearly crazy 180%,how can such a situation,hasten benefit nature of the extracorporeal circulating capital to delight the greedy?Aftereffect of the subprime crisis in the heavy loss alert the world,from the appropriate regulatory capital flow once beyond reasonable limits,it is easy to get into the self strengthening cycle ultimately leads to system collapse. This lesson applied to China gradually shows normalization usurious mess,an obviously the conclusion,even if only in order to defend the security line,to deregulation and strengthen the supervision to the dual goals of financial reform should never be wrapped around the foot.
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March 19th, 2012
New energy utilization and development has become the world’s new economy point of growth. Due to the scarcity of resources and global climate change,new energy and low carbon economy got national height takes seriously,has become a national implementation of low carbon development goals,to achieve a resource-saving and environment-friendly society an important means.Gong ZichengChina’s new energy profilesAlong with global warming and greenhouse effect aggravate,low energy consumption,low pollution,low carbon economy become the global development trend and hotspot. Euramerican developed country already began to vigorously promote the high efficiency,low emission of low carbon revolution,develop the low carbon technology,undertook the adjustment of industrial policy,to seize the initiative. Our country is in the critical stage of industrialization,so the low carbon economy in China has both the pressure and challenges.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyAt present,the development of new energy industry focus is mainly reflected in four areas,with solar energy,wind energy,nuclear energy and biological energy as the representative of the renewable resources,new energy development accords with the direction of sustainable development. Plan to 2011 new energy power generation of renewable energy accounted for 10%,the national renewable energy consumption reached 3 tons of standard coal rate. Among them,the total hydropower installed capacity achieves 190000000 kilowatt,wind power installed capacity reached 10000000 kilowatts,biomass power generation installed capacity reached 5500000 kilowatts,solar power generation to reach a total capacity of 300000 kilowatts. Rate of consumption reached 19000000000 cubic meters of gas,solar water heater heat collection area reached 150000000 square meters,increased non-grain raw material fuel ethanol consumption of 2000000 tons of biodiesel rate,rate of consumption reached 200000 tons.New energy development prospectWe present the challenge is to improve the efficiency of energy use and development of renewable energy investment on earth. At present our country is optimistic about the low carbon industry. Low carbon economy is a new mode of economic development occurs and the idea of sustainable development and resource saving,environment friendly society requirements are consistent with current occurs to the implementation of the energy conservation and emission reduction and circular economy also has close ties with. Understanding of low carbon economy needs to hold three important characteristics of the most comprehensive sales 1. Low carbon economy is not a simple technical or economic problem occurs but a relates to economy,society,environment system of integrated problem. From the first level to understand the dead low carbon economy means that economic development and greenhouse gas emission of the relationship between “unhook” I GDP growth rate is higher than the growth of greenhouse gas emissions rate occurs stable economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions to zero growth or even reduce; from second aspects I low carbon economy establishment is a in the promotion of development under the premise of solving the problem of climate change of the basic train of thought dead and simple energy saving and emission reduction of different train of thought of the dead it emphasizes the development and reduction of the binding occurs on low carbon occurs in development. Through the improvement of the economic development and consumption ways to reduce energy demand and discharge occurs not to lower the quality of life and economic growth at the expense of low carbon; from third aspects I low carbon economy but also related to the development of human rights and social justice issues. Because almost all human production and consumption activities are dependent in part on the energy I generate corresponding greenhouse gas emission occurs in different countries due to different development levels the dead face development potential and space to design different reduction occurs reasonable,can be recognized by the international community in carbon emissions scheme I must from social justice and human the sustainable development point of view. (2) strategic. The impact of climate change on human development is dead long. Low carbon economy of energy consumption,the way of economic development and the human way of life for a new change occurs is the human to adjust their activities,adapted to the ecological system of the earth’s long-term strategic choice rather than a matter of expediency of the moment I. And the 3 global. The global climate system as a whole I the effects of climate change is global occurs involving human common future occurs beyond sovereignty country occurs any country cannot alone to face the serious challenge of global climate change occurs in low carbon development need for global partnership.The new energy economy development obstaclesAlthough the new energy industry has be richly endowed by nature the macroscopical environment and resource advantages,has broad market space and enough funds for the project,but in the new energy projects in the operation of the status quo is not optimistic,because the new energy development is facing the following shortcomings and obstacles:1 information disorder. New energy talent shortage is to restrict the biggest obstacle to industrial development. Differ with other industry,new energy industry not only advanced technology talents shortage,more important is compound model talent is insufficient,the technology,capital,market information barrier between the three. Most of the new energy project. The key technology is not the major technological innovations,but the realization of the transformation of scientific and technological achievements,which is a mature technology applied to real life,according to local resources and environmental characteristics of the development of practical new energy products and services. Therefore,the key to success of the project is technology,capital,market three respects of effective communication. But the new energy development in a short time,skilled person does not understand the investment,understand the market,understand the market investors do not understand do not know a technique,which originally needs close together in technology,capital and market relations among the three fracture,leading to low efficiency,blind investment project.2 technical barriers. From long-term look,new energy project development must depend on the breakthrough. At present the biggest technical barriers are not technical result is less,but the difficulty in the prior art is changed into the product,basic technology is too low. Mainly displays in: projects exist in the system technology matching disorder,lower efficiency,is not conducive to system optimization. New energy project is mainly mature new energy into the utility model,this process involves many fields,need many discipline knowledge,only the technology closely,to research and development of practical and efficient new energy products. While the new energy fields span is wide,technical communication difficulty big,system matching performance is poor. New energy projects in the basic techniques of low popularity,project investment,promotion of technical barriers. As in the previous years,jump on the bandwagon “around the water into oil”,”a multitude of names of emulsified diesel oil” and other new energy project scheme,can attract a lot of risk capital blindly joining. These be flashy without substance of new energy project failure caused many venture capital for new energy skeptical,even at a distance. Technical barriers have already restricted the venture capital to enter a new field of energy,venture capital for new energy projects’ attitudes toward two extremes: either the blind superstition,or completely excluded.3 resource obstacle. New energy project by making use of the wind energy,solar energy,tidal energy and biological energy resources although has renewability,but the development of these energy sources,but by the corresponding resources and conditions,such as the natural climate condition,condition of mineral products resource,land resource conditions. As wind power projects must be selected in the wind resource-rich coastal or western area,solar power generation project investment in the sunshine time is long,sunny area with higher efficiency,tidal energy is must establish in tide fall large bay. In addition,in the current new energy utilization and conversion rate is low,large scale new energy projects need large amounts of land. Such as solar power need large area site access to solar energy,wind power generation field covers an area of 1000 mus of above scale at every turn,creatures need large area to crop land,nuclear location is more complex.The development of new energy is proposed1 new energy development should reflect the overall level and. New energy and the biggest one of the particularities in its to the future in many fields have a significant effect,therefore,its planning and development must embody a certain level of. One is to deal with new energy and conventional energy substitution. The current energy crisis that countries must reduce dependence on fossil fuels,new energy development means that on conventional energy saving. It is important to note,the old and the new the sources of energy to replace the strength and speed must be combined with our current and future economic strength,technology level,environmental requirements,resources,energy security and cost advantage and other factors weigh. Two is a new energy development should be the economic security and military security into consideration. The development of new energy sources in the civilian and military and other special areas combined,not only can improve the development and utilization of new energy efficiency,but also can make the development of new energy sources more forward-looking,and finally make our country is in economic and military fields occupying strategic commanding elevation. The three is to coordinate the new energy and related industries. Through the development of new energy sources,leading power,IT,construction industry,automobile industry,new material industry,communication industry and other industries a major transformation and depth of fission,and created a series ofEmerging industryAnd the modern way of production.2 to encourage the promotion of energy-saving technology,improve energy utilization efficiency. Although China’s hydropower and solar energy products in the international market have a certain competitiveness in the market,but as a result of new energy technology is a kind of high technology,coupled with the resources to disperse and so on,in the existing technology level,our country other than hydropower and solar energy other than the new energy development and utilization cost is very high,in the industry and the development of policy protection system also has certain difference,policy lagging. Including our country,majority of the developing country exists generally low efficiency of energy utilization efficiency of energy saving problem,there is still much room for improvement,we should draw lessons from abroad has been the development of a complete new energy and energy saving policy system,increase the economic incentive strength,formed to support China’s new energy sustainable development persistent effect mechanism,promote the development of new energy saving technology.3 adjusting industrial structure,develop new economic growth areas. In recent years,China’s new energy industry development is rapidder,but the overall market share is still small,and new energy products are export-oriented,in the global economic downturn,China should learn from the American energy reform train of thought,stimulate the domestic industrial restructuring,promoting the construction of new energy. China and the United States as the world’s largest developing country and developed country,is not only the world’s two largest emitter of greenhouse gases,but also faces serious dependence on foreign energy state. To deal with the financial crisis,stimulating economic growth,both countries issued a huge economic stimulus plan,the United States attempted to new energy revolution to stimulate the economy,create jobs,and long term solution to energy efficiency. Our country to be murky situation,from the four trillion investment,transfer a portion of funds as a support for new energy industry development funds. With the transition of our country economy and upgrade of industry step by step,new energy and related industries will bring our country economy high speed development.4 strengthening international exchange. Developed countries such as Europe and America have completed industrial revolution,also took the lead in the development of new energy economy,we should learn from them,master advanced technology of new energy resources,in response to the next round of the energy crisis in the initiative.From the new energy economy development and the obstacle that face is not difficult to see that,China’s new energy economy development key is not inadequate project funding and the presence of major technical problems,but to increase new energy basic knowledge and technology of new energy industry,cultivate compound talents. The government in the new energy economy development should is somewhat do not be somewhat,suit one’s measures to local conditions,in the light of its general trend of new energy projects.And the author unit sales Renmin University of China School of Economics
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March 19th, 2012
This year is our country implementation”Twelfth Five-Year Plan”The first year of the program. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” to the scientific development as the theme,in order to speed up the transformation of economic development as the main line,further defined the future five years in China’s economic and social development and the main goal of policy guidance,is a guide to the people of all our ethnic groups advance comparatively well-off construction in the round of the new process is a programmatic document guiding,we carry out the energy law research and exchange platform file. How to understand and implement the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” in the new situation,strengthening the legal construction of energy,we need to consider and study the important issues.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyYe RongsiConstruction of stable,economy,clean,sustainable energy supply and service system,is the “12th Five-Year Plan” one of core contentThe “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” are of considerable length relates to energy problem,directly speaks of “energy” and “coal”,”power”,”gas”,”nuclear power”,”energy saving” and other words it hundreds of office. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” in the eleventh chapter about energy development and utilization,and the sixth is “green development,building a resource-saving,environment-friendly society” of most of the contents,especially related to energy saving and emission reduction,climate change and other part basically is about energy. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is to set the restriction of resource and environment index 7,involving energy accounted for half of. Through the study of “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”,personal experience,China as the world’s largest developing countries in the rapid development,to construct stability,economic,clean,sustainable energy supply and service system the dead safeguard economy society lasts,stable,healthy development,energy is essential. I read last October by the Council of Europe “energy 2020: competition,sustainable and secure energy strategy”,have feeling very much,which states that: the energy challenge is the EU must face the greatest test. Take decades to our energy system leads to more stable and sustainable way. Developed countries in the European Union,China is even more so. To solve the energy problem of our country,need exert oneself to do “five piece”,namely “saving utilization of a piece,the effective development of a piece of (i.e.,production of the same amount of energy if the recovery increase the number of equivalent left a resources to offspring),improve the efficiency of a block,the import of resources complement of a block demand management,cut a piece of the dead” is actually to the supply side,in addition to demand side to do subtraction,adjusting energy structure,multiple clean development and reasonable control of the total energy consumption,aggrandizement is energy-saving fall bad news,the protection ecological enviroment,always adhere to the reform of the system,adhere to scientific and technological innovation to promote the development and lead the development of.Energy law is to carry out fulfil “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” due justice and main taskThe nature of rule by law is “law,law,law enforcement must be strict,prosecuted”. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” requirements “comprehensively promote the construction of legal system to fully implement the basic strategy of governing the country according to law occurs,adhere to scientific legislation,democratic legislation,perfection of socialism with Chinese characteristicsLawSystem.” The energy legal system is one of the small branches,but also with other department legislation is lagging behind compared to the task is very onerous,legislation,law enforcement,judicial and law at the same time,also need to strengthen the comprehensive popularization. Although in the past 30 years,energy legislation in the area of faster,notable achievements,the energy law system preliminary build,but,as the legal system of energy based — “energy law” has not been submitted to the NPC or people’s Congress Standing Committee,”power law”,”coal law” revised ten years without repair.,some supporting regulations establishment and revision is not just as one wishes,oil and gas and nuclear energy law is deficient. Based on the energy dependence on resources,energy transformation,energy structure optimization,energy product substitutability features for China s economic development mode is far-reaching,should cogent advance whole energy system toward the green,low carbon direction change,need to enact comprehensive,fundamental “energy law”. It has been implemented in the “coal law”,”power law”,”renewable energy law”,”energy conservation law”,”petroleum and natural gas pipeline protection law” and other laws as well as the single “mineral resources law”,”water law” and other relevant laws,can not solve the energy field of the comprehensive,fundamental and strategic major problem. “Energy law” does not publish,energy strategic planning,structural adjustment,energy regulation,energy storage,energy,rural energy and emergency energy reform and so on can. This is the “power law”,”coal law” and other laws to revise down an important reason. According to reports,the NPC Standing Committee is studying the drafting of China’s climate change response method,which is very important,but it is also a good thing. The individual thinks,if can accelerate the “energy law” from legislation and revision of existing resources and pollution prevention and control law of law,establish the legal system to deal with climate change,may be more conducive to saving resources and human resources legislation. Due to changes in climate and fossil energy consumption should be closely related,”energy law” as an important climate change law,to speed up the process,and strive for the early stage. These years,the cause of energy especially electric power developed very quickly,but the so-called”Electricity shortage”,” oily barren “,” gas shortage “,almost every year now,tell year after year,coal,electric two industries” top-up “a few years be inextricably involved,while production capacity idle,one side is short of coal to pay electricity. From the deep reason analysis,a periodically recurring and large energy “shortage” problem,the key must arrange with the system,there must be a system not suitable,mechanism,legal system is the problem of poor. Must administer thoroughly,more heavy. This is an important aspect of the system should be perfected and normative innovation,adhere to the top-level design,adhere to the reform and development of system mechanism as a driving force,to perfect the legal system to protect,or will have little effect.The “12th Five-Year Plan” some important principles and policies should become the important source of energy legal systemThe “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is China’s highest authority as the national legislature passed by the National People’s Congress,say from particular significance,is a legal properties file. According to Marx’s law,law is made by the state and recognized,reflecting the will of the state,the rights and obligations as the main content,by the state to its enforced social behavior norm. From the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” the formulation authority authority and reflected the will of the state and other aspects,”Twelfth Five-Year Plan” should have a similar legal characteristics of the parts,but in the strict sense,especially from the content characteristic and force protection point of view,does not have all the characteristics of law,thus the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is not a law,but also on the stability and also the law have a big difference. In accordance with the requirements of building a socialist country ruled by law,if we can make a “national economic and social development five years planning law” clearly its legal status,legal effect,develop procedures,the range of adjustment,main types of rights and duties of supervision and inspection,and legal responsibilities of provisions,may make it has more strong law safeguard. The individual thinks,”Twelfth Five-Year Plan” in a lot of good policy and system,especially after the “fifteen” period and “eleven five” period of practice has proved very effective policy and system should become the important source of energy legislation,as far as possible,let them law,stabilization. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” in about “adhere to conservation priorities,based on domestic,pluralistic development,protect environment,strengthen the international cooperation of mutual benefit,adjust optimize structure of the sources of energy,construction safety,stable,economy,clean modern energy industry system” strategic orientation representations in the energy law shall carry out the necessary provisions; “12th Five – Year Plan” some of the important binding targets,such as non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption,reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP amplitude,carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP amplitude is reduced and the total discharge of major pollutants reduction in energy law should have corresponding regulations. Energy law is the implementation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” an important guaranteeThe law is to adjust people’s behavior or social norms,it is normative,stability and coercive force of state backing to do,make it has the very strong protection function. In accordance with the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” requirement,the control energy of our country the current situation of legal construction,people think we in many aspects of the lack of legal norms of the support and guarantee. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” proposed in some important aspects concerning energy,especially “promote energy production and utilization mode change” this chapter of a lot of content,such as hydropower,nuclear power,the development of natural gas and high carbon low carbon utilization etc law more; in some of the potential field of clean energy,such as coal gas and coal seam gas,unconventional natural gas development and utilization,as well as distributed energy supply system,a comprehensive national energy base construction,oil reserve,rural energy,smart grid,carbon emissions trading in many aspects,basically rely on the policy of “red head” files without law andAdministrative regulationsTo follow,some even is blank,be badly in need of strengthening the legislation research,formulate correspondingLaws and regulations. I am here to mention about the safety of nuclear power. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” requirements “on the basis of ensuring safety in high efficiency the development of nuclear power”. Philosophically speaking,there is no absolute safety,only for more safety,the safety. Murphy’s Law (Murphy “sLaw) tells us,if something bad happen,no matter this possibility is so small,it would happen,and caused the maximum possible loss. When human beings can change the natural phenomena,that we have to change ourselves,with their one’s ability and cleverness to cope,lessons learned,strive for further improvement. In March this year,the Japanese nuclear power station accident caused the disaster shocked the world,there are a few national then decided to completely abandon nuclear power,the nuclear power development in China has brought new challenges and impact. For the absolute safety of nuclear power is not realistic,unless no nuclear power. But even the countries and regions to nuclear power,and neighbors and nuclear power is not absolute security. For our country,considering that the energy demand and energy structure irrationality of boundary conditions,to achieve non fossil energy in the 2020 energy consumption ratio reached 15% and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP lower than in 2005 more than 45% objectives,leaving the development of nuclear power are afraid to do. The implementation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” spirit,adhere to prudent assessment,safety first,high standard,strengthening the monitoring of nuclear energy development,a sound legal system is the most realistic choice. At present our country legal system has not been formed concerning nuclear energy,development and utilization of nuclear energy and security supervision system are scattered in the administrative regulations and departmental rules,the effectiveness difference. In order to achieve the safe development of nuclear power,need to accelerate the development of “the Atomic Energy Act” or “civilian nuclear energy law”. A common concern of the international community’s nuclear third party liability laws,we still belongs to blank,long-term since only basis general office of the State Council Concerning the one act,this situation should change as soon as possible.(the writer of China Law Society Energy Law Research Association)
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March 19th, 2012
Recently,about supervision on VIE (variable interest entities) policy changes have been reported,making this form in the United States listed Chinese company share price drops considerably.VIE FASB FIN 46 provisions from the United States,it is a kind of enterprise structure,with the agreement (contract) model replaced the common equity model. As we know,the modern enterprise is based on the property right management,equity is the more common form,have much equity will have much business,profit and risk control. But VIE is quite unique,it is with the protocol control instead of equity capital,it will share with those rights behind “to come”,but in the form of equity (or equity deficiency appears out of state). Control protocol on foreign investors will be the asset of the enterprise,operating power,profit sharing,shareholders’ voting into control.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe United States appear to this Agreement replaces the equity of corporate governance models,originally applied to special enterprise. For example,some charitable enterprises,but the Americans will this special structure for “excessive debt stripping” above,A enterprise’s debt to VIE B,the A enterprise looks very “beautiful”,originally VIE is not incorporated into the report. Enron’s “abuse of fraud” master,when the ride are smashed,the United States regulators bring VIE into the table,convenient regulation.VIE this shift convenient Chinese enterprises overseas investment and market to the United States,first it circumvents the Chinese industrial policy restrictions on foreign investment,because on the surface or the domestic people hold equity. Secondly,the United States recognized the market and corporate governance structure,so it becomes the foreign capital to enter all sorts of industry the most fashionable structure. The Chinese government now clearly wanted to “manage”,one of the reasons is the foreign even in times of financial crisis are not willing to accept China capital M & A and some industry in China,and obviously “too loose and polite”,soDepartment of CommerceIn August 25th the introduction of “acquisition of domestic enterprises by foreign investors security review system requirements” Ninth basically determined the VIE will be “rectification”.VIE may not be completely abolished,otherwise it will be a great upheaval,as some state-owned oil giant VIE structure is through the market to the United States,it is not only the baidu or Sina IT enterprise. Profit of state-owned assets with the VIE also has a “bundle”. However,VIE is not IT analysts said “sunshine”,which means that the VIE can complete the transition to stock status,industrial policy restrictions were abolished,foreign investment in VIE real holding 60% right then shares will also be 60%.Can foreknow,”punish” would be “an eclectic approach”. If the VIE control in 60%,then in the renovation of its equity return to such as the 49% line,the 11% rights or “Redemption” or into other financial structure,such as a bond. In the next incremental stock or in diluted. In some sense,”punish” does provide a weakened outside investors profit opportunity,calculatingMa YunUsing this “punish” soaked by. However,this does not mean that foreign capital without any means to the game,as they will be in the new VIE inside to increase the variety of “price”,such as the event of policy “punish”,then it will have the new compensation,or improve the domestic agent collateral level,problems can be “confiscated”. Outside investors will not be fold one’s hands and await the game player,from dynamic view,the final cost will be transferred to domestic entrepreneurs. It should also Stigler’s words “industrial policy will hurt domestic rather than foreign”.
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March 19th, 2012
Page first: European debt crisis has continued to deteriorate trendPage second: consumer demand fluctuations in general is relatively stableAuthor Le Jiachun author is economics doctorIn August CPI data showed that the epicycle inflation inflection point has emerged,the market is most concerned about is the growth of China’s economy continues to slow,especially in August PMI data in the new export orders index dropped considerably,predict the future export growth will be slowing down one of the main factors of influence. Thus,the overseas economic situation changes dramatically,or become to affect the future of Chinese macroscopical economic policy adjust moderately important observation index of.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe recently released the main economic data in August,the Chinese three big demand more stable performance. First of all,from consumption demand situation,in August the total retail sales of social consumer goods grew 17%,annulus comparing grows 1.36%,indicating that the current consumer demand growth is relatively stable. Secondly,from the investment demand situation,1-8 fixed investment grew 25%,chain fell 0.4 percentage points,of which real estate investment grew 33.2%,investment demand is small fall after a rise steadily trend. Once again,from the net export demand,import and export year-on-year growth of 27.1%,of which 24.5% export growth,import growth of 30.2%,to achieve monthly trade surplus of $17760000000,display the current net export demand remains relatively strong,only faster growth in imports and trade surplus dropped by a big margin is attract sb.’s attention. The economic situation is basically consistent with China’s current macroeconomic targets.Nevertheless,the current European debt crisis has continued to deteriorate the trend alarming,cause market expectations developed economies economic growth will slow down significantly. For example,IMF substantially lower on the United States GDP growth this year is expected to the United States,is expected to 2011 GDP growth of 1.5%; at the same time also lowered the eurozone this year GDP growth expectations,expect the eurozone in 2011 GDP growth of 1.6%. Europe and the United States by a slowdown in economic growth,this year’s global economic growth forecast to 4%. Overseas economic situation is not optimistic,the future will change uncertainty,certainly will influence China’s future economic growth situation,the signal can be obtained from the August PMI data to be reflected in. For example,in PMI August new export orders index for 48.3%,than going up the month fell 2.1 percentage points,the index has become a central PMI index than the largest decline subentry index. Thus,raising fears about the future of China’s export growth will come down significantly,and dragged down economic growth.From the empirical data analysis,the PMI index and the new export orders index volatility has certain relation,is almost synchronous change trend,the latter to fall more than the former,but the new export orders index and export growth there are certain “time lag” phenomenon,export growth than the new export orders index “” about 4-5 month lag. This observation,if the PMI data in the new export orders index downward trend once established (the best observation for 2 months before and after the Spring Festival),then the next year export growth is likely to come down significantly,which will increase the Chinese economic growth slowdown,worthy of attention.
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March 19th, 2012
Tian LiWith some European sovereign bonds and agency bonds was again relegated,originally contained a European debt crisis once again become the focus of attention. BecauseDavosEconomic Forum was held last week in China Dalian,therefore this forum is one of the important contents about the European debt crisis will spread out. But unlike in the past,the people did not emphasize EuropeCentral bankAnd the euro zone economy developed country aid liability,but focused on China,therefore,called on China to rescue the debt and then into the European debt crisis in the process of new topic.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe things are so strange,when western countries don’t need you,what are you doing everything wrong,you need to make every attempt to lure you when,also occasionally called “the responsibility of powers”,seems to help him is the only way which must be passed you become big country,people really make me on the spot. In China,maybe the country to revitalize the complex dense,each having such opportunity is always some palpitating with excitement eager to do sth.. But wait,rescue of European debt crisis such a big thing,not weigh the advantages and disadvantages and can not be.Most of domestic scholars this fairly cool,but opposition is very clearly,summed up there are two reasons: one is the save,can draw fire against oneself? Two is the European debt crisis if is a bottomless pit,save do not save? These views are on,all right. But in the factor analysis ignored another invisible but there may be more serious factors: International Monetary order.Current international monetary system is the dollar leading,other currencies,can call an international currency,and the dollar is not. Early in the euro before appearing,in the world economic affairs summon wind and call for rain Japan have illusions about the yen boosted to $and racing together bridle to bridle position,but in the end they found,people on the dollar interest far outweigh the yen,even to the yen,also must through the dollar yen to hedge risks,it is US dollars leading international monetary system “mini edition”. So the Japanese later abandoned this idea,to later aborted Asian dollar. Although the euro to make up,but only after a dozen years,could shake their dollars,first out of the question.Revisit these,no outside or to emphasize a point,regardless of whether or not to accept the fact of our feelings,but accepts the dominance of the US dollar,which is also the foreign exchange reserves in dollars is overwhelming reason. China is no exception,the dollar assets and the total reserves of more than 60%. In this sense,The debt crisisThan the European debt crisis is more Chinese is more worthy of our attention,rack one’s brains to ponder over countermeasure.Not only that,although the euro and yen internationalization of the currency weakness against the dominance of the US dollar,but is a so-called shift,in the international monetary system,any strengthening currencies other than the US dollar is tantamount to short the dollar,and this is what we should pay attention to. Thus,if we really come to the rescue of European debt crisis,will fall into the “dilemma” situation,on one hand,as the debt crisis: the roots in the launch of the euro on the mechanism,as long as you do not change the release mechanism,for any debt act can only be of no avail,attempt an ineffective solution,it is a typical Jun,the fix is to ask for trouble. On the other hand,as I have more than once said,the dollar is hateful (of course refers to all kinds of harm others to benefit oneself around dollar interest policy and means),but now cannot abandon it. Rescue of European debt,short the dollar,US dollar assets so much how to do?More than this,rescue the debt must hold euros,due to the euro is not the dominant currency,so these assets itself is neither necessary risk hedge,but no dominant currency specific wealth functions. The last Euro and dollar link more closely,the euro malpractice did not fully reflected,now the euro short board (no hedge or a wealth effect) has been completely unmasked. In this case the debt relief,our own interests and how to guarantee?In addition to the above these problems,I have another more difficult worries,is a conspiracy theory. The reason that “hard to say”,for two reasons: one is that there is no evidence,it is difficult to form a conclusion,I have no evidence that opposed; two is not my view of science,I never think like a conspiracy theory that things should not be academic circles study. It also can be said out,due to the same two: no evidence for the formation of the conclusion,but may not affect the formation of speculation; conspiracy theory is not academic,but may not affect from the academic perspective.Let us first from the debt crisis to start,facing us debt crisis,Americans even improve government debt ceiling such actions can want to come out,so we could not exclude the Americans attempted by the depreciation of the dollar to reduce the burden of debt and the possibility of. Early in the Libya crisis in the beginning I wonder why,Americans give it has always attached great importance to the origin of petroleum competition? To know the oil but dollar important standard body,a dollar for a few hedge assets. All the United States to petroliferous country control will make the dollar strengthened,but this time the United States how generous Libya dominance over to the debt crisis in Europe? No matter how the subjective purpose,this move the objective effect is the dollar index down.But this decline is not intense,at least to reduce U.S. debt it be of little pressure. Also at this time,the United States of America rating agencies to improve the European debt credit rating,this case if China bailed out the debt (will be in the hands of a considerable part of dollar assets replacement into euros) to the United States,in Europe are likely to is a good thing,but we will suffer serious loss of assets,who came to our rescue.? The responsibility of powers cannot be so cost as the premise.Despite speculation forever is not the conclusion,it may help us to see clearly the essence. In any case,Chinese should put their things well,is the best interpretation of the power and responsibility.(the writer of Harbin University of Commerce Institute of Finance Financial Engineering Research Institute)
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March 19th, 2012
From a variety of forecasting data,double dip recession of global economy is probably small probability scenarios. More objective,more can be expected probability of scenario,the global economy in 2012 will have a bottom two stall process. But the most significant change is strong rise,emerging markets and developed market gradually weaken as in the past several years like that contrasts,and may even reverse trend.Process.For the global economy,the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September 20th released the latest “world economic outlook” like a swirling,gyro,true to life likeness will market the double dip recession is expected to play a doubtful label.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyAccording to the latest IMF forecast,2012,the global economy is expected to achieve 4% growth in the economy,although the growth rate and the same in 2011,and less than 5.11% in 2010,but was significantly higher in 1982 to 2011 32 years 3.35% trend growth level,and since twenty-first Century in recent 12 years,an annual increase of 3.74% levels; and the 2012 global inflation estimate of 3.66%,only less than 4.96% this year,also lower than in the past 32 years and for the last 12 years 4.02% 12.28%.Market is the most awesome place depends on,it never follow the expected development. Is higher than the potential level of economic growth and below trend inflation means that,although news reports of the ear smoked head,economic data connect a weakness,capital market stumble endlessly,the price of gold soared and market atmosphere of extreme depression has been continuously strengthened market to the recession of 2012 years is expected,but from the entity economy elements of a comprehensive change,market concerns about the double dip recession is still worthy of attention,but not exaggerated small probability. More objective,more can be expected probability of scenario is,global economy will be in 2012 or will experience a bottom two stall,and is expected to slow,gradual subsequently regain with moderate recovery.Despite being present,jittery,lumpy,but wait and see the future,at least three reasons to believe that,the global economy double dip into a double dip recession less likely: one,debt risk and financial risk has yet to appear big range linkage,resonance and infectious signs,although a few big rating agencies have lowered part of Europe and the United States large financial institutions rating,but LO spreads,such as TED spreads sensitivity index did not substantially violent wind rises,market liquidity is not obvious inhibition. Now and in the future a paragraph of period,the global economy and the subprime mortgage crisis during the biggest difference is that the sovereign debt problem,causing uncertainty widely and striking accumulation at the macroscopic level,and the subprime mortgage crisis,derivatives problem caused by the uncertainty of fuzzy and covert infections in microcosmic level. Two kinds of uncertainty of different means,illiquidity can cause financial suppression under the economic recession,but the lack of government credit will lead to fiscal stimulus weakness of economy under the spontaneous deceleration. Secondly,total factor productivity further impaired limited space. From the long-term economic growth driving force of change,global economy 2012 in stall during the two year,to some extent,is a “balanced” regression process,along with the financial system of deleveraging and fiscal consolidation is gradational advance,subprime mortgage crisis and the debt crisis of the dual impact on global economic growth potential level effect gradually,the slowdown in economic growth in the two year,it is to the new equilibrium level near the inevitable result of the double dip recession,and the arrival of science and technology,capital,population,resources and the deeper the entity economy the impact factor. At least so far,total factor productivity further glides considerably less likely. Thirdly,the global stimulus policies are not without licence can be. Growth with pressure increasing,squeezed out of the policy of the greater space. In the case of the United States,although the debt ceiling lift and sovereign rating for fiscal policy too,butObamaStill raised a $447000000000 jobs bill,this bill is expected to give the American economy in 2012 of about 1.25 percentage point boost; although core inflation over the years for the first time in 2%,the Fed still he’s really not letting this go to the day before yesterday launched a $400000000000 “reverse” operation,which is expected to give the American economy in 2012 of about 0.5 percentage point to additional stimulation.Although the double dip recession is a small probability event,but the bottom two about rate scenarios still worth attention,the fundamental reason is that the global economy double dip,is not only a universal bottom,but accompanied by a shift in the course of the game,the fierce competition of interests and external cost. 2012 really daunting place,it is unusual structural changes and the uniqueness of the individual challenges.In the latest “world economic outlook”,4% growth just bright appearance,behind which is the high growth and strong expected loss. IMF apparently lost 3 months earlier than the estimated confidence,June,IMF in 2012 global economic growth rate down 0.5 percentage points,the developed economy and the emerging market economy’s growth forecasts were lowered by 0.7 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points. This means that,after the global economic crisis mania has rebounded to an end,and the bottom is always accompanied by shares. The two bottom,the individual interests and the overall interests of not harmonious and unified,individual strategy and overall strategy industry no longer grace synchronization,an economy’s benefit maximization will inevitably bring greater external shocks,and will lead to more harmony but not sameness in 2012. It is from this sense,2012 was not a global sense of the recession years,for many shock vortex center economies,is a reef in four volt challenges,or even the crisis years.Market subtleties,is that it tends to walk on a consensus. Perhaps the most significant potential,2012 change is strong rise,emerging markets and developed market gradually weaken as in the past several years so the apparent contrast,even from the trend,the reverse changes may occur. According to the latest IMF forecast,2012,developed economies economic growth rate of 1.9%,higher than the 1.6% of the year; while the emerging market economy growth rate of 6.1%,lower than the 6.4% this year. In 2012,GDP global emerging markets than is expected to reach 49.99%,but the proportion of growth has dropped to the lowest for nearly ten years,indicates that emerging markets could drop catching rate. This structural change somehow means,the global economy will be accompanied by the bottom two emerging markets (especially China) shares the cost allocation process,this will be the biggest challenge in emerging market.Data changes in the hint and real-world game resonates. At present,the global game market is being developed and will continue through the relatively loose monetary policy,relative effective exchange rate adjustment,relative to the driving direction of public opinion three channels to emerging market share two year cost. The use of debt crisis in Europe and the United States in the current situation,the developed economies to emerging market economies exerts a relatively greater exchange rate,growth and adjusting the pressure,and by increasing global market panic for the launch of QE3 egoism and cuts loose policy environment.In 2012 years,not a recession,but challenges. Changes in turning point,the market needs a deeper thinking: the bottom two,who will reveal all the details?(the writer of doctor of finance,macroeconomic Analyst)
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March 18th, 2012
Wei JunliangOn August,Chinese foreign exchange balance rise again,almost two times the market expected: month additional 376940000000 yuan,year and chain growth respectively 71.9% and 55.1%,refresh the historical record. But behind the “hot money” flow reversal and blowout.In practice,the new foreign exchange can be attributed to the trade surplus,the entry of foreign direct investment (FDI) and hot money part three,August trade surplus of $17760000000,with the chain of both down,especially chain dropped sharply in 43.6%,at the same time FDI for $8450000000 last month,with roughly flat,maintain the basic stability. A simple calculation,August foreign exchange the caliber of the hot money inflows amounted to 208990000000 yuan,an increase of 2.7 times last month,but also a net outflow of 37420000000 yuan.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storySee the historical data,usually in August,hot money flows into smaller,and in 2006 to 2009 4 years continuously appeared net outflow. Of course,the hot money has also been restricted estimation of average exchange rate. RMB against the U.S. dollar in August the average exchange rate for 6.409,an appreciation of 5.6% ring growth of 0.8%,annulus comparing rises,the currency reform since the resumption of high. According to the same period last year and last month’s average exchange rate estimation,the hot money is approximately 207620000000 and 199010000000 yuan,differ not quite,visible,effect of foreign exchange limited.In the developed market economy anabiosises waves again,the European debt crisis signs of danger appearing everywhere and emerging market tightening cycle to an end,”hot money” swarming to the East again,except the Chinese economy steady basic side,fed disguised launch the third round of quantitative easing the dollar assets hedging function decline,should be the biggest power.Although the core of the United States in August CPI growth has hit 2% goals the cap,but due to the weak economic recovery,together with the newly released a new $447000000000 stimulus plan,the Fed,in last two days before the interest rate meeting scheduled launch of the QE3 flexible edition,namely by “long buy short selling” to extend the Treasury position duration,in order to drive interest rates down. The so-called “reverse” monetary policy drive,despite the limited size,but still cause certain impact on the confidence of the market. The dollar exchange rate or will continue to pressure,rising inflation will also point the day and await for it. Although the dollar as the main global hedge asset status of short-term difficult to shake,but in emerging markets,especially China,it has become a part of the hot money right object.To look from home,stable and rapid economic growth can be expected,with inflation under control,the expected appreciation of the RMB is also of brandish do not go. In the promotion of hot money once again landed in a large-scale Chinese factors in the short term it is difficult to eliminate the situation,the author estimates,hot rolling to the east or will last one or two quarters.The new foreign exchange reserves rise again,add Chinese monetary policy variables. The new foreign exchange market liquidity is the important source of the M2,stock,foreign exchange for three minutes of the world have one. So far in 2006,the new foreign exchange variation,in addition to inflation is outside of monetary quantity (such as open market operations and the reserve rate policy) using the main decision variable. Therefore,if the new Waihuizhankuan sustained high prices,or alone on new weight reached 400000000000 yuan to close greatly,so,the reserve ratio policy may again,open market at present continuous net will also be put into history.In view of the August new credit substantially exceed market expectations,the new foreign exchange high more than expected,the money supply M2 growth fell sharply dubious. Just asCentral bankSaid,M2 may obscure the monetary policy in August. Perhaps,in late July to mid August the monetary market interest rate goes low continuously can reveal the monetary policy has been relaxed in Mount Lu. The above if true,the inflation outlook,in early September stateBureau of StatisticsThe focus control of 29 kinds of food prices were reproducing Puzhang seems to support this a secret worry. Once again the high inflation,monetary policy will inevitably forced to tighten.In addition,the hot money coming in the exchange rate issue is complicated. The current economic crisis,India,Brazil and South Africa and other countries currency against the dollar increases once reached 15% to 41%,and the largest increase was less than 7% rmb. At the end of 7,perhaps it is regulated by the influx of hot money driving,the RMB against the U.S. dollar price rise of about 1.3%,1 years period of NDF exchange rate appreciation once up to 2.1%,but after 9 month by the dollar sharply stronger suppression somewhat fall after a rise. The future appreciation of the yuan to expand,combined with external pressure of appreciation of the voice again soar,hot money may be held in China,which in turn will increase the pressure of appreciation of RMB on passive. Cannot exclude the RMB exchange rate to repeat the “hot money inflows of hot money flows — passive appreciation –” looping possibilities.(the writer of Bohai insurance funds the Department of macro and policy analyst,Ph.D. in Economics)
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March 18th, 2012
Xu YishengThe exchange rate of RMB to appreciate,it is a consensus of all walks of life expectancy. But we have to observe is that,in the dollar,emerging market currencies Pudie under the background of RMB devaluation,there will be continuous,so as to respond to the two-way fluctuations in RMB exchange rate mechanism.In 2008 September Lehman bankruptcy,the currency devaluation in response to this opportunity through two-way fluctuation mechanism,but return the decision to let the yuan pegged to the dollar,in the mechanism of lost opportunity. Now,since the 2005 start since the reform of exchange rate mechanism,the author thinks,the RMB second devaluation,the two-way fluctuations in the opportunity is coming.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyYesterday,the dollar / Renminbi NDF (NDF) a one-year contract rose to 6.3865,and exceed the rate of the RMB exchange rate is 6.3808,this means,market expectations,a year after the devaluation of the RMB rate will be close to 0.1%.The expectation of devaluation,initiated in 2005 after exchange rate reform is not the first time. First appeared in the 2008 September Lehman bankruptcy,when the rate of the RMB exchange rate at around 6.8,and a year period RMB devaluation reached 7.3 NDF supreme.Yesterday’s market Renminbi depreciation anticipated,both Chinese domestic economic downturn factors,such as the HSBC PMI index to below 50,but more important is the dollar rose sharply,and emerging market currencies pudie. Yesterday the dollar index rose above 78.5,this is the last 8 months since the high.If looking for a time key points on September 17,2008,Lehman is one of the key points,this time the key points,the author believes that August 6,2011 is the S & P for the first time in history the United States long-term debt rating cut. In the cut,at that time the market widely felt,it drives the United States Treasury market decline,decline in the dollar,however,as the debt crisis: the fermentation,amplification,quite the contrary,the United States Treasury has been pursued,the dollar index has climbed from 74 to the current more than 78.5.Now we can clearly,the United States government debt rating was lowered the greatest significance is the United States,in addition to any one country,will be sure to downgrade,especially in European countries; and if more sovereign bond rating was lowered,the United States financial markets and the dollar’s center position will be highlighted again.In this situation,emerging market currencies devaluing trend once again show the collective. From August 8,2011 to September 21st,the dollar index rose to 78.5,at the same time,emerging market currencies almost pudie. In the BRIC countries,Brazil’s currency against the dollar to 14.2% (from 1 reais 0.63 against the dollar to $0.53 against the South African rand); currency devaluation in 13.9%; the Russian currency devaluation of the ruble currency devaluation of the rupee in 9.9%; India 7.5%. Other major emerging markets,such as Mexico devaluation of the peso in 11.2%,South Korea’s currency depreciation of the won 7.2%.This is the renminbi NDF market expectation of devaluation global monetary conditions. While this 2008 September Lehman bankruptcy pattern very similar to.In 2008 to 2009 March Lehman,the Fed introduced the first round of quantitative easing,US dollar,almost all of the emerging market currencies dollar devaluation on. In 2009 March,emerging market currencies to restart the appreciation of the road,but a lot of money did not rise to before crisis.For example,BRIC countries,Russia from 2008 July to 2009 money rouble devaluation of February accumulative total of 35.6%; South Africa from 2007 November to 2008 currency Rand October accumulative total depreciation 38.8%; India from 2007 November to 2009 the rupiah March accumulative total depreciation is high up to 24.3%; the Brazil currency in 2008 August to November of four months,i.e. 36.3% depreciation. The other main emerging market currencies,such as the won from 2007 November to 2009 March,41.1% Peso devaluation,Mexico from 2008 August to 2009 March 33.8% devaluation.In 2009 March,dollar to devalue,emerging market currencies have appreciation. But only Brazil,South African rand currency currency appreciation in 2009 after approaching pre-crisis highs.Only the yuan during the financial crisis,due to the dollar,and in the aftermath of the crisis in 2010 June start appreciation,in the main emerging market currencies in the realization of the maximum of $appreciation.In 2008 the renminbi peg to return,we do not know the monetary authorities for what,why to hinder market to achieve the two-way fluctuations in RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. But in 2010 to start the Department up to now,the monetary authorities have no reason to do so. And the two-way fluctuations in RMB exchange rate opportunity,will again.(the writer of the review officer)
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March 18th, 2012
Bank of Communications(601328,SharesChief economist)TheIn the “global economic risks in wealth management logic” investment forum said,in the current circumstances,China’s macroeconomic policy especially monetary policy further tightening of the limited possibilities.The global financial market fluctuations,will be affected to a certain extent to the economic growth of china. He points out,the debt crisis in Europe is the future impact of monetary policy the important variable,its development once the deterioration will become the main force influencing the economic growth of china. Lian said,the European debt crisis is still in continuous fermentation,the international financial market turmoil has not yet subsided,accordingly,macroscopical economic policy of China especially monetary policy should also consider the changes in external demand,and not just consider CPI changes.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyHe points out,CPI as Chinese macroscopical economic policy especially monetary policy oriented index,subject to the following month tail factor decreased faster and global economic growth overall relatively weak influence,the overall trend will not decline,the basic will be maintained at 3% ~ 4%.”From the current development state looks,Chinese economy growth somewhat fall after a rise is in the affirmative,” Lian said,”but not to need the stimulation phase.” He said,considering the lag effect of monetary policy and other policies of the superposition effect of Chinese macro economic policy,especially monetary policy needs to take into account a variety of objectives,focus on a number of economic indicators to control. In the gross constrictive policy situation,monetary policy will not be further tightening.”Of course,this does not mean that the policy will be significantly relax,monetary policy shift condition still does not have.” Lian said. (Xinhua)
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March 18th, 2012
Since the end of 2007,I often hear friends is cut,at first is quite shocking,have the feeling,but listen more unexpectedly some “numb”. However,a few days ago,another good friend Wei laid-off,it shocked me.Previously most workout friend is the financial industry,the financial crisis from the financial industry and the heavy disaster area,natural unemployment. And David was MIT’s electrical engineering,in the Silicon Valley before and after working for 15 years,is the WirelessCommunication (wireless) expert,hold the core technology. Like David such technology professionals,past where are sweet pastry. Three years ago,David moved to ResearchInMotion (RIM top Canadian wireless telecommunications company in the United States Division) as research director,this is definitely a northern position,under normal circumstances,as long as they don’t go to retirement,absolutely no problem.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyThe day the United States dozens of high-tech companies including RIM,Sprint,Microsoft and SunGard synchronous redundancy,high amplitude is amounted to 15%,workout better is David such senior scientific research personnel. Thus the layoffs have spread from the financial sector to the high-tech industry,and even penetrated into the high-tech industry heart research room (big Wei led the entire research are removed).Only a short while ago,the United States is the science and technology personnel in the eyes of the Holy land. But when as a long-term business development department at the core R & D team began to blow,American innovation will be affected? I think,when the United States innovation talent began to drain,the United States set up long-term innovation mechanism could be affected,shrouded in the United States of America enterprise on the halo will also disappear.In fact,the United States and other countries of the world innovation gap is narrowing. As Singapore,Korea,Sweden and other countries to modify itsLawAnd the system,reduce the corporate tax rate,so that these countries enterprises become more competitive.For China,from labor-intensive to technology-intensive; coupled with the Chinese government from policy,capital of local enterprises tilt,many businesses are willing to employ well-paid American enterprises and technical personnel to drive their own R & D team. So when the United States enterprises because of the short-term economic benefit and close the core R & D center,then one can imagine these personnel will drain to other countries of the enterprises,which have many talents are Chinese,it is the big inning of regression.Two days before the big Wei calls,very excited to tell me,after the national day he will join the domestic wireless communications company,was responsible for the technical manager.
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March 18th, 2012
Page first: solar energy is inexhaustible,be inexhaustible new energyPage second: good is yet to comeThird: the secret lies in the uncle Sam’s second move Tang Min (data plan)Solar energy is inexhaustible,be inexhaustible new energy. However,because of the cost of solar power generation not only than the conventional thermal power,hydropower is much higher than the other,new energy,such as wind power,nuclear power and biomass energy power generation is much higher. Therefore,although China is the largest producer of solar panels,44% of the world’s solar panels production in China,but in the domestic use of only 0.73%. Despite the use of solar energy is environmentally friendly,but solar panel production is serious pollution. At present,we urgently need to build a good mechanism,so that the development of solar energy industry to get more benefit to our own.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyRecently,the author of travel to the United States,in a student friends at home to see his house roof was covered with solar panels,is simply a small solar power station. And he’s not only electricity does not spend money,making a small but. Then,how he came from the sun god gave the money to make out? Uncle Sam is how to turn ordinary families start invest in solar power? The United States government and what mechanisms to investors,power company,local government and the interests of all parties concerned.? These mechanisms on the future of China’s solar energy industry development with what enlightenment?My friend lives in New Jersey,Manhattan from more than one hour’s drive. A few months ago,at the state and federal government generous subsidies under the temptation,in his villa roof installed a small solar power station. That is the power station,but also is a set of solar panels and a changing DC into AC in a small device. In the good situation,this device can send 50 kwh of electricity per day,cloudy day to send more than 20 electrical degrees. Particularly interesting is,daytime power when his home meter turn to walk through the transmission line,the electric input of public power grid. Night solar power installations at rest,home use is power company electricity meter,then walk forward. This year down,this device can send nearly 10000 degrees,and the door is annual electricity flat. That is to say,his house all the year round all the free electricity. If the sun harvest,the TV University in electricity,he also can take multiple electricity sold to New Jersey power company. The United States hasLawRegulations,power company should unconditionally to buy all the electricity from his home. In this way,he can charge of electricity a year can save $1800.
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March 18th, 2012
In the face of China,we have analyzed various factors,finally,Deng Xiaoping said that only the development to solve problems in development. This sentence is in imperceptibly extended to “development is good sense”,but later seems to be misunderstood as only the velocity is the hard truth,especially in the emphasis on the GDP modernist era is even more so. I am in Xiushui Street and Wall Street in “tango” in one book points out Today,Chinese economy also defeated Xiao He Xiao He. The “Xiao He” who is? Speed. No speed,there is no catching strength,no current situation,but also caused many of today’s velocity field that. “Only the speed of” the current situation is many people attributed to officials too much,but the author is attributed to the boss is too much.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyInvestment easy boss,brave person use all sorts of policy loopholes,one not careful can become the boss. There are many cheater,hit one gun to trade a place,as long as the cheat money,also be the boss. Some scholars,using the knowledge,coupled with a bit of luck,in the late 90′s of the 20th century has rapidly become the boss.Indeed,his boss,competition ability is enhanced,but the “boss” of the competitiveness in addition to capital,finance,mechanization,intensive to change brought labor productivity’s progress,and fixed assets invest too much,plus the national financial policy from the long-term interest differential subsidies to capital,let a few people,places,enterprises rely on the power of relatively easy access to cheap capital,increase capital investment from the government to the people,from domestic to foreign investment. Because capital surplus,in many places,many industries,many products too much investment,vicious competition,he killed himself. Finally,the domestic market has no consumption ability,and no capacity,only outlet.Also the “boss too much” mode,so that the export price goes low ceaselessly,foreign accused China of dumping,in fact,is China’s internal malignant competition caused by. Enterprise profit is very modest,and not to please. To this,the author suggests to design a Chinese export commodity index,to supplement the current business and management in the information on the tip,to allow more enterprises to produce marketable products.The boss is too much,also led to the degradation of the abnormal phenomenon of migrant workers skills. Mechanic gradually shortage,especially senior technician. A similar phenomenon also,reading much,but the innovation of senior technical personnel has gradually become less. This is because we want the boss,because the boss get rich opportunity too much. In the eyes of some people,do the workers won’t have too much in return,and the sinking of the opportunity cost is too big. So do worker is easy,but to learn,to innovation is difficult; to diploma easily,to real knowledge is difficult; the rote called master more,do the real innovation,creation scientists less. These are because the boss is much,capital investment,but investment in working to improve the skills of the less. The social impetuous,”master”,so the fake is much,quality,reputation came out.The boss,competitiveness of excess,not only caused the economic order out of control,also bring international trade imbalance. Beijing Xiushui Street,everywhere is one of their own in the bargain,indirectly caused the excessive foreign exchange reserve today,fell into the dollar trap problem. Zhang WuchangSaid,keep a low wage system is China’s advantage,and market freedom chooses the salary,is consistent with the principle of market competition,in fact most conducive to expanding employment. However,he does not know is,Chinese workers without any wage negotiation ability,and the system of low wage practiced for hundreds of years,where it can easily be reversed. Especially,in China from planned to market,state-owned,private restructuring process,through a variety of channels can be the boss,but not in the press workers. Workers can bear,but the result is the boss,capital investment is much,product is superfluous. The ecological chain unconsciously appears unbalance.Possible solutions are available through the average land ownership way,let more people get more income and property,so as to control capital,thereby reducing the boss,let more people access to appropriate salary reward,let those good people,good people skills,invention and creation of better access to intellectual property rights protection. Only give knowledge more concessions,can let workers share more salary bonus,knowledge of the dividend,achieve safe working. In conclusion,even through the work can also obtain more capital investment,speculation,not too much in return. If this day would come,so China’s economy from at least the elements of competition will become equilibrium.
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March 18th, 2012
According to CCTV report,The Ministry of AgricultureAcceptance group just released,Yuan LongpingInstruction “Y two and No. 2″ with super hybrid rice test Tian Pingjun mu produce 926.6 kilograms,achieve our country large area of paddy mu produce record. (September 19th chinanews.com)Yuan Longping really magical,can the contemporary “shennong”! Recall that “satellite”,”how bold,how much production”,although is enthusiastic to catch hair left on earth,but how many people satiate belly into Communist dream. However,it will be a dream. Nowadays,we have entered the era of real super rice,Yuan Longping not only responded “who will feed a Chinese” of the century “ask”,but also the super rice dream step by step into reality. Realization of mu produce 900 kilograms,not just let National People’s surprise,it is annual increase production commissariat gross to will exceed 20000000000 kilograms,according to year average share of grain gross 400 kilogram computation,can feed 50000000 people. Modest says,this is Chinese heavy contribution toward the global village.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyWe thank Yuan Longping,but to let Yuan Longping. According to the Russian survey,according to the current decline speed,100 years after the Earth existing farmland will have zero. To see with the increasing shortage of water resource,together with rapid industrialization,urbanization process on farmland damage and rapid expansion of population,regional poverty and famine,but also face a variety of environmental disaster and the threat of rising sea level fall: land,vegetation,soil and water loss and atrophy,rivers running dry,rubbish encircle a city,land desertification ecological destruction,”but keep heart land,stay to plough with descendants” is not just aPublic welfareAdvertising,more is a precious land resource and protect arable land and called for advice.However,for a period of time since,the city changes a course in,”enclosure movement” with vigour and vitality,blossom everywhere. Central rural work leading group assistant group leaderChen XiwenOnce pointed out,in time of peace movement “and large village at all times and in all countries,there was no parallel in history”. Land finance under the impetus of the enclosure during the great leap forward if not checked in time,will inevitably lead to tragedy. This is not alarmist,bang and rise “farmer was upstairs” has caused discontent in the individual regions,even frequent violence. Whether the urbanization development drama “achievement in one’s post by fire” caused “syndrome”,or from the land to the market “black chain benefits,” or a storm with mudslides rolling in the Zhouqu war,all without exception in reminding and warning people: land is the largest social security,mother earth always be the fear.Yuan Longping’s 900 kilograms per mu could not but be have a maggot in one’s head,or how long,whether can reach 10002000 or even billions of kilograms? If only to “Yuan Longping” around a piece of land,and even do not need land,whether a sufficient earth full stomach food? Apparently,Yuan Longping was not Louis Liu as the magician,not mythology “grain master”,let the land and grain separated completely,and rising to meet the supply,also can only be the avatar in the era of science fiction. Therefore,the mu produce 900 kilograms,developers need not be glad,jointly from the mankind face crisis,China Resources and population situation,any time,we are not easily solved the food problem; any time,1800000000 mus red line must adhere to.
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March 18th, 2012
The Ministry of land and resourcesDisclosed recently,China will gradually expand the coverage of compensation for the use of state-owned land. Deputy chief inspector of national land Gan Cangchun said,the allocation of land resources is the ultimate goal of cancel land supply dual system,increase land supply and control ability. (the September 18th “capital times”)Land use system reform of our country,in the past under administrative intervention free indefinitely with foundation,introduce market mechanism,promote the allocation of land resources from the administrative allocation of supply gradually to paid change in supply. But as a result of the reform is still a lack of depth and breadth,transfer of free and paid to sell two coexist for a long time,the supply of land “double track is made form”. At present our country land resources allocation of market level is still high,there are statistics show,city free transfer of state-owned land to the use of units,in the incremental land supply accounted for about 85% of the.Recommended readingIn 2011 a spoof News NetworkPan: Q currency convertible (Figure) A shares a favourable turn needs one or two years[Politics]On the “new cold war”[Economics]Chinese stock market in ten years and ten years[Sociology]After 90 humanities accomplishment the highest?[Hot topic]The story behind the Star Award[Literature and history]Yang Yuying then blocked[Literature and history]In 1972 the North Korean golden age (Figure)Water: Guo Shuqing rescues the city view only when the storyLand supply dual system,there are “four deadly sins”: one is against the fair competition principle. Arguably,free transfer land is with low cost to meet the purely non-profit public demand,but because of the lack of effective regulation,some governments take is allocated,but the land built restaurant,built commodity house,walk in the for-profit or a for-profit edge,thus the strokes to sell land other economy main body formation of injustice.Two is to promote the rising of land price. In the context of limited land resources,land allocation largely diverted to enter the market resources,further exacerbated the supply. While the current land finance is still a lot of local government’s support pillar,a considerable part of the land is free transfer,means the other a small portion of paid transfer of land,to undertake more tax revenue task. Such costs,is tantamount to “government land,people pay”,land prices can not rise?The three is compressed rural land compensation. At present the government allocated land has two main sources,some from the government in the stock transfer,but most are from rural collective land requisition of land transfer in. As a result of the allocation of land and low cost,can not reflect the real value of the land,contracting of rural collective land farmer income compensation rarely,the masses have voices of discontent.Four is the formation of power rent-seeking space. In recent years,the public utilities free transfer land when,in addition to the public,many lay off one part land for the cadres and workers of levy,has become an open secret. As a result of the examination and approval authority in their own hands,some departments can often first come,first served,occupy the upper Sheung Shui gold plots. At the same time,because the land is free transfer,not only can the more,the better. The area,and only need to pay construction and installation cost. Earlier reports,the highest premium Guangxi Liuzhou the east coast of the Liujiang River,there is a specially designed for municipal Party committee,city hall,city National People’s Congress,city CPPCC leadership to build residential area,called the East garden. Each building in the area of 300 square meters,selling for less than half of the periphery of ordinary commercial housing.To sum up in a word,to cancel the land supply dual system is cancelled privilege system. In addition to the military,affordable housing,special sites,other sites should be paid use,follow the basic principles of market configuration resource,realize the land price market adjustment. Only if all the nonPublic welfareLand use will bear the same land costs,the abolition of certain unit land privilege,can we truly achieve the fairness and justice,promoting the rational utilization of land resources.
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